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Cba Talk - Lockout Sept 15th, 2012 - Jan 6th, 2013


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Poll: Cba Talk - Lockout Sept 15th, 2012 - Jan 6th, 2013 (34 member(s) have cast votes)

Your prediction: How long will Lockout 2012 last?

  1. No lockout this yr (8 votes [23.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.53%

  2. Minimal time lost - just camp/preseason schedule effected (9 votes [26.47%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.47%

  3. Significant time - be back starting Nov/Dec (6 votes [17.65%])

    Percentage of vote: 17.65%

  4. They push right to the drop dead date this yr - Around Christmas/New Yrs (7 votes [20.59%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.59%

  5. The season will be Lost (3 votes [8.82%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.82%

  6. Season lost plus some of next as well... (1 votes [2.94%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.94%

If the season is lost, who wins the 2013 Draft lottery?

  1. There will be a season - draft based on standings as usual - so probably Edm. (23 votes [67.65%])

    Percentage of vote: 67.65%

  2. Has to be Edm even if the whole thing is a lottery (1 votes [2.94%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.94%

  3. Brian Burke (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Pittsburgh (2 votes [5.88%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.88%

  5. Phoenix (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. Other (8 votes [23.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.53%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 DL44

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 04:46 PM

Lockout or no lockout... That is the question...

Well, probably more accurately the question may be - It's coming, so how long will it last this yr?

A Lockout:
The cons - Obviously fans are robbed of their favorite sport. Owners and players aren't making money this yr. Players entering their prime earning yrs miss out on a yr of their career's high water mark. Risk losing sponsorship dollars and the casual fan.

The pro - hopefully an improved economic model allowing for a top to bottom financial stability and competitive balance leading to greater earning power and revenue-generating ability down the road for both sides.

..........

So... anyone wanna predict some of the contentious issues?
- Player percentage appears to be the big one - sitting at around 57%

With that being the key point... every thing else becomes a pawn for both sides...

- The new 4-conference schedule
- Olympic participation
- Free agent age
- Waiver and player movement rules
- Salary implications of waived/retired players
- Contract length and structure.. i.e. the retirement contracts
- RFA compensation
- Draft rules
- Maximum Fines, supplemental disciple
- Player buyouts
- Guaranteed contracts
- NTC/NMC's, and player movement rules in general
- The Salary Cap floor
anything else?

I'm thinking the league will end up bending over with every peripheral issue to get the player % down... But we'll see how it works out.

We should quickly find out after the playoffs and after their first posturi.. err... bargaining session what each is looking at... i think those points listed above are probably the main pieces in the game.

#2 TheAce

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 02:30 PM

I think the main issues for the owners will be getting the 57% down to 50/50 or atleast 52%. As well as the min salary cap. That is killing alot of teams and forcing them to over inflate players salaries.


Sadly I could see this getting ugly because I know many of the players feel they bent over and took it up the rear last time and dont want to be losing anymore. It would be a crushing blow to the NHL if a lockout did happen as they seem to have some good momentum in ratings and fan approval.

#3 DirtyDeeds

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 10:29 AM

It is time to ask the question. Why aren't they talking? Is there no sense of urgency here?

Mr Bettman: are you going to leave this to the last minute? The players association has already started drawing lines(saying no to realignment) in the sand.

Time to either renew for another year or give notice you want to renegotiate.

Good time to bump this thread.

#4 DL44

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 12:32 PM

It is time to ask the question. Why aren't they talking? Is there no sense of urgency here?

Mr Bettman: are you going to leave this to the last minute? The players association has already started drawing lines(saying no to realignment) in the sand.

Time to either renew for another year or give notice you want to renegotiate.

Good time to bump this thread.


Correct - No sense of urgency yet. Yes, they are leaving it to the last minute.

There is no option of renewing... the CBA is set to expire. The options to renew already happened a couple/few seasons ago.

But this last minute thing isn't/shouldn't be a surprise... It always happens that way. Meetings that occur without looming deadlines are just for posturing and basically probing the other side. It just sets the table for pressure meetings later on.

Bettman recently made a non-specific statement that Fehr and himself will soon be probing each other. But serious penetration will likely begin late August. Neither man wants to be the first to bend over, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. heh heh

Also I think both sides want to wait till after the initial free agent frenzy before meeting. Owners want to put their teams together, and players want to get contracts set going forward. Then both sides will know what the landscape next yr looks like, and they can then work around that.

#5 DirtyDeeds

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 03:29 PM

Correct - No sense of urgency yet. Yes, they are leaving it to the last minute.

There is no option of renewing... the CBA is set to expire. The options to renew already happened a couple/few seasons ago.

But this last minute thing isn't/shouldn't be a surprise... It always happens that way. Meetings that occur without looming deadlines are just for posturing and basically probing the other side. It just sets the table for pressure meetings later on.

Bettman recently made a non-specific statement that Fehr and himself will soon be probing each other. But serious penetration will likely begin late August. Neither man wants to be the first to bend over, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. heh heh

Also I think both sides want to wait till after the initial free agent frenzy before meeting. Owners want to put their teams together, and players want to get contracts set going forward. Then both sides will know what the landscape next yr looks like, and they can then work around that.


How can cap/floor teams reasonably offer contracts when they don't know how much their budget is going to be? Especially when a team might be considering in taking on a contract like Roberto Luongo's. I can see a bunch of teams with lots of cap room or knowing they have money to spend, but isn't this just limiting the teams that might be in a position to make a concrete offer?

#6 Carty

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 06:23 PM

This is just more of the same old BS from both Bettman and the players union...

Both sides know fully well how the negotiations "should" work and what the potential ramifications of things going sideways are...

One side has to make the first move, and it by rights should be Bettman that initiates the beginning of negotiations simply because he is the one that accepted the job of supposedly running the show... Then again, the NHLPA is also capable of opening up the discussions... Someone has to make the first move...

It would be nice if either side grew a set and did this in the next week or so, that way the cards are on the table before the draft, so teams have a better idea of how far apart the opposing sides are and how the cap and other factors could play into things...

#7 Zirakzigil

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 07:04 PM

No lockout. The NHL will get 50% revenue sharing and offer the NHLPA Olympic participation in return. The NHL has all the cards to play. Salaries have gotten out of control again and fans, especially in the USA, arent going to be behind the players if they get greedy.

#8 Flyerfan52

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Posted 15 June 2012 - 07:18 PM

Both sides know they can't play hardball as losing even part of a season lessens interest in the markets they are trying to grow. The areas with the strong interest can be counted on to come back but not the fringe 1s. That could result in movement of franchises & possible retraction. Neither side wants that as it results in loss of NHL jobs (NHLPA side) & untapped TV markets/merchandise sales/fan interest (both sides due to the possible revenue).

Both leaders will posture but a middle ground will be reached. The players will get the green light to go to the 2014 Olympics & the % of revenue/cap might drop a bit (on a sliding scale to accommodate current contracts). If revenue continues to grow even a smaller % still results in a higher cap & more $s in the players pockets. It could even be conditional (like the picks in many trades) based on a growth in revenue of x resulting in a decrease of y.

The length & allowed front loading of clearly unachievable contracts will be discussed & probably adjusted slightly downwards as it helps both sides (opens more jobs for emerging players as the old 1s can retire to be replaced by the new & slows the GMs that sign the ridiculous 1s). Even the rumored 1 contract, 1 year amnesty floating around works for both as the players that get bought out get most of the $s & are still free to sign new contracts while the GMs have more money for new signings. The teams can actually spend more to solve a problem but @ the end the players stand to pocket more. Only those that bankroll the teams are actually losing money & mostly they own the teams that used to not care about the cost if it results in the SC.

Both Bettman & Fehr have big egos but hopefully the mandate from both sides clients prevent them from getting in a peeing contest. Then it could be resolved without losing even 1 game.

#9 Flyerfan52

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 11:50 AM

The NHLPA reps & alternates are meeting in Chicago next Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday to name a negotiating team.
Since the draft will be over this hopefully gets the negotiations underway.

#10 DL44

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 03:39 PM

The NHLPA reps & alternates are meeting in Chicago next Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday to name a negotiating team.
Since the draft will be over this hopefully gets the negotiations underway.


To add to that i think i heard the Board of Governors is meeting today in Vegas...

The 2 sides have been exchanging info the last couple of months. Neither side apparently wants to make a big deal about any sort of kickoff to negotiations.


The possibility of the NHL taking over the Devils subsequently owing two of their league's franchises doesn't look good for the perception of the league's economic strength. Owners' ploy for leverage? heh heh... let the games begin... and then let the hockey games begin.

#11 DL44

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 01:55 PM

CBA talks are speculated to shortly start after the PA meets next week in Chicago.
So likely just after the initial UFAs signings as speculated earlier....

#12 ifiwaschucknorris

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 05:02 PM

I don't think we will lose any regular season games. We will probably see the percentage come down to 50-52. Salary cap floor will be lowered significantly. Bettman will threaten contraction for these points. I think the rookies will get thrown under the bus and the players union will trade away an increased Free Agent age. Look for the majority of the money points to go the Owners way and the Players getting the non-monetery concessions.

#13 Flyerfan52

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 08:47 PM

I don't think we will lose any regular season games. We will probably see the percentage come down to 50-52. Salary cap floor will be lowered significantly. Bettman will threaten contraction for these points. I think the rookies will get thrown under the bus and the players union will trade away an increased Free Agent age. Look for the majority of the money points to go the Owners way and the Players getting the non-monetery concessions.

The guarantee they can go to the 2014 Olympics without penalty will be counted as a win by the Russian contingent. They include many top players in the league.
All others want to be on their national team in the Olympics & winning Gold as it's 2nd only to winning the SC.

That will be 1 of their main demands which Bettman anticipated. That's why the blather about suspensions for any play that went without the blessing of the league.

The owners will get points on the split (since last CBA the players found they kept getting more under the cap & it will happen again when teams find the loopholes) but likely on a sliding basis to prevent fire sales.
The players will get the Olympic concession & a few other demands.

With the $s rolling in & both sides knowing a strike/lockout undoes that progress they don't want to lose that gravy train. They'll strut & huff + puff but it's a paper tiger.

#14 DirtyDeeds

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 06:42 PM

CHICAGO -- The head of the NHL players' union says negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement will begin "very quickly" -- perhaps as early as this week.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399221

All I can say is about time and get it done.

#15 Flyerfan52

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 08:06 PM

CHICAGO -- The head of the NHL players' union says negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement will begin "very quickly" -- perhaps as early as this week.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399221

All I can say is about time and get it done.

The sooner the better.
Don't waste time with strutting & rhetoric. Get to the meat of it & actually work on solving the differences.
The fans want to know we'll have a season. Our Euro brethren have already lost their chance to see NHLers live.

Our sport can not afford to lose fans. You can't create new fans by ignoring the borderline 1s that are becoming more interested. If you have no product they might turn to something else & not return.

#16 AFCA

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 10:40 AM

I hope it gets done quickly.
I'm a Flames fan for almost 18 years now and I've never been to Calgary.
I finally have a chance to visit in october/november with the wife and kid.
I just can't take the risk of booking a flight and hotel now, not knowing for sure if there's any hockey at the end of october!(with all due respect, I'm not visiting Calgary for the zoo :) )
So I'm anxiously checking this topic pretty much everyday to see if there's any news... so please keep posting. Here in The Netherlands there is none NHL info what so ever. :wacko:

#17 DL44

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 11:52 AM

You know what i think the bone the NHL/NHLPA will throw us this time around to entice us back?

The first time around it was all the rule changes... pretty genius and awesome for the game.

This time around, i suspect it will be realignment.. Not all see it yet... but the 4 conference thing is going to make for a massively awesome passionate, hateful first 2 rounds of playoffs. For the West and the Central, it will be as soon as next season since the first 2 rounds of the Western playoff fell in line with what the new set up would of resulted in... so next yr we'll see a similar mix of the playoff teams.

#18 CastleMania

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 12:03 PM

If there is a lockout this year it will kill any momentum the league has picked up in the states. The 04-05 lockout completely destroyed the NHL in the US and they have had to work hard to rebuild the league. I think both sides will take not of this and make concessions.

#19 DL44

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 04:26 PM

If there is a lockout this year it will kill any momentum the league has picked up in the states. The 04-05 lockout completely destroyed the NHL in the US and they have had to work hard to rebuild the league. I think both sides will take not of this and make concessions.


I don't buy that... that type of statement is pretty much hyperbole. I seem to recall the game coming back to recored setting levels the first yr back. Sure the casual fan may of taken a hit.. but to state hockey was destroyed in the US is pure hyperbole.

They will be fine whenever they come back... i don't buy that the league is in any sort of danger... especially considering how strong they came back after the last lockout..

And another key factor... since the last NHL lockout, there has been a NFL season that was threatened last season with a couple missed preseason gms, and the NBA missed a portion of their season this last yr... The Point: the sports public has become accustomed the idea of CBA issues... fans are more likely to be ho hum about the idea this time around compared to the first time.... People like me will take a 'let me know when their back' type attitude over an angered/personal approach many took the first time around.

I'm on the attitude of... just get it right this time... hammer it out.. missed games? fine as long as whatever they end up with this time results in not having another one again... which i think they can achieve.

#20 CastleMania

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Posted 26 June 2012 - 06:46 PM

I don't buy that... that type of statement is pretty much hyperbole. I seem to recall the game coming back to recored setting levels the first yr back. Sure the casual fan may of taken a hit.. but to state hockey was destroyed in the US is pure hyperbole.

They will be fine whenever they come back... i don't buy that the league is in any sort of danger... especially considering how strong they came back after the last lockout..

And another key factor... since the last NHL lockout, there has been a NFL season that was threatened last season with a couple missed preseason gms, and the NBA missed a portion of their season this last yr... The Point: the sports public has become accustomed the idea of CBA issues... fans are more likely to be ho hum about the idea this time around compared to the first time.... People like me will take a 'let me know when their back' type attitude over an angered/personal approach many took the first time around.

I'm on the attitude of... just get it right this time... hammer it out.. missed games? fine as long as whatever they end up with this time results in not having another one again... which i think they can achieve.

My statements come from living in the states and talking to americans about the issue. I have had countless people tell me they stop watching the sport because of the lockout. Obviously the US NHL market has grown substantially since the lockout, but this is largely because of the marketing the NHL has done in the states. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, and thus does not hold significant weight, but it is my experience and I believe that it may prevent a lockout.

However, ultimately who knows?