PokernHockey

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Everything posted by PokernHockey

  1. Honestly, I wouldn't even be to upset if we did lose him to an offer sheet and this little gem is why (from generalfanager.com) "For offer sheet purposes, AAV is determined by dividing the total compensation offered by the lesser of the length of the contract, or by 5. For contracts longer than 5 years, this will result in a higher AAV than expected. That means to hit 7.3mm where the compensation is 2 firsts a second and a third the cap would be: 1-5 years: $7.3mm 6 years: $6.1mm (7.6mm would push it to 4 firsts) 7 years: $5.2mm (6.5mm would push it to 4 firsts) Remember he is 22, so a 5 year contract brings him to his UFA year which team traditionally seem to try to avoid on longer contracts. I don't know what the Flames are thinking, but if the league called me to say someone offer sheeted him for 6.5mm, I would match it before they finished the sentence. If you are tossing an offer sheet you need to make it high enough that: The player signs it; The team is inclined to not match it, which is a lot harder to do when the team is not in cap jail. Because of that I am pretty confident that any offer where Calgary loses him would net us at least two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. I would trade one 1st and two seconds for those picks from the Oilers any day. Now lets compare the trades that brought the Flames and Oilers their new shiny D. The Flames got Hamilton, a 22 year old defenseman who put up 10 goals and 42 points in his third NHL season last year for for #15, #45, #52 The Oilers got Reinhart, a 21 year old defenseman who put up 7 goals and 22 points in his first season in the AHL last year (+1 assist in 9 NHL games) for #16, #33 So the Oilers gave up one less second for a less proven D man right? I mean, the first overalls were as close to a wash as possible, and how can you compare the "value" of #33 vs #45 and #52? Well I am glad you asked. Bright and early Saturday morning the Sharks picked up #31 from the Avalanche for #39, their second in 2016 and their 6th in 2017. We don't know where it will land, but I think everyone can agree that as of today the Oilers 2nd next year is at least as valuable as the Ave's 2nd next year. So in essence you could argue that the Oilers gave up #16, #39, next years 2nd, and a 6th in 2017. I submit for your approval, that the Oilers in fact paid more for Reinhart then the Flames did for Hamilton. From what I have read the Oilers also offered more then the Flames did for Hamilton, but since their threat of an offersheet was meant to twist Bostons arm and force them to move him, Boston wanted a premium from the Oilers. So the Oilers helped us get him for so cheap! I think I love the Oilers new management more then the old group.
  2. If his contract was signed after the trade deadline that would be the only option since he could not play in the playoffs either in the NHL or AHL under a "professional" contract. Since he was signed before then and sent to the CHL the flames are allowed to call him up and play him in either league after his CHL season is over. It is part of the transfer agreement between the leagues. A relevant example from Calgary, and this is going back a number of years, but Iggy played a playoff series before his rookie season after his WHL team was eliminated. Personally I would send him to the AHL until at least the NHL regular season is over. If he is dominant at that point bring him up to the NHL for playoff experience, if he isn't let him try to help take Adirondack deep and get experience that way. I think he is skilled enough that you can offer him that carrot and tell him it is up to him to prove he should get to play with the legitimate belief that it is within his reach. Plus there have been a number of dirty games recently and I am not sure I want him exposed to that against teams that are fighting with us for their playoff lives. I expect the kings will be vicious on April 9th if the playoffs are on the line for them. I would much rather introduce him in the playoffs after he has a few professional games under his belt against Vancouver, which isn't a rough team, or St. Louis, who I can't feeling threatened enough by the Flames to feel the need to try to hurt players. Next year he is either in the NHL or OHL again, so you might as well use the only chance you will get to develop him in the AHL and it goes with the "earned never given" mantra. I expect it will be in the NHL next year personally. Also the emergency call up thing I don't believe works anymore since teams are able to carry as many players as they want on their NHL roster (as long as they don't call up more then 4 players, so they would need them up as of the deadline). I recall reading a few times that teams want to abbolish the rule and one of the primary arguments is that there have been a number of instances where teams have had to play with a short bench at the end of the season because they didn't have any call ups left after sending guys back down (why we kept Porier up even though we didn't have a spot for him in the lineup) or had to many injuries.
  3. if they sign an ATO they get to play in the AHL playoffs, and get the nominal amount that they would get paid (if anything). by doing this they each got 90k +1 games salary +1 year burned on the entry level contract (so more money earlier if he pans out). If your the player, which do you choose? and more importantly, if you don't choose the NHL contract route, why would you sign with the team today, rather then wait until august and get your pick of teams? I agree, from a development perspective if he played the AHL playoffs that is theoretically better (they could lose in 4 straight, etc.), but there is no advantage for the player going the route. the flames traded a year of the contract in exchange for them signing. both sides win. because of when they signed they cannot be sent down anymore this season. all a two way contract means is the player gets different salaries in the NHL and AHL. it does not protect the player from waivers, or otherwise change the terms of the contract beyond salary for all intensive purposes.
  4. I don't have official word on this, but Hanowski last year did not play any games in the AHL, only 5 NHL games. if they were allowed to send him down for playoffs, i can't imagine why they wouldn't have.
  5. To my understanding, coaches (and GM's) don't actually get fired, They simply get asked to work from home without any contact with the team, you know, for work life balance and to reduce the teams carbon footprint from commuting. Technically the Nucks would have 2 head coaches in that situation, Torts job is to stay home. In order for another team to hire him he would have to be "released" from his contract by the nucks, at which point both parties tear up the contract (letting the owners off the hook for the $$$) Technically, if the nucks fired torts and their was bad blood, They could refuse to let him take another job in any league that has an agreement in place (similarly to how Euro leagues release players). However I can't see a team doing that. first there is the money but more importantly, good luck getting a new coach who is any good if you are the team that stopped a coach from getting another chance. I remember hearing that the Flames first year with Butter, they technically had three head coaches.
  6. Although I was originally a proponent of keeping him on the flames, if he is getting forth line minutes I could not agree with this more.
  7. I think these three articles are very poinient for this discussion, and they address the counter arguement to people who point to his SV% and GGA as clear proof that Berra is not an NHL tender. http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/shot-quality-reveals-rasks-true-value/ I would argue that Berra (and Ramo, as well as to a lesser extent JMac since the team was playing better when he was up) would be pretty high up there for the difficulty of shots he faces. The two previous articles: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/introducing-the-shot-quality-project/ http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/introducing-the-shot-quality-project-part-ii/ Warning: These are discussing advanced stats, so if you believe that GAA and SV% tell the whole story about a goalies skill or don't believe in them, Not looking at anyone in particular on THAT one, you likely won't like the thesis or the dissonence these articles will raise with your way of thinking. Interesting fact I was told the other day: based on the speed of an NHL shot, it is impossible for a human to react to a shot from the hashmarks. So if a shooter rips a shot from in close, it is all about anticipation/dumb luck. In my mind its pretty easy to accept if you think about it, however I wish I could find the academic study that explores it in far more detail then I ever have.
  8. Your right. if the flames don't cut him tomorrow they are waiting far to long. there has never before been a goaltender who did not play in the NHL until he was 26 who had any success. Especially if he was playing in Europe. nor has there ever been a goalie who's career start was anything but storybook who ever became someone. especially when they play behind a team that has terrible D. Further, after one bad game, he cannot possibly become anything good. there is absolutely no way that if the flames give up on him today it could ever come back to bite them. by no means am I saying he will become any of those players. However if you can legitimately be making the predictions you are you really are doing the world a disservice by focusing your attention on how the flames are mismanaging life.
  9. that is a very common clause in Euro players contracts. especially when they get released from a contract in another league early.
  10. Hey, You can't fault the_people on his post. He never said the Oilers play like a TOP junior team.
  11. The counter argument is that by staying with a Billet family he will likely be more grounded. You think Hudler makes him take out the trash or other "age appropriate" jobs around the house, etc? Pretty unlikely. Staying with a non-hockey family may help slow down the inevitable head swelling that would come from being a top performing rookie in the NHL as a 19 year old. Or it could make it worse if they treat him like a god.
  12. Oh forgot to add, we should start talking about his chances for the Calder this year, they look pretty good so far. I for one hope he gets it,I don't think the flames have ever had a Calder winner? It would be a nice stamp for him to start with that as the corner stone future for the Flames. Not only have we had a calder winner, we had the Calder winner who caused the NHL to institute a maximum age for rookies. markov, 90 (at the tender age of 31). In addition Nieuwendyk, 88, Sutter, 86. If you want to include Atlanta we also had Willi Plett and Eric Vail as well. Sorta crazy to think we had 3 of 5 in the 80's, especially when you consider 1 was a second round pick and the other 2 were late round picks. Edit: You beat me to it apparently, but I believe Drury was drafted by the Nordiques. We received him and Yelle for Morris and McAmmond. [Mod Edit - Fixed My Grievous Error - Pyro ]
  13. 1. I don't think you say you got beat out of the spot but rather you say we are sending you down so you get meaningful minutes. Next year we think you will stick with the team, however for this year we would like you to work on X,Y,Z to make that happen. 2. The underlying assumption should be that Ottawa would trade him to a contender, If the flames do not believe he will be traded, that does change things, however i think it is pretty likely he gets traded whether Calgary influences the process or not. the 67's are not going anywhere this year, what exactly do they stand to gain from keeping him vs trading him for future assets. ALL teams in the CHL go through fairly frequent contender-pretender-rebuild cycles. 3. I don't anticipate his minutes going much above his current #'s until at least the trade deadline. I don't think he has jumped ahead of Backlund and Stajan will most likely be ahead of him as well. If the coaches agree with you then they should keep him. 4. Although I agree that is likely to be a factor, it should not be. At the end of the day, I must admit I am biased towards sending kids back down in their draft year with very few exceptions. And honestly, my main reason has nothing to do with their play. 18 year old bodies are still growing let alone filling out and they are playing against men far bigger then them. With talent which is good enough that they could/should stay in the NHL in their draft year, I just don't think it is worth the risk of an injury that could impact their career.
  14. Really good article on this topic: http://flamesnation.ca/2013/10/11/sean-monahan-proceed-with-caution
  15. I think this is a very good question, and I think the answer is actually pretty easily a no based on his play thus far. The kid has flashes of brilliance, but he is clearly underwater when he does not have the puck. 9 games is really hard to judge a player based on points, players have hot and cold streaks, and lots of talented young guys get off to an early starts while vets normally take a while. Does anyone honestly expect Tomas Hertl to be first in the league in goals, and between him and Galchenyuk represent 2 of the top 3 scorers at the end of the season? Having said that, I think Monohan has also shown marked improvement every game. IF he keeps that trend up, I think he either would be playing well enough that he should stay, or at least would be close enough that with the game by game improvement you take the chance. With his current play, what happens in January when the vets throughout the league are firing on all cylinders. Food for thought for the "his stats show he should stay" crowd if the end of his nine games was today, and everything projected out where it is now his stats line would be 7 goals 5 assists and 11 points and -2. (before anyone points out that 7+5 =12, both goals and assists rounded up). Pretty good stat line. of course that also suggests that he will end the season with 62 goals, 41 assists and 103 points, -21. I hate to say it but we can probably expect his points totals to drop from their current rate, which also likely makes his =/- drop. less points means his minutes drop, etc as well. I think his stats are indicative of his NHL talent, not of how ready he is for full time duty today.
  16. Has anyone found a youtube link for the back in the saddle documentary?

    1. C_worthy

      C_worthy

      I believe it was taken down for copyright reasons

  17. Just to follow up on this. I got offered season tickets in (i believe) the fourth round of offers at the end of August. I just purchased a condo, so I decided to forgo the tickets. I got an email today, once again offering me season tickets. And I can get tickets in the red, white, orange, or green section, not all of which are even in my wait list level. which means that they went through all hot house members and they were unable to sell all of the season tickets for the upcoming year, so they are trying again. I don't recall what number I was prior to last year, but I know I didn't get the offer to buy tickets once, let alone twice. I was #416 on the wait list in January. 6 months into the rebuild and season ticket holders are already dropping like flies, and that is, as you pointed out, without any of the outside factors of the 90's.
  18. Fair enough on the economic thing, however Gas was near a all time high near the end of that rebuild and fans didn't start showing up until long after kipper jumped on the scene. What is the excuse for the last few seasons? Calgary has by all rights had one of the strongest economy's in the world since 2008. Those games that half the stands were empty in the past few years were still near sell outs because of pre-purchased tickets. If people were not going to games that were already paid for, what do you think their incentive is to pay for those same tickets? I grew up as a flames fan through the 90's playoff hiatus, so to be fair, I was not around people who would actually be buying the tickets in any significant quantity. I spent a significant portion of my money on Flames swag/tickets, but to be fair, short of car insurance, my movie theater wage was 100% disposable income. However, I distinctly remember as late as January 2004 being told off, etc. whenever I wore my flames jersey to high school. I purchased tickets and sometimes had trouble giving them away to my friends! And these were kids at the age when theoretically most people are most passionate about professional sports teams then they will be as adults! In my experience, it was not that people could not afford to go to games, it was that they couldn't be bothered. Although being an adult the economic situation is quite different for me and my friends then it was back then, the lethargy that grew over the last season from coworkers, friends, etc. is quite similar to my experience back then without the vitriol for things that are not to your liking that comes with high school. To be fair, some of that is likely to blame on the lockout however the lockout does not explain why it continued to grow as the season went on. Whatever precipitated it, the problem (fans not going to games) remains. I hope I am wrong, but at the end of the day, I still feel like that is a pretty significant, and valid, reason for ownerships trepidation towards entering a re-build until last year.
  19. Feaster has stated he has not asked for, or gotten a definitive answer from kipper for the simple reason that if he (feaster) asked him "today" (this was about a month ago), kipper would retire. The reason it is delayed is because the Flames are hoping he changes his mind over the summer. My understanding of the cap recapture rule is different from yours; If kipper plays, the Flames recieve a 5.833m cap hit, and pay him 1.5m. If he retires they get a 4.333m cap hit (since it is 6+ years the lou rule comes into play), but no actual money payout. As either way the Flames are over the minimum cap payout, assuming we can agree that they will not hit the ceiling, whether he retires or not does not affect Calgary from a cap perspective. Where it does affect them is in the crease. Considering how Calgary is expected to occupy the bottom of the standings this year, I am betting the reason the Flames want to do everything they can to keep kipper from retiring is out of hopes that he plays and it keeps them somewhat respectable in losses. Last season after the trade deadline the dome was far from packed, and by the last few games it was half empty, and that was with most of those seats being pre-sold before we traded iggy, etc. Every year in the current playoff hiatus after the flames are out attendance drops noticeably. During the infamous 90's-2000's drought the flames almost moved due to lack of ticket interest. I cannot imagine how bad attendance (and ticket sales) will be if not only are we losing, but we are consistently losing badly enough that the outcome is never in doubt, Considering we are expected to finish in the bottom five for the first time in Flames history. by all rights attendance should be worse then the past few seasons. Most fans on this board like to claim that Calgary supports a re-build, and they may very well be correct from the perspective that the average Calgarian believes it is needed and the right thing to do. However Calgary certainly have demonstrated time and time again that they will not support it with their dollars.
  20. 4) he goes to arbitration and then signs long term next year when he holds more leverage then he does now (since he would not longer be a rfa) 5) they sign a multi-year deal before arbitration. (far more likely then you think) arbitration is one of the very few "sticks" that RFA's hold. And he filed right at the end of when he could. If he had filed on day 1, and then refused to take calls from the oil, I would agree with you. But as it stands I think you are reading into it far further then you should be. Every year, a significant minority of players who file for arbitration actually get in front of the arbitrator. almost all of them resign with their team before that. I cannot think of the last player that filed for arbitration and then got traded in the weeks leading up to the hearing. More likely then that would be they trade him midway through the season before he becomes and UFA if they cannot work something out long term.
  21. Once again, I am here to provide valuable translation so everyone can be on the same page! When you asked.... In regards to this post... All you had to do was either read my post (which he linked) which said... To which you said... (A simple "thank you" would have sufficed, but maybe that is only in Calgary that we are friendly like that when someone tries to help) OR simply read the first line of his post where he said... and infer the perhaps the next part of the post was in regards to the aforementioned post. Did that help? I really want to help.
  22. I am going to try to take a stab at translating connor to what everyone else here speaks. By "enlightened" he means "believe the oilers are destined for greatness because Katz says so". So his statement really was "try to believe the oilers are destined for greatness because Katz says so before trying to tell me how I am incorrect in my analysis." If you come from this paradigm, your clearly idiots DD/FF52. You should apologize.
  23. maybe that's why, as their future GM, he realizes the team will already have all the D they need in a few years?
  24. As per hockey's future, the flames prospect #s are currently: (prospects/nhl jobs= % of nhl spots) G:3/2=150% RW:5/4=125% LW:11/4 =275% C:7/4 = 275% D:9/6=150% WE NEED TO DRAFT RW!! MAYBE DRAFT ONE GOALIE!!! NO CENTERS!!!!! LW!!!!!!! or especially D!!!!!!!!! (I would have included D with the maybe pool, but this uses connor logic. and everyone knows connor doesn't believe in D.)