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DL44

Cba Talk - Lockout Sept 15th, 2012 - Jan 6th, 2013

   34 members have voted

  1. 1. Your prediction: How long will Lockout 2012 last?

    • No lockout this yr
      8
    • Minimal time lost - just camp/preseason schedule effected
      9
    • Significant time - be back starting Nov/Dec
      6
    • They push right to the drop dead date this yr - Around Christmas/New Yrs
      7
    • The season will be Lost
      3
    • Season lost plus some of next as well...
      1
  2. 2. If the season is lost, who wins the 2013 Draft lottery?

    • There will be a season - draft based on standings as usual - so probably Edm.
      23
    • Has to be Edm even if the whole thing is a lottery
      1
    • Brian Burke
      0
    • Pittsburgh
      2
    • Phoenix
      0
    • Other
      8

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

979 posts in this topic

Lockout or no lockout... That is the question...

Well, probably more accurately the question may be - It's coming, so how long will it last this yr?

A Lockout:

The cons - Obviously fans are robbed of their favorite sport. Owners and players aren't making money this yr. Players entering their prime earning yrs miss out on a yr of their career's high water mark. Risk losing sponsorship dollars and the casual fan.

The pro - hopefully an improved economic model allowing for a top to bottom financial stability and competitive balance leading to greater earning power and revenue-generating ability down the road for both sides.

..........

So... anyone wanna predict some of the contentious issues?

- Player percentage appears to be the big one - sitting at around 57%

With that being the key point... every thing else becomes a pawn for both sides...

- The new 4-conference schedule

- Olympic participation

- Free agent age

- Waiver and player movement rules

- Salary implications of waived/retired players

- Contract length and structure.. i.e. the retirement contracts

- RFA compensation

- Draft rules

- Maximum Fines, supplemental disciple

- Player buyouts

- Guaranteed contracts

- NTC/NMC's, and player movement rules in general

- The Salary Cap floor

anything else?

I'm thinking the league will end up bending over with every peripheral issue to get the player % down... But we'll see how it works out.

We should quickly find out after the playoffs and after their first posturi.. err... bargaining session what each is looking at... i think those points listed above are probably the main pieces in the game.

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I think the main issues for the owners will be getting the 57% down to 50/50 or atleast 52%. As well as the min salary cap. That is killing alot of teams and forcing them to over inflate players salaries.

Sadly I could see this getting ugly because I know many of the players feel they bent over and took it up the rear last time and dont want to be losing anymore. It would be a crushing blow to the NHL if a lockout did happen as they seem to have some good momentum in ratings and fan approval.

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It is time to ask the question. Why aren't they talking? Is there no sense of urgency here?

Mr Bettman: are you going to leave this to the last minute? The players association has already started drawing lines(saying no to realignment) in the sand.

Time to either renew for another year or give notice you want to renegotiate.

Good time to bump this thread.

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It is time to ask the question. Why aren't they talking? Is there no sense of urgency here?

Mr Bettman: are you going to leave this to the last minute? The players association has already started drawing lines(saying no to realignment) in the sand.

Time to either renew for another year or give notice you want to renegotiate.

Good time to bump this thread.

Correct - No sense of urgency yet. Yes, they are leaving it to the last minute.

There is no option of renewing... the CBA is set to expire. The options to renew already happened a couple/few seasons ago.

But this last minute thing isn't/shouldn't be a surprise... It always happens that way. Meetings that occur without looming deadlines are just for posturing and basically probing the other side. It just sets the table for pressure meetings later on.

Bettman recently made a non-specific statement that Fehr and himself will soon be probing each other. But serious penetration will likely begin late August. Neither man wants to be the first to bend over, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. heh heh

Also I think both sides want to wait till after the initial free agent frenzy before meeting. Owners want to put their teams together, and players want to get contracts set going forward. Then both sides will know what the landscape next yr looks like, and they can then work around that.

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Correct - No sense of urgency yet. Yes, they are leaving it to the last minute.

There is no option of renewing... the CBA is set to expire. The options to renew already happened a couple/few seasons ago.

But this last minute thing isn't/shouldn't be a surprise... It always happens that way. Meetings that occur without looming deadlines are just for posturing and basically probing the other side. It just sets the table for pressure meetings later on.

Bettman recently made a non-specific statement that Fehr and himself will soon be probing each other. But serious penetration will likely begin late August. Neither man wants to be the first to bend over, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. heh heh

Also I think both sides want to wait till after the initial free agent frenzy before meeting. Owners want to put their teams together, and players want to get contracts set going forward. Then both sides will know what the landscape next yr looks like, and they can then work around that.

How can cap/floor teams reasonably offer contracts when they don't know how much their budget is going to be? Especially when a team might be considering in taking on a contract like Roberto Luongo's. I can see a bunch of teams with lots of cap room or knowing they have money to spend, but isn't this just limiting the teams that might be in a position to make a concrete offer?

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This is just more of the same old BS from both Bettman and the players union...

Both sides know fully well how the negotiations "should" work and what the potential ramifications of things going sideways are...

One side has to make the first move, and it by rights should be Bettman that initiates the beginning of negotiations simply because he is the one that accepted the job of supposedly running the show... Then again, the NHLPA is also capable of opening up the discussions... Someone has to make the first move...

It would be nice if either side grew a set and did this in the next week or so, that way the cards are on the table before the draft, so teams have a better idea of how far apart the opposing sides are and how the cap and other factors could play into things...

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No lockout. The NHL will get 50% revenue sharing and offer the NHLPA Olympic participation in return. The NHL has all the cards to play. Salaries have gotten out of control again and fans, especially in the USA, arent going to be behind the players if they get greedy.

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Both sides know they can't play hardball as losing even part of a season lessens interest in the markets they are trying to grow. The areas with the strong interest can be counted on to come back but not the fringe 1s. That could result in movement of franchises & possible retraction. Neither side wants that as it results in loss of NHL jobs (NHLPA side) & untapped TV markets/merchandise sales/fan interest (both sides due to the possible revenue).

Both leaders will posture but a middle ground will be reached. The players will get the green light to go to the 2014 Olympics & the % of revenue/cap might drop a bit (on a sliding scale to accommodate current contracts). If revenue continues to grow even a smaller % still results in a higher cap & more $s in the players pockets. It could even be conditional (like the picks in many trades) based on a growth in revenue of x resulting in a decrease of y.

The length & allowed front loading of clearly unachievable contracts will be discussed & probably adjusted slightly downwards as it helps both sides (opens more jobs for emerging players as the old 1s can retire to be replaced by the new & slows the GMs that sign the ridiculous 1s). Even the rumored 1 contract, 1 year amnesty floating around works for both as the players that get bought out get most of the $s & are still free to sign new contracts while the GMs have more money for new signings. The teams can actually spend more to solve a problem but @ the end the players stand to pocket more. Only those that bankroll the teams are actually losing money & mostly they own the teams that used to not care about the cost if it results in the SC.

Both Bettman & Fehr have big egos but hopefully the mandate from both sides clients prevent them from getting in a peeing contest. Then it could be resolved without losing even 1 game.

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The NHLPA reps & alternates are meeting in Chicago next Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday to name a negotiating team.

Since the draft will be over this hopefully gets the negotiations underway.

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The NHLPA reps & alternates are meeting in Chicago next Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday to name a negotiating team.

Since the draft will be over this hopefully gets the negotiations underway.

To add to that i think i heard the Board of Governors is meeting today in Vegas...

The 2 sides have been exchanging info the last couple of months. Neither side apparently wants to make a big deal about any sort of kickoff to negotiations.

The possibility of the NHL taking over the Devils subsequently owing two of their league's franchises doesn't look good for the perception of the league's economic strength. Owners' ploy for leverage? heh heh... let the games begin... and then let the hockey games begin.

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CBA talks are speculated to shortly start after the PA meets next week in Chicago.

So likely just after the initial UFAs signings as speculated earlier....

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I don't think we will lose any regular season games. We will probably see the percentage come down to 50-52. Salary cap floor will be lowered significantly. Bettman will threaten contraction for these points. I think the rookies will get thrown under the bus and the players union will trade away an increased Free Agent age. Look for the majority of the money points to go the Owners way and the Players getting the non-monetery concessions.

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I don't think we will lose any regular season games. We will probably see the percentage come down to 50-52. Salary cap floor will be lowered significantly. Bettman will threaten contraction for these points. I think the rookies will get thrown under the bus and the players union will trade away an increased Free Agent age. Look for the majority of the money points to go the Owners way and the Players getting the non-monetery concessions.

The guarantee they can go to the 2014 Olympics without penalty will be counted as a win by the Russian contingent. They include many top players in the league.

All others want to be on their national team in the Olympics & winning Gold as it's 2nd only to winning the SC.

That will be 1 of their main demands which Bettman anticipated. That's why the blather about suspensions for any play that went without the blessing of the league.

The owners will get points on the split (since last CBA the players found they kept getting more under the cap & it will happen again when teams find the loopholes) but likely on a sliding basis to prevent fire sales.

The players will get the Olympic concession & a few other demands.

With the $s rolling in & both sides knowing a strike/lockout undoes that progress they don't want to lose that gravy train. They'll strut & huff + puff but it's a paper tiger.

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CHICAGO -- The head of the NHL players' union says negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement will begin "very quickly" -- perhaps as early as this week.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399221

All I can say is about time and get it done.

The sooner the better.

Don't waste time with strutting & rhetoric. Get to the meat of it & actually work on solving the differences.

The fans want to know we'll have a season. Our Euro brethren have already lost their chance to see NHLers live.

Our sport can not afford to lose fans. You can't create new fans by ignoring the borderline 1s that are becoming more interested. If you have no product they might turn to something else & not return.

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I hope it gets done quickly.

I'm a Flames fan for almost 18 years now and I've never been to Calgary.

I finally have a chance to visit in october/november with the wife and kid.

I just can't take the risk of booking a flight and hotel now, not knowing for sure if there's any hockey at the end of october!(with all due respect, I'm not visiting Calgary for the zoo :) )

So I'm anxiously checking this topic pretty much everyday to see if there's any news... so please keep posting. Here in The Netherlands there is none NHL info what so ever. :wacko:

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You know what i think the bone the NHL/NHLPA will throw us this time around to entice us back?

The first time around it was all the rule changes... pretty genius and awesome for the game.

This time around, i suspect it will be realignment.. Not all see it yet... but the 4 conference thing is going to make for a massively awesome passionate, hateful first 2 rounds of playoffs. For the West and the Central, it will be as soon as next season since the first 2 rounds of the Western playoff fell in line with what the new set up would of resulted in... so next yr we'll see a similar mix of the playoff teams.

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If there is a lockout this year it will kill any momentum the league has picked up in the states. The 04-05 lockout completely destroyed the NHL in the US and they have had to work hard to rebuild the league. I think both sides will take not of this and make concessions.

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If there is a lockout this year it will kill any momentum the league has picked up in the states. The 04-05 lockout completely destroyed the NHL in the US and they have had to work hard to rebuild the league. I think both sides will take not of this and make concessions.

I don't buy that... that type of statement is pretty much hyperbole. I seem to recall the game coming back to recored setting levels the first yr back. Sure the casual fan may of taken a hit.. but to state hockey was destroyed in the US is pure hyperbole.

They will be fine whenever they come back... i don't buy that the league is in any sort of danger... especially considering how strong they came back after the last lockout..

And another key factor... since the last NHL lockout, there has been a NFL season that was threatened last season with a couple missed preseason gms, and the NBA missed a portion of their season this last yr... The Point: the sports public has become accustomed the idea of CBA issues... fans are more likely to be ho hum about the idea this time around compared to the first time.... People like me will take a 'let me know when their back' type attitude over an angered/personal approach many took the first time around.

I'm on the attitude of... just get it right this time... hammer it out.. missed games? fine as long as whatever they end up with this time results in not having another one again... which i think they can achieve.

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I don't buy that... that type of statement is pretty much hyperbole. I seem to recall the game coming back to recored setting levels the first yr back. Sure the casual fan may of taken a hit.. but to state hockey was destroyed in the US is pure hyperbole.

They will be fine whenever they come back... i don't buy that the league is in any sort of danger... especially considering how strong they came back after the last lockout..

And another key factor... since the last NHL lockout, there has been a NFL season that was threatened last season with a couple missed preseason gms, and the NBA missed a portion of their season this last yr... The Point: the sports public has become accustomed the idea of CBA issues... fans are more likely to be ho hum about the idea this time around compared to the first time.... People like me will take a 'let me know when their back' type attitude over an angered/personal approach many took the first time around.

I'm on the attitude of... just get it right this time... hammer it out.. missed games? fine as long as whatever they end up with this time results in not having another one again... which i think they can achieve.

My statements come from living in the states and talking to americans about the issue. I have had countless people tell me they stop watching the sport because of the lockout. Obviously the US NHL market has grown substantially since the lockout, but this is largely because of the marketing the NHL has done in the states. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, and thus does not hold significant weight, but it is my experience and I believe that it may prevent a lockout.

However, ultimately who knows?

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My statements come from living in the states and talking to americans about the issue. I have had countless people tell me they stop watching the sport because of the lockout. Obviously the US NHL market has grown substantially since the lockout, but this is largely because of the marketing the NHL has done in the states. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, and thus does not hold significant weight, but it is my experience and I believe that it may prevent a lockout.

However, ultimately who knows?

The numbers for one.

I was living in San Jose around the time of the first one... and the lockout was pretty much a non-topic for the americans from my experience. The only ones that were riled were the other canadians i was going to school with.

Everyone there (locals) were like, ah well... And this is a market that sells out and loves their sharks. Maybe i didn't get a chance to contact enough direct hardcore sharks fans.

In fact, the only ones that seemed threathen to never watch the sport again in my experience are those that are the most passionate about the sport... mostly just spouting off their own personal frustration about being denied their favorite sport... i.e. empty threats.

I'll liken it to the NBA lockout that just passed. I'm nothing but a casual fan of the league... just follow it off of TSN/Sportsnet highlights till the playoffs come around...

So they lockout... and my take as a casual fan was like.. meh.. we'll see what they come up with for a CBA..

As a casual fan, i found that i had way too little emotion invested in the sport to stir any sort of negative reaction to their lockout... (and i ended up glued to their Finals this yr too.. man i was cheering OKC HARD)

That whole idea of losing the casual fan i think is just false propaganda by those who wish to never see a lockout.. i.e. media ( i think is great to get the idea out there to deter lockouts by creating a little fear, but i don't think their accurate)...

It's the hardcore fans IMO that get the most vocal, frustrated and upset by work stoppages and on the flip side, its the hardcore fans that are the first to buy the tickets once it starts up again.

That's not to dismiss completely the idea the NHL probably loses a handful of its most bitter fans and season ticket holders... but i think the numbers really showed coming out the last lockout the overall risk to the product is just not there. And i think the owners know this... and i think the players know this. Just gives the owners more leverage.

And of course, this is based on my own personal experiences and observations.. which obviously differ from yours.

Just another reason i think a lockout is guaranteed.

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Just an update on timing:

CHICAGO -- Let the games begin.

The NHL and NHL Players' Association are scheduled to kick off formal talks on a new collective bargaining agreement in New York on Friday, according to multiple sources.

However players are actually doing their own meetings 3 days early(started yesterday) prior to Fridays meeting with the NHL.

In all, the union has gathered 53 players together for three days of comprehensive meetings before talks open. They were split into three breakout groups on Tuesday afternoon and combed over a number of topics expected to be raised during CBA discussions

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399319

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NHLPA names 31 player negotiating committee

As per Mirtle and The Globe and Mail;

Quote:

Craig Adams (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Adrian Aucoin (Phoenix Coyotes)

Alex Auld (Ottawa Senators)

David Backes (St. Louis Blues)

Marty Biron (New York Rangers)

Brad Boyes (Buffalo Sabres)

Chris Campoli (Montreal Canadiens)

B.J. Crombeen (St. Louis Blues)

Mathieu Darche (Montreal Canadiens)

Rick DiPietro (New York Islanders)

Shane Doan (Phoenix Coyotes)

Brandon Dubinsky (New York Rangers)

Ruslan Fedotenko (New York Rangers)

Alex Goligoski (Dallas Stars)

Ron Hainsey (Winnipeg Jets)

Scott Hartnell (Philadelphia Flyers)

Jamie Langenbrunner (St. Louis Blues)

Manny Malhotra (Vancouver Canucks)

Steve Montador (Chicago Blackhawks)

Dominic Moore (San Jose Sharks)

Brendan Morrison (Chicago Blackhawks)

Douglas Murray (San Jose Sharks)

George Parros (Anaheim Ducks)

Chris Phillips (Ottawa Senators)

Cory Schneider (Vancouver Canucks)

John Tavares (New York Islanders)

Shea Weber (Nashville Predators)

Kevin Westgarth (Los Angeles Kings)

Dan Winnik (San Jose Sharks)

James Wisniewski (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Henrik Zetterberg (Detroit Red Wings)

---------------------------------------

No Flames interested i see...

A little surprised to see Schneider on the list considering his 60 career games...

But he is college educated and probably has a passion for this...

There's a couple important attributes to have...

Hopefully all these guys are:

- knowledgeable on all issues

- passionate and driven

- logical

With those attributes, it should make for a solid negotiating team...

But with so many cooks... i would imagine it being very difficult for them to come to consensus on the delicate issues... maybe they'll go majority rules for anything in the air.

The discussions between meetings should be extremely effective tho with so many points of view.... time consuming but effective.

Also this should result in complete transparency of the process for all the players... something they lacked the first around when they revolted on Linden after the fact.

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Taken from TSN article:

The NHL season could start without a new labour agreement if both sides agree to continue talks beyond the Sept. 15 expiration of the current deal.

NHL players association executive director Don Fehr said Wednesday "the players haven't considered what they would do on Sept. 15 or any other date if no agreement is in place."

If players continue working without a new contract, they would do so under the old pact if both sides in the negotiations agree, Fehr said. The regular season is scheduled to start on Oct. 11.

Fehr, the former head of the baseball players' union, said there were a number of times during his 33 years there when a season went on without a collective bargaining agreement.

Sounds encouraging. Or its just posturing on the NHLPA side to get the fans in their corner.

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Taken from TSN article:

Sounds encouraging. Or its just posturing on the NHLPA side to get the fans in their corner.

100% posturing. it serves NO benefit for the owners negotiating power to get the deal they want if the games are being played.

It's a transparent basic attempt of PR for the PA.

I think it's a new era of sports fan now... after the last NHL lockout, a couple of NBA lockouts, and the NFL lockout... i think the knowledge gained for the average sports fan that has paid any sort of attention on the topic via media, social media, message boards like these, it's quite apparent statements like this are posturing.

Maybe i'm being cynical... but at the end of the day it depends on the nature of the talks on Sept 15th... if they've progressed and hammered out the big points, then it's very possible. I just doubt the chances of that being the case.

And the fact he's made such a statement before the sides have even met strongly suggest posturing at this point. It would be a different story it this was made on Sept 14th after many progressive meetings.

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