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About cinlow

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  1. I think you are mixing up the things "Sutter's system" can cover with other factors people are excited about this season. Yes, I expect Sutter's system to improve the defense as that was a clearly stated objective. I do not know if this system will improve the power play but I certainly believe that Lowry and McGill will be better coaches than Preston ever was in that regard and thus our PP should be able to be more effective. Realistically with our PP ranked 21st last year it is a fair statement to expect to improve on that poor ranking. I do expect Sutter's system to be better than Keenan's was in other facets such as puck possession, transition game and forechecking. The Flames have talented players but last year it did not seem like they had plan as to how to deploy that talent to do all the basics in the game. Our breakout was weak and our break in was worse. In my mind I do not think seeing our team become very good at the "basics" as a bad thing since those are the things that you build wins from. I also do not expect Sutter's system to necessarily help the kids flourish but I do think that a young coaching staff where most of the coaches have a lot of experience in the AHL and WHL will allow them to be very effective in using our young players instead of just burying them in the 4th line. If all of these other things come together and we have a more defensively responsible team with a solid PP unit, a good break in, strong break out, fast transitional game, etc. Saying "we will be difficult to play against" is a pretty obvious statement. As for past results, I think Sutter had a great coaching year last year. The Devil's crash and burn with 90 seconds left in game 7 was very unfortunate but I would not summarize his coaching from last season on that small of a sample. Keep in mind that Sutter spent a significant part of the season coaching a Devils team that had lost Brodeur and they did not implode the same way that the Canucks did when Luongo went down.
  2. Well, I guess first you would have to establish what system the Flames had before offensively, defensively, transitionally and in special teams. Some people would say the Flames had hardly any system at all last year so Sutter having any system at all should be an upgrade. This may not translate directly to more Goals For for the Flames, we were already #8 last year in that stat but I would expect that the goals we get would be more consistent and have a bigger impact in winning games since we should be preventing the other team from scoring. Basically that means I would rather win games 3-1 than lose games 6-7. I would also like to never see an extended scoreless streak on the power play. Also, I think some people would suggest that the Red Wings deploy a system that excels in all aspects of the game...
  3. Bourque was one the second line for the majority of last season so I don't see why he would need to be on the top line to repeat last year's production. Mainly we just need to see him stay healthy and I can see him having a huge year under B.Sutter. Bourque strikes me as a prototype Sutter player for a defensively responsible, puck position & fast transition style game. I also would expect Glencross, Moss and Boyd to all do better under Sutter & Co. than they did under Keenan.
  4. I think the first step is in guessing how Bouwmeester will compare against himself. Factors: - The Flames are a more talented team and can score more goals. Last year the Panthers were #17 in Goals For and #24 on the Power Play. The Flames were #8 in scoring and #21 on the Power Play. - Another major factor is how effective the Flames power play will be under the new coaching staff. I think it is pretty safe to assume that the Flames power play is going to be better than it has been over the past few years (40+ PP scoreless streak). If we have a well run power play that the team actually practices then one would have to guess that Bouwmeester is going to be given a lot of chances to earn points. - Phaneuf is a better partner than anyone Bouwmeester was paired up with on the Panther's roster and that factor alone will likely allow Bouwmeester to improve upon himself offensively. - My conclusion is that Bouwmeester is set to have a "break out" year offensively simply because of his new situation. On the other hand, Bieksa could be looking at reduced power play time with Schneider on the team. I don't know if Canucks fans would agree but I can see Salo-Schneider being the #1 PP unit, at least while those guys are healthy. Even if Bieksa doesn't see reduced PP time I do not believe there is any changes on the Canucks that will really give him a chance to improve on last year's stats. So if Bieksa is likely to repeat his 40 point season then I think Bouwmeester is set up to have the better offensive season between the two of them. I also do not agree that Bieksa was the more efficient producer. When you look at the TOI stats for these two guys you are not factoring in the fact that Bouwmeester managed to put up 42 points while also being his team's #1 shut down defender and penalty killer. Those are jobs that Mitchell primarily covers on the Canuck's roster and Bieksa would be #4 on the depth chart for defensive roles. When you consider that Bouwmeester was putting up these kinds of numbers while being his team's #1 shutdown defender I think that says something in regards to being a more efficient producer. If that isn't enough of a statement though then I would look at Shooting Percentage. Bouwmeester has an 8.2% versus Bieksa's 7.2%.
  5. Sutter's system with the Devils was very effective offensively as well as defensively. We saw that with a number of their players having huge offensive years. If Pairse can have a 45g, 49a, 94p season under this system I see no reason why Iginla cannot do the same, especially since Iginla has shown the ability to produce on a defensively minding Flames team. One of the key features of the system is meant to be puck control and fast transitions. If Sutter can get fast transitional hockey out of a largely unknown defensive group in the Devils I can only imagine he will have vastly greater results using guys like Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Regehr and Sarich. I would also expect that Giordano, Pardy and Stralman could all find success as well as this system is not built on individual skill. Our strength on D + Sutter's system should do more than just prevent goals against us and shut down other team's scoring. It should also turn into fast break outs of our zone, successful break ins to our opponent's zone and setting up plays that can result in goals.
  6. [quote name='Hockey_Canada1 wrote: "Slighty" more points? 20 vs. 37 is almost double. Edler is a better skater, passer, has a rocket from the point, played 4 more minutes per game, and was by far our best defenceman in the playoffs (8 points in 10 games, played over 22 minutes per). Playing a lot of games and being on a winning team 5 years ago doesn't make you a better defenceman.This one is laughable. The are both consdiered offensive defencemen so stats should be a good comparison here.One had 32 points in 67 games as well as 17 in 23 when traded to a playoff contender, immediately improving said team's PP drastically while playing almost 21 minutes per game. The other had 19 points in 58 games while just 16 minutes a game. And to use your arguemtn for Sarich, one has more experience, more developed and a stanley cup ring. O'Brien > Pardy. Yes. Stralman likely will be a better player, key word is "will be". Right now, Lukowich is more reliable in a bottom pairing role. Therefore he wins this matchup. cinlow wrote: Sarich is aging? Really? If you put Sarich onto the Canuck's team he is actually right in the middle of the pack age wise and in the middle of what most hockey analysts would consider his "prime" years (28-34). Sarich is younger than Mitchel and very comparable in skill and ability. Considering most people thought Sarich was playing exceptionally I doubt you saw him showing anything other than that unless you were watching through some blue coloured glasses. Wow, I though he was older than he is. But be that as it may, I saw something out of his last season that I hadn't seen before. A lingering injury maybe? Mitchell is twice the shutdown defenceman Sarich is and ever will be. Sarich had a broken foot. Some people might label that a "lingering injury" but most people would call it a broken bone in the foot that Sarich played through. Honestly, it really doesn't sound like you know anything about Sarich at all so your assessment of him can't be very accurate. Schnieder vs. Giordano. Leave it to a nucklehead to take two defensemen and try to rate them purely on offensive production. Giordano is a puck moving defenseman but I wouldn't call him purely offensive. He still has the ability to play effectively in his own zone and play 5on5 hockey. Schneider is described as no longer being very effective defensively and at the age of 40 he would be mainly deployed as a power play specialist. For that reason alone I would rate these guys as a wash especially when you consider the difference in how much they are paid. Even without bonuses Schneider takes up double the cap hit that Giordano does. Hockey_Canada1 wrote: cinlow'] I would say that Defensively the Canucks basically have 5 'second pairing defensemen' and no true top pairing caliber D on the team. Also, it is unrealistic to expect to keep that group as is since you are over the salary cap. One way or another your depth is going to have to be diminished. By one. Take out any one defenceman out of the Canucks core right now, and it the depth advantage still stands. I'm actually blown away that anyone is coming to the Flames forum to brag about defensive depth and claim to have better defensive depth than the Flames. Do you guys really just have no clue what has been going on around here over the last few years? If you take away one of the Canuck's $3M defensemen then the comparison changes pretty dramatically: Bouwmeester - Phaneuf Regehr - Sarich Giordano - Pardy Kronwall - Stralman Pelech - Negrin Palin - Aulie Brodie - Seabrook Erixzon vs. Mitchell - Bieksa Edler - Salo Ehrhoff - Schneider Lukowich - O'Brien Nycholat - Baumgartner Rome - ?? I admit that I am pretty lacking in my knowledge of the Canucks depth chart but really the Flames are not just stacked in our top 4, our depth goes all the way down to our D men on the Heat. I would be just as comfortable calling up Pelech or Negrin to play as I would be to have Kronwall on the ice and both Pelech and Negrin are potential top 4 defenders. The silly thing though is, bragging about who has the better 5/6/7th D man when the Flames clearly have a stronger top 4 who will be logging the majority of the ice time.
  7. [quote name='Hockey_Canada1 wrote: Anything else? How about the rest of the defence?Edler or Sarich? Schneider or Giordano? O'Brien or Pardy? Lukowich of Stralman? But you can't really compare player to player, because each team has a different philosphy on building a defensive core. Both of which are effective. Sarich >~ Edler. Edler puts up slightly more points, Sarich is better defensively. In the end I would say Sarich has the edge for being older and more developed, having more experience, being an NHL Ironman and a Stanley Cup champion. Schneider = Giordano Schneider is certainly a smarter player than Giordano and has way more offensive skill but that is what you get when you pay significantly more for a bottom pairing D man. In reverse, Giordano has less of a cap hit and is younger, faster, more physical and will be less of a liability in his own zone. Weighing the pros and cons of the two players I would call them a wash for a bottom pairing comparison. O'Brien > Pardy I really have no idea how to compare this. Pardy was our #7 guy last year and is being promoted to #6 but I would guess O'Brien has the advantage and is paid over twice as much. Lukowich vs. Stralman Lukowich is a career bottom pairing D man and from what I read Stralman is a young talented player who has the potential to develop into a top 4 defender and really only lacks strength to complete his game. Lukowich may be the more reliable #7 D man today who can hang out in the pressbox with the best of them but Stralman will be the better player to have on your roster. Hockey_Canada1 wrote: Defensively, they have a top 3 as good or better than anyone in the league. HOWEVER, defensive depth cannot be underrated. The grind of the season can wear on the big 3 playing a ton of minutes, and it showed a bit last season. Can Giordano or Pardy handle 20 minutes a night? I don't know. Sarich ain't no spring chicken, and he is going to have to start showing his age sooner or later. I saw more of it last year than I did in the past from him. Sarich is aging? Really? If you put Sarich onto the Canuck's team he is actually right in the middle of the pack age wise and in the middle of what most hockey analysts would consider his "prime" years (28-34). Sarich is younger than Mitchel and very comparable in skill and ability. Considering most people thought Sarich was playing exceptionally I doubt you saw him showing anything other than that unless you were watching through some blue coloured glasses. Hockey_Canada1']Defensively, we have essentially 5 top 4 defensemen. We don't have that legit #1 Norris candidate. But depth throughout the entire line-up instead. We don't have to depend on that one guy to be your !3 guy in every situation, but a ton of guys that can play roles and play them well. Our Powerplay should be vastly improved over last year, considering one of Schnieder, Salo, Ehrhoff, Edler or Bieksa won't even make the 2nd unit. There are 3 cannons from the point, as well as Schneider's experience and vision on the back end. I am excited to see the combinations we would see with the advantage. I would say that Defensively the Canucks basically have 5 'second pairing defensemen' and no true top pairing caliber D on the team. Also, it is unrealistic to expect to keep that group as is since you are over the salary cap. One way or another your depth is going to have to be diminished.
  8. Your assessment is all wrong. Just because you guys are paying $7.5M for your 5/6/7 Dmen doesn't mean that your D core is stronger. Top 4 defenders are called "Top 4" because they play the bigger chunk of ice time and are utilized in more of the impact situations in a game. Paying big money for your bottom 5-8 defenders makes about as much sense as paying big money for 4th line forwards and AHL players. As you can see in most of the discussions about Primeau, paying big money for 4th line players isn't a very popular move and Primeau is cheaper than all 8 of the Vancouver D men who are currently listed under contract. Also, bragging about moving a slow and aging Ohlund to replace him with Schneider is a joke right? You didn't actually say that with a serious face did you? Because if so you need to get your facts straight about who is slow and aging. Your knowledge of Bouwmeester sounds second hand at best. Especially after your Ohlund comment! I can't believe that you are bragging about going younger, faster, more skilled with your D core and then trying to downplaying Bouwmeester as an upgrade over Aucoin and Vandermeer. For the amount of ice time Bouwmeester can play and for the amount of skill he is rated as having he is realistically going to be a bigger impact by himself than Ehrhoff, Schneider and Lukowich would be combined just because of how strong Bouwmeester is in both ends of the ice and how often he will be used in high pressure situations. Conclusion. Paying $23M evenly between your "top 8" defenders is not better than paying $23.6M for your top 8 defenders with your top 4 making significantly more and your bottom 4 making significantly less.
  9. Jeez, neither of those records are very good but the Flames were horrible in those "Game 2" situations. 3-10-1 = yuck. Great overall analysis of the two team's travel schedules. I would guess that the Canucks are getting the better schedule with less overall travel because they have to accommodate for the Olympics and thus had more attention put into their schedule. I just don't see Bettman intentionally playing favorites for any Canadian team that doesn't start with 'Le' or end with 'diens'. I think that this is going to be an interesting test for the coaching staff to build their training program and set up their off-days to work around these schedules. I wonder how much of an adjustment Brent will need after his time with the Devils and their relatively easy travel schedule. I will be really interested to see if our new defensively responsible system will take the burden off of the individual players and hopefully leave them more energy for those Game 2 nights. Also, having Bouwmeester should really help take the burden off of big minute munchers like Phaneuf who looked obviously tired when trying to log 30 minutes in a game. I can only imagine how Phaneuf was performing in those Game 2s.
  10. I understand what you are saying Don but with the reality of the Salary Cap it makes sense to at least look at the comparison about 2 players versus 2 players instead of 2 players versus 1 player. It doesn't need to be taken past that point but it is a valid argument to make that with their new contracts the Sedins are a much larger salary cap hit. If that trade were to go down right now, the Flames would have to clear $5.2M in cap space, which just happens to be the exact amount that Jokinen is earning. So while I do think that Iginla can be a bigger impact player by himself than the twins combined, it would require him to go back to his form of 2 seasons ago and hopefully forget about last season where he turned into more of a support character. As it is, I will be very interested to see how the Sedins vs. Iginla + Jokinen thread pans out (when it finally gets made)
  11. I agree that last year was a bad year for comparing Iginla by himself to the twins. The year before that though the twins combined for a whole 44 goals compared to Iginla's 50 and Iginla had the same number of GWG as the twins did combined. So really when it comes down to it, if I had to choose between the twins versus Iginla + XXXXX, where the unnamed player could put up 20-40 goals on his own, I feel that the Iginla pairing is better to have regardless of who he is with. If Iginla has another off year I may change my mind but I guess it would depend on how Jokinen performs while playing with Iginla. PS. I really hope Iginla bulks back up this summer.
  12. I wouldn't... Often Iginla has more impact than both of the Sedin's combined. Like in the Sedins vs. Tanguay+Iginla thread from a couple years ago, Iginla was carrying the entire bet by himself. The only reason to go through with that trade is to get younger but I really don't think that is an issue we need to worry about with Iginla for 5 more years.
  13. While I agree that AV has more coaching experience and the Canucks are used to AVs system and that those factors will give the Canucks the advantage early on in the season, I do believe that Brent Sutter has a higher potential and brings exactly what is needed by the Flames. The Flames are packing on a huge defensive effort. Just going from comments from last season to this season you can draw up a feeling for how these changes will play out: Leaving the team: 1) Keenan - bad Xs and Os coach, didn't have any kind of system to mold the team around 2) Preston - bad special teams coach, came up with 1 power play last season and kept using it after other teams figured out how to shut it down 3) Aucion - pretty good defenseman but had to be carried defensively by Regehr to be effective. 4) Vandermeer - tough and steady defender but slow 5) Bertuzzi - defensive liability and turn over machine (I don't entirely agree but that is a common sentiment about Bert) 6) Cammalleri - amazing scorer, not amazing in our own zone. 7) Lombardo - not a good scorer but a very solid PK / defensive center with a lot of speed. 8) Roy - bad enforcer, okay 4th line player Replacing the above: 1) Brent Sutter - solid system coach that runs a defensive responsible team 2) Lowry & McGill - rookie NHL assistant coaches who are good at teaching and engaging their players. Lowry = upgrade on Preston. McGill is probably equivalent to Playfair. 3) Bouwmeester - massive upgrade on Aucoin and frees up Regehr to partner with someone more effective. Very effective at moving the puck & playing a transitional game. 4) Pardy - He was already with us last season but now he effective takes over Vandermeer's spot. Not really an upgrade, yet. 5) Moss -> Sjostrom - Moss takes over Bertuzzi's spot and Sjostrom takes over Moss' spot. Overall a huge defensive upgrade to the forwards. 6) Jokinen - Full season of Jokinen to replace a full season of Cammalleri. Much better in his own zone and in breaking out than Cammalleri. 7) Sjostrom & Dawes - effectively replace Lombardi on the PK and in checking line roles, probably replace Lombardi's point production as well 8) McGratton - top 5 enforcer, bad player When you factor in the player changes as well as the coaching changes, I think the Flames have their ducks all lined up in the same direction. Overall I think we upgraded talent wise but our biggest upgrades seem to be in our addition by subtraction. We eliminated the majority of our defensive liabilities (Aucoin, Vandermeer, Bertuzzi and to a degree Cammalleri). The people we replaced them with may be as good or slightly less talented but are hugely more effective defensively. The predictions is that we will have slightly less scoring production but I think that if our coaching factors in with a very strong transitional game then we will be able to generate a lot of scoring chances from fast transitions and breakouts.
  14. I'm not really interested in the comparison between Kesler vs. Bourque since it results in comparing a winger and a center. When it comes right down to it, we can compare Kesler to Bourque as they are equivalent talent / pay grade players but in the lineup Kesler's opposite is Langkow and Langkow is the better player hands down. A) Flames top 6 forwards and scoring. I think our top 6 scoring can be very similar to last year's as far as scoring is concerned. 1) Yes, we lose Cammi and that is representing 39 goals from last season. We gain Jokinen though for a whole season and while he did represent 8 goals in the short time he was with us last season, the main thing is how he will perform this year with a full season as a Flame. If he returns to '07 form and puts up 90 points, most of us will be saying "Camm-who?". 2) Bertuzzi is being replaced by Moss. He should be easily able to put up 15+ goals and aim for 44 points since that is only really a 4 point increase from last season. 3) Lombardi is replaced by Glencross. Their point totals from last season are already comparable. ----------------------------------------------- Flames bottom 6 forwards and scoring. I think we are going to see a bit of a downgrade in scoring depth here. 1) Boyd needs to get a chance to step up here. Regardless of which line he ends up on he needs to progress from his 11g/11a season. 2) Nystrom needs to follow suit and step up as well. I assume he will be promoted to the third line which means more minutes and more time to try to score. 3) Primeau needs to stay healthy, get 5-10 goals and help our other new fourth line players do the same. ----------------------------------------------- Flames and being scored on. From the perspective of the forwards I think most fans here think that with Bertuzzi gone and Cammalleri as well to a degree, we are going to be stronger defensively. We lost a step when we traded Lombari but Jokinen has been pretty good in the defensive zone and we now have added Shoestrings (Sjostrom) to the mix who is supposedly going to add another PK / shutdown forward. Defensively we have lost Aucoin and Vandermeer who were both pretty heavily criticized last season. Aucoin needed to be carried defensively by Regehr and Vandermeer was slow (but I thought he was pretty solid). Replace Vandermeer with Pardy and Aucoin with Bouwmeester and really the only problem is that all but one of our defenders is a left handed shot. Defensively though I expect that we are going to be faster and smarter simply through the addition of Bouwmeester. Finally the Brent Sutter effect. Bringing in a new head coach and sending Keenan packing is going to have a pretty profound change on the team. I think the best way to try to measure the trend of where we expect the Flames to change would be to look at the http://forum.calgaryflames.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=11112&view=findpost&p=377961' target="_blank">final results of the Flames vs. Canucks bet[/post] from last season and factor in how the Devils did in comparison to see the kind of results Sutter will go for. For simplicity and time I am going to cut out some of the scoring stats. So the trends to look for as a result of the coaching changes will hopefully show the Flames dramatically improve in goals against in just about every situation (Even strength, Power Play, Penalty Kill). I would expect us to be more disciplined and taking less penalties. Team Save % should go up which would mean that our goaltenders are better supported and about the only down side is that we should see less goals for our team.
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