ABC923

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Everything posted by ABC923

  1. Don’t forget, Talbot was a vezina quality goalie two years ago and might be done. Goalies are voodoo...
  2. I think that’s a good point. There’s always a concern with older players that they are regressing, but sometimes guys just have off years. Shooting well below career norms is usually a sign of that, and he could easily turn it back around.
  3. I don't think Hanifin will ever match Hamilton's offensive prowess, but the fact that Hanifin plays regularly on the PK when Hamilton didn't is good indicator to me that he is better in his own end. Glad to have him on the team.
  4. I like stats, so I thought I would post a little thread with some on pace stats for players I find interesting just to see if the eye test matches the score sheets. All stats are after game 29 of the season, with 53 to go. Gaudreau: Pts: 105, Goals: 34, 40 PP Points. Previous Career Highs were 78 points, 30 goals, 21 PP points. Monahan: Goals: 48, Points: 85, 17 GWG Previous Best: 31 Goals, 63 Points, 8 GWG. Ferland: Goals: 32, Points: 46, PIM:21 Previous Best: Goals: 15, Points: 25, PIM: 50 This line is on fire all around. Can they sustain it? I think not quite, but expect all three to set career highs in most categories. SM is becoming one of the best snipers in the game, and one of the most clutch. Backlund: Goals: 20, Points: 51. Previous Best: 22 Goals, 53 Points. Tkachuk: Goals: 12, Points: 50. Previous Best: Goals: 13, Points: 48 Frolik: Goals: 14, Points: 31. Previous Best: Goals: 19, Points: 44 There is a perception that the 3M line is not producing as much offense this year. The truth is the only player sliding is Frolik. Both Backlund and Tkachuk are on pace to roughly equal their career highs from last year, while Frolik is scoring at about 3/4 the pace from his career high from last season. Brodie: Points: 45, +/-: -25, Minutes: 24:27, Corsi: 49.5% . Previous Best: Points:45, +/-: +15. Career Avg: Minutes: 23:01, Corsi: 49.6% Hamonic: Points: 9, +/-: -18, Minutes: 20:07, Corsi: 49.3%. Previous Best: Points: 33, +/-: +15 Career Avg: Minutes: 22:31, Corsi: 48.7% A lot has been said for how bad this pairing has been this year. But if we look at just Brodie, we see he is on pace to tie his previous best in points, and has a corsi bang on his career avg. The only notable stat difference is plus minus, and while it is atrocious, aside from two years spent as Giordano's partner prior to the arrival of Hamilton, Brodie has always been a minus player. An argument could be made that he has almost always been the player he is this season, but that Gio made him better. Hamonic on the other hand is on pace for his worst statistical year from an offensive standpoint, but is doing better defensively. His Corsi is up, and last season he racked up a -21 rating in just 49 games played compared to the projected -18 over 79 games played. He's hitting a bit more than last season (but less than 2-3 seasons ago) but blocking fewer shots. He's always been a negative player in the Give-away/Take-Away measure. His PDO is only around 97%, which the fancy stats people will tell you means he has some bad luck and is due to progress a bit. But he always has low PDO so... Anyway, maybe we are getting more or less what we should have expected from this pairing.
  5. Halfway Point of the season, so it's an easy time to update these numbers. Here we go! Top Performers (Not just raw totals, but guys having better than average years) JG: 44G, 74 A, 118 Points, +34 SM: 44G, 56 A, 100 Points, +22 EL: 38G, 56A, 94 Points, +50 MT: 36G, 58A, 94 Points, +18 Gio: 12G, 64A, 74 Points, +54 Decent Performers (Guys doing a good to very good, but not outstanding job this year) Janko: 12G, 20A, 32 Points, +10 Hanifin: 6G, 32A, 38 Points, + 10 Brodie: 8G, 22A, 30 Points, +38 Backlund: 16G, 24 A, 40 Points, +28 (lower production that normal, but not by a huge margin) Hamonic: 6G, 18A, 24 Points, +25 (best season in the last 4) Slackers (Guys I would expect more from) Neal: 8G, 8A, 16 Points, -22 Bennett: 12G, 14A, 26 Points, +2 (given the minutes he receives, I expect more) Frolik: 22G, 5A, 27 Points, +16 (Good goal scoring numbers, bad total points, hard to evaluate due to injuries and healthy scratches) Ryan: 8G, 16A, 24 Points, -6 (not too disappointed, but with so few minuses on the team this year I was hoping for more from him) Unlisted players are rookies and others who are doing fine given the ice time and role they have been asked to play for the most part.
  6. So 18 games in and the penguins find themselves in last place in the east, and tied for second last in the league. Is this an early season blip, or a sign that the core is finally aging out and the team is beginning to slide to irrelevance? Having had so much success over the years, are sid and the gang just not motivated enough anymore? Or is goaltending the only real issue? Very curious to see how things shake out there.
  7. Just a quick comparison on the trade so far. Lindholm: 37 GP, 17G, 22A, 39P, +19, 57.3% Corsi, 20:35 TOI, Most used forward on PK, 3rd on PP, Excellent FO Ferland: 28 GP, 11G, 5A, 16P, +3, 54.8% Corsi, 15:07 TOI, Doesn't kill penalties, 6th on PP, Poor on FO Hanifin: 37GP, 3G, 13A, 16P, +4, 54.3% Corsi, 20:55, 2nd most used D on PP (8th overall), 2nd pairing on PK, Hamilton: 35 GP, 3G, 7A, 10P, -13, 61.1% Corsi, 20:13 TOI, 2nd most used D on PP (10th overall), Minimal PK use Adam Fox: 11GP, 5G, 15A So far, we have the better forward by a large margin (on a decent length and money contract) and the slightly better defender (on a longer and cheaper contract). The wildcard remains Fox, who is on pace to completely wipe out his previous best seasons records and looks to be a really solid future. In the now though, great trade so far.
  8. Assuming the expansion draft was tomorrow, who would you protect? Obvious choices are Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Tkachuk on forward, and Hanifin and Valimaki (will be eligible by draft date), probably Rittich for goal. That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defense. I'd probably protect Backlund, Dube (again, will be eligible), and one of Bennett or Jankowski. On defense it's a tough call. You only get to protect one of Gio, Brodie, Anderson and Hamonic. If we are going by today's value, you probably protect Gio, but he'd be 37 by the time the draft takes place. Brodie seems to only really play well when paired with Gio, so would he be worth it without Gio being around? Probably protect Hamonic. Tough choice.
  9. Seattle Hipsters?
  10. Conroy's name has been floated several times in the last couple years when GM positions open up. I'm not sure how important his current role is, but it isn't just the fan960 talking heads raising his name, so he must be doing something right.
  11. I think we agree for the most part. To me, it was simple interference as the play had moved on, so I would have assessed a 2 min minor penalty on the play. I didn't see any targeting of the head, the force was not over the top (no flying elbows or launching movement with the arms, etc.). Sure, if you hit someone no where near the play maybe there is intent to injure, but Wilson had been just stripped of the puck. Hit was just late, nothing more, nothing less.
  12. I hate to see anyone get injured, but if he had been wearing his helmet properly he would have been fine. Was it a dirty play, I suppose, definitely a 2 min minor in my book. But the hit didn't target the head, and wasn't overly violent. All the damage was caused by his head hitting the ice after his helmet flew away. I sometimes wonder why players even bother wearing helmets if they aren't going to tighten it up properly or make sure it is secured correctly...
  13. Here’s my Nylander theory. He will either cave and sign a team friendly contract last minute or... Leafs don’t sign him, then trade his rights to a bottom feeder team for assets. Maybe a team like Philly. The receiving teams gets the rights to a top flight forward while actively making their team worse because the guy literally can’t play this season, thus improving their draft lottery odds. Kind of like Buffalo when they traded for an injured evander kane.
  14. I was worried about Neal, but I won't write him off as Brouwer 2.0 just yet. We'll see where he's at by the end of the season. If we can keep his numbers serviceable, maybe Seattle will take him in the expansion draft in 2020...
  15. Klimchuk was not doing well this season in the AHL. He was behind Mangiapagne, Foo, Lazar, Graovac, Rychel, Quine, and a few others. Maybe it’s just a bad season, but when you are behind that many guys and the odds of any of them becoming a flames regular are low, it makes sense to make the deal from a standpoint of what helps the farm team now.
  16. Looks like he's cooled off quite a bit. Now sits at 33 points in 26 games, so roughly a ppg over the last 12 games. Still very good, and is currently 11th in league scoring.
  17. And Gio is on pace for 75 points. Not likely to get there, but he will probably be around his career best (56 points in 2015-2016), assuming he can stay healthy. Those two guys just seem to bring out the best in each other.
  18. Kessel did well playing on Pitts third line for a few seasons. No reason a third liner can’t put up 20 goals.
  19. Yeah, Stone signing that 1 year deal screams "I'm out of here!" Things change of course, and they haven't been nearly as bad as predicted, but still. I see the sens extending Duchene as more of a face saving move after everything they gave up for him last year. PS. No way Melnik shells out the money for both Duchene and Stone. 'Salary floor and not a penny more' is likely plastered all over the GM's office.
  20. Some of the coaching changes were simmering after last season. Chicago was rumored to be mulling it over, and the oilers supposedly under-performed. Of course, I wouldn't use anything the oil does as a sign of the times, since better management decisions could be made by throwing darts at a board of possible choices. I do think that the changes are happening now in the hopes of saving the various teams seasons. To your second point, I think the answer is yes for at least some of the teams. Both CHI and LAK are past their primes, and have been for at least a season now. No retooling is gonna fix those boats, they are sinking. ANA is also close to the tipping point, but have some decent young players they could build around. I still think STL is due for a rebound, but some of their core is aging out. PIT seems to also be fading fast; their core players are all getting old, and they have next to nothing coming up having traded away almost all their 1st rounders for years. They'll probably hang around for a few years (especially if Murray rebounds), but they might be in for a long rebuild in the not too distant future. I think these are exciting times. New teams are about to become winners, and we could well see a Toews or Doughty traded in the next year or two. My prediction for this year is that both cup finalist teams will be teams that did not make the final four last season.
  21. Sure, but that's a them problem
  22. Personally I'm on the leafs side on this one. We don't need another 8+ mil comparable for when Tkachuk is negotiating next summer...
  23. Man, a decade of darkness as they call it, one year of hope, and now the beginnings of another lost season. I guess Quenville wasn’t looking for this kind of a challenge yet.
  24. I just listed the top 6 point getters, and the others like Neal and Bennett are guys I am looking at for improvement. Frolik falls in the mushy middle so to speak, although he’s been really hot and cold this season. Strange to see him with 0 assists too. Currently projects to 28 goals and 28 points.
  25. Just thought I would revive this thread to have a quick peak at where our players are trending at the 1/4 mark of the season. These five guys are killing it! Tkachuk: 44G, 56A, 100 Points Monahan: 48G, 48A, 96 Points Gaudreau: 28G, 68A, 96 Points Lindholm: 44G, 44A, 88 Points Gio: 8G, 72A, 80 Points The drop after that is fairly steep... Backlund: 12G, 24A, 36 Points Another bright point: TJ Brodie. On pace for only 4 goals and 24 points, but leads the team in +/-. I know lots of people don't think much of +/-, but for a defender I think it's decent. He's on pace to be a +40, a far cry from the deep minus he was last season. Ryan is also having a decent enough season. He may only be on pace for 8 goals and 20 points, but that's honestly not terrible 4th line production and a big step up from Stajan. Guys I expect to up things are Backlund, Bennett (12G, 24 Point pace), and Neal (12G, 16 Point Pace). Bennett seems to be flirting with taking a step, while the other two have a history of better performances in recent memory. I'd include Janko (4G, 12 Point pace) too, but given the limited role he has been handed this season, it seems unlikely he will match last year's production at this rate, unless he and Neal really start to click. Oh, and I know it won't happen, but if Gio keeps going like this he will deserve the Norris imo, but will be ignored mostly as people flock to Burns or Doughty or something.