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Crzydrvr

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Crzydrvr last won the day on November 14 2016

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About Crzydrvr

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  1. At this point, I would brace myself for Tkachuk making over $8.5 million on any deal over 5 years in length. The market is leaning towards young cost-controlled players as no longer being the discounts they used to be. If he gets an 8 year deal Chucky could make $10 million a year. If he's only signing for 5 years, I could see the cap hit falling in the $7.5 to $8 million range, but that's a tough call to make. This might go until September so y'all can laugh at me in 3 months when he signs for $7.5 million x 6 years (which would be as team friendly as things could get in today's NHL).
  2. I just wanted to chime in more on the Pelletier pick versus a Lavoie, Suzuki or Kaliyev (especially as 2 of those 3 are now on divisional rivals). I'll preface by saying that I have no crystal ball here. I sit here right now saying that Pelletier is a good pick compared to what was available but the reality is he isn't a finished product and a lot of that will come down to his development and coaching. As a neutral observer, I have no input over that development process which will be 90% of what he'll turn out to be so whether it works out or not isn't in my hands, but unfortunately in 5-10 years when people look back on this pick they won't remember where he is right now, but where he is at that point in time, and evaluate the pick on that merit alone which isn't entirely fair. Pelletier is the right pick to me because while he isn't a diamond just yet, he has had the pedigree and the attitude to develop from day 1 of his season. He was the 3rd pick in the QMJHL draft in a very strong class for that league, especially at the top end (for comparison's sake, Alexis Lafreniere who will be the 1st pick in 2020 was the top pick in 2017, and fellow 2019 first rounder Samuel Poulin was number 2. Those were the guys he was competing against). But he's also a workhorse and I haven't heard anything less than him being a character player and the heartbeat of his team, in addition to the already concurrent offensive skillset. Does he need time? Yes. I don't think he'll be in the show for at least 2 years (which is now a fairly long time for a first rounder in a cap world where ELCs are worth their weight in gold). Is he a guaranteed star or bluechip prospect? No. He went 26th for a reason, namely a lack of strength and polish in his all-around game. And while I sit here saying he's a good player, I think he's not necessarily an exceptional talent and the odds of him becoming a 1st line player are slim based on that. But I do know he'll work his butt off and if he fails it's more likely due to systemic reasons from the team and his overall situation than from lack of effort, and if I'm a GM with faith in his development team then I'd absolutely shoot my shot for a guy like Pelletier. Lavoie in particular was constantly compared to Pelletier because they played in the same league against the same teams and had a similar pedigree. For me, it's striking because in many ways he's the exact opposite stylistically. He's got all the tools to succeed with his length and scoring ability, although he needs to work on the skating. But he was awful without the puck for 2/3rds of the season and the conversations around him were always concerning his effort and engagement both on and off the ice. I'm not here trying to bash Lavoie but he dropped because of those issues and it's hard to gloss over those when talking about him as a prospect; despite a killer playoff run he regressed in the finals and so when evaluating him the question is this: can you be the organization to get the most out of him and push him to be what he can be? He's Brandon Saad-esque and like Brandon Saad, IMO he needs specific situations and specific external stimulation in order to be pushed into fulfilling his potential, and the same goes for Kaliyev and Suzuki. There are 2 situations where they'd have the highest chance of becoming that top 6 forward: 1. Join a team with one or more of the top 10 players in the game, a team where they know what real ability looks like, and where the vets wouldn't take guff from a kid who's good but wouldn't put in the effort to get there. 2. Join a team that's already won the Cup and has multiple vets who have already reached the peak, who know what it takes to win, and wouldn't take guff from a babyfaced prospect who doesn't put in the same effort. There's a commonality there: experienced vets and a strong leadership group that even the most braindead kid would recognize and respect. Guys who don't need you to win, know that and make sure you know that, and make sure that if you want minutes and respect you would have to earn it through your play. Saad was drafted to Chicago in 2011 after they had won the Cup already and had arguably 3 top 10 players in Kane, Toews and Keith on the roster as holdovers. He also dropped to the 2nd after being highly ranked all year, adding more motivation on top of being put in a position to succeed. There's a few teams that have the prerequisite veteran and leadership presence in the league: Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA, and San Jose all strike me as teams that have the best chance of turning water into wine. All of them have great vets and/or at least one player that is considered to be in the elite of the elite level of players, like a Crosby, Bergeron, or Kane. A couple more teams have elite-talent players, top 10 in the league or at least debateable, and deep rosters to go with that: Tampa Bay, Washington, St. Louis Colorado, and Winnipeg have players you could call the best and/or the depth and support to ensure that players have to beat out a high-caliber talent to earn minutes (and the Caps and Blues are the most ecent champs, which always helps). The Flames are not quite either of those teams. They definitely haven't gotten over the hump or have any players with household names. Gio and Gaudreau are the closest but Gio is getting up there in age by the time anybody from this draft is interacting with him on the active roster and Gaudreau is an offensive wunderkind but probably not the kind of player to emulate if you're a young player. So for this organization, the level of risk for taking on players with work ethic or character problems is higher than if they were respected around the league or the wider NHL fanbase to the level of a Boston or Pittsburgh. That's gotta be taken into consideration if you're Brad Treliving or the scouts. Lavoie and Kaliyev have now had the indignation of dropping to day 2. If there's any motivating factor, that's it right there, and that's just the start of a long road to becoming NHL players. They wouldn't get that same motivation at 26 to the Flames. Lavoie doesn't need to be a lead dog on the Oilers and they do have McDavid and Draisaitl, so there's a chance they hit a homerun there (and I think it would be more likely with the Oilers after being drafted in the 2nd than with the Flames in the 1st). Same with Kaliyev/Suzuki. But there's legitimate concerns for me around all of them and it is more likely for all of them to disappoint in their career than for even 1 to become a top 6 forward just based on the odds and the history of talented guys with motor concerns. All 3 are guys I would say don't quite have the internal motivational skill to push themselves to be great on their own (nothing necessarily wrong with that, 95% of people are in the same boat) and need external motivators to give them that edge. Feeling slighted or cheated is one possible motivator, being pushed by the peers around you is another. Even if Pelletier busts and one of the above become a top 6 guy, I still would consider Pelletier the justifiable pick. Situations change and what works somewhere else might not work here and vice-versa. I know people are scared he's the next Poirier and I can't sit here and say he won't be (although again, Pelletier had the pedigree long before he played juniors as a potential top prospect compared to Emile), but at the very least I think that he has the mental fortitude and the prerequisite talent to make it with the support the Flames can offer more than the other 3.
  3. Good players with skill and size that are generally gimmes don't really drop this low. Always BPA, if that's a smaller guy then so be it and you can move pieces around later. There's no benefit to getting size if it doesn't come with smarts or competitiveness or skating or some combo of the 3. EDIT: I might rag on Monahan sometimes but as far as value for his draft pick, he's very much a home run at 6. There aren't many guys drafted after him that I would take over him. The only 2 I would even think about are Bo Horvat, taken 10th and Josh Morrissey, who was picked 13th. Drafting Monahan wasn't the problem, it was developing Monahan that is, and luckily there's still time to fix that.
  4. I like the pick. Of those forwards from the mid 20s and on, I would have picked Tomasino first, but Pelletier is a very good player and probably the best remaining at the Flames spot. Everyone here has warts but of the Lavoie, Kaliyev, Suzuki group Jakob Pelletier has the lowest level of concern over some part of his game, while still having top 6 forward upside. He's got high upside and immediately becomes the best forward prospect in the system.
  5. Gotta remember some scouts will fudge their rankings a bit to "hide" prospects who they like a lot, especially the less-well-known ones. Guys who are universally considered 1sts but are NDs are plugged in to push certain guys down, which misconstrues the TSN rankings. Bob's lists are still the best, but because they rely on the teams themselves who have no incentive to be 100% transparent, there's always a few guys here and there that deserve to be ranked higher but are not and vice-versa.
  6. Not a fan. I think he's a very junior-esque player, he is a talented goal scorer with great hands but his skating isn't that close to elite, his spacing defensively is off, and his problems are exacerbated by his lack of all-around effort (a.k.a. only gives a crap in the offensive zone). To put it mildly, he's a bit of a *****. Insert whatever 5 letter swear you like. Kids like that can turn it around in theory, but from my experience those types of prospects don't ever turn around for you. Kids who don't already have a heart and balls of steel need a kick in the Hash Rate to get it, and usually that ends up being a trade after a few years of struggling. He's a perfectly normal and even likable guy otherwise, but by the time players like that turn into quality assets they've already moved to another team and you don't even see the benefit. Kaliyev isn't the worst in this draft by any stretch in that regard but even in a world where draft prospects who have warts or problems with consistent effort tend to have that ignored in favor of skills among the public eye, Kaliyev is noticeably not an energetic player. Things like that are innate traits and habits aren't easy to get rid of, and a guy who is willing to bail on a puck battle often finds it a slippery slope because the moment you are OK with losing once, what's the difference in losing another? What's the difference between this corner scrum and the last one? I could be wrong, but I'll take a kid with fire to go along with the skill, because it's not like his level of talent is so high I'd live with the rest of his game. Give me the kid who would rather die than quit on this play, every play. To be honest, that's partly why I'm not a huge fan of Suzuki either. You don't have to be big or strong to be a pain in the Hash Rate to play against, so guys who play a perimeter game or expect others to do the work are huge pet peeves with me. I don't ask for much but you better be willing to try and do everything you ask of your linemates yourself or else you're a selfish player.
  7. I do like Hoglander and he'd be a guy I'd look at for sure, but I honestly don't think he makes it to 26. If I had a say, I would be gunning hard for a high-reward forward to drop to us. If any of Hoglander, Newhook, Tomasino, Nikolayev or Suzuki fall that far it'd be hard to pass up one of them even with their individual warts. Of course things change quickly and if a similarly high-potential D drops like York or Soderstrom falls as well then I'd be hard-pressed to pass one up (BPA above all else), but there's enough open-endedness with the guys from 10-30 that I think at least one of those forwards is available.
  8. It isn't wrong at all to put your best foot forward. Organizational influence and culture is important and you have to gauge what is most important to you at the given moment, it's too easy to say that one way or another is better when reality is much more nuanced than that. At the time, the Flames decided that a no-quit mentality was worth more than a higher spot in the draft, and given that the 5th overall pick was Elias Lindholm who didn't break out until this season, it's pretty safe to say that the end result would be basically the same because at that point it would have been very difficult to move into that top 4 that late in the season. I get into this with my coworkers a lot, whether you can draft superstars with late picks and whether that's a sustainable way to build a winning team. It's not impossible and yes you see the odd 4th rounder turn superstar, especially in Calgary. But it is much much harder because while you can find superstars late in the draft, those are rare enough that if you are reliant on late picks solely in order to become a contender you end up relying on lady luck a lot more. High picks aren't valuable because of the reward, they're valuable because of the (lack of) risk. You're almost always guaranteed a capable NHL player if you're drafting in the top 5, and a good GM and coach is able to turn that into success on a more consistent and reproducible basis than teams that miss on their high picks or trade them and end up having to try and find top 6 and top 4 players with 3rds, 4ths and 5ths. Right now the Flames have a couple of glaring holes as a result of being the latter, rather than the former. One is that the picks they do have aren't really that impressive in the grand scheme of things. Monahan, while a good 6th overall pick, has had his overall development stunted and isn't a great all-around player. Bennett has been a disappointment relative to draft position. They didn't have a pick in 2015 because they traded it for Dougie Hamilton. 2011 was Baertschi, 2010 was traded for Jokinen, 2009 was Erixon who left and then busted and 2008 was Greg Nemisz who also busted. Between 2008 and 2015, the Flames drafted exactly 1 top 6 NHLer with a 1st round pick, and some of those were real good picks to work with. That is the core of this current team and that's a big reason for why this team has, up to this season, struggled to put together consistent depth options up front and on the backend without trading for or signing older/established NHL players. Bring that up to 2018 and the number goes up to 2 with Tkachuk and a possible 3rd in Valimaki. The Flames have to decide what they are going to be, and whether or not they can win with this group. I think they're closer than this team has been in almost 30 years, but there's also a gap between the Flames' best players and the league's best players, and all of the Flames' top players have some sort of flaw that needs addressing before you can really look at them and say "I'm comfortable in believing they are favorites to win the big one". That was my thought before the season and I don't think that changes because of the Flames' regular season. Again, you don't need to tank to draft a star, just look at Mathew Barzal out of the Islanders who went mid-first or David Pastrnak of the Bruins who went late 1st, but you need to be lights out with the opportunities you get and the Flames haven't done so. I do believe that the players this team is built around are capable of being key players on a contender, but I didn't see the 100% confidence, poise and buy-in needed to do so at any point this season (Johnny floating around and being the last man in on your TV screen in the playoffs, for example, has been happening all year to some extent). The disappointment comes from raised expectations which is somewhat unfair, because our playoff result is basically what we were expected to do before the season began. Colorado is also a better than 8th place team who suffered a horrendous stretch of games. What the Flames DO need is a star player in a different mold than a Monahan or Gaudreau, someone who is capable of taking some of the offensive and defensive load away from the other core players. I had hoped that Bennett would be that guy but with what we have now the only thing the team can do is knock this upcoming draft pick and next year's pick out of the park. This team can win and a lot of it will come down to summer development and good trades. Also, let me end with this: I don't regret winning the games ever. Where the Flames have shorted themselves is using the assets they have, not missing out on the assets they didn't get. MacKinnon is a huge favorite of mine but he wasn't making it here; he's just very very useful as a measuring stick for what the team is trying to build talent and character-wise.
  9. Nope, because that just shows the gap between the Flames and a Cup winner is 3 whole wins in a series. Seems easy, but those 3 wins are an overall massive gap and won't be made up without contributions from everyone in the lineup. There were too many passengers and not enough real gamebreakers on this team to make it work. I remember watching MacKinnon destroy the CHL in the playoffs in 2013 and thinking if he brought half of what he showed there consistently in the NHL playoffs he'd live up to his billing as one of the best gamebreakers drafted in the 21st century, and here we are.
  10. Hello 2018! Hope everyone's doing well!

  11. Mock Draft made it in time for the 1st pick! Congrats to Nico Hischier, what a rise for the prospect over the 12 months.

  12. Part 3 of my Final Rankings are up! I wasn't able to finish everything in time, so if you have any questions please ask and I will do my best to answer or respond accordingly!

  13. Part 2 of my Final Rankings has been posted! That's my top 31, with more coming (probably).

     

    If you have any questions, ask away!

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