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Johnny 'Hockey' Gaudreau

  

16 members have voted

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  1. 1. How many points will Johnny Hockey score in his sophomore season?

    • 40-50
      1
    • 50-60
      0
    • 60-70
      2
    • 70-80
      7
    • 80-90
      4
    • 90-100
      1
    • 100+
      1


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You look at the players surrounding Gaudreau in the scoring race (excluding superstars with cup wins and players on extreme value contracts)

Blake wheeler 5.6

Joe pavelski 6

Taylor hall 6

Bergeron 6.875

Benn 5.25

Seguin 5.75

Karlsson 6.5

Sedin 7

Tarasenko 7.5

Avg = 6.275

Everyone is using the highest cap hit on the entire list as the only comparable. Now I understand he's young and the cap has inflated but to compete with these teams we need reasonable flexibility.

I can't see the cap hit going above Gio's 6.75. I think the only thing that remains to be seen is whether that buys free agency years of not.

Enjoy watching him elsewhere then. Fans will part with their cash to see a player like Gaudreau, it's just starting.

He is incredibly marketable and quite a hockey player to boot.

You think, say Boston wouldn't rip him right out of our hands like right now?

He's worth large cash, and he'll get it.

Stop staring at the cap and focus on the investment.

At 22 he's quickly establishing a lot of things, all positive.

He and Mony, 22 and 21, what a ying and yang to have, money them up, THAT, my friend, is our foundation.

Add Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, that's a killer balance.

Bennett and Jankowski coming up, another year for D prospects...

But could we get some wingers in the system, holy crap?

Don't care if they shoot right or left, both sides suck.

Draft wingers, not <6' "good at both ends" types, damn.

Hunter Smith? Yeah, over-rating size a bit much, 6'1" to 6'3" would be good, 4" faster with the stick. Smith's puck skills aren't making this league on it's worst day, but enough about that.

But yeah, we are loathsome at both wings, team and prospects.

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Ramo - must continue his current play to earn a new contract with a minor raise.

If he continues with his current play, a .925 sv% 2.1ish GAA goalie that plays every game would be pretty popular with the 4mil per crowd.

He's playing for cash now, I would think, at this stage of his career if he keeps it up.

Let's do an age comparable. Halak or Ramo? Halak is $4.5per.

If Ramo levels at the #s he's running with consistency, that's a good deal at 5per.

Maybe even modest methinks.

Can't string a guy along forever, as much as it would help us.

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So, of those players listed, who had a 64 point rookie year, followed up by a p/gp sophomore year pace? When you find one, look at the salary they are making. I may have missed one, but didn't see any. Who signed recently? Tarasenko. Using Gio's salary as the top cap hit expected is not a reasonable argument. Maybe the Flames can do that, but don't hold your breath.

Taylor Hall basically did that on a PPG level, or Jeff Skinner came close. Mark Stone is almost doing that.

I'm not taking anything away from Jonny, I just seem to remember Gio was going to be 8m on these boards and Hamilton 7m. I think Jonny will come in similar to Gio. He's not eligible for offersheets and I think he's willing to play ball and work it to be fair to the cap and himself.

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I was thinking along the same lines, getting paid more than the captain only on your 3rd year with the organization is a bit of a slap in the face to Gio. Personally don't think Gio really cares and probably thinks JH is worth a every penny..still has half the season to prove his worth so it's wait and see if he's getting $6.75M+_

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The only thing I might consider is, they haven't won anything yet. I guess that's why they're going to be 6.5-7.5m players as opposed to 9-10?

It's hard to build a team if players are costing too much. I was hoping for Kreci type numbers, but that's low balling now. I just think that could be the bridge deal that gets them to more once they're consistent contenders. This is where I wish bonuses would come into play. Start off at 6 and then if they get passed a certain playoff round the bonus bumps them up. I understand that's not how the NHL salary structures work though.

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Even if we use Patrick Kane as an example which is Gaudreau's absolute ceiling. Patrick Kane score 88 points along with the stanley cup winning goal in 2009-2010. His new contract had a cap hit of 6.3

Putting Gaudreau 1m or more above those lofty numbers is crazy. I stick by my original projection of 6.75m

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After watching Tarasenko drop the gloves with that loser Kesler sticking up for his team mate. I just can't see how JH will get the same money as Tarasenko. The size factor is going to cost him a little money. I see JH coming in at 6 year 6.5 . Would like to see him sign longer but I thinks that fair both ways .

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Even if we use Patrick Kane as an example which is Gaudreau's absolute ceiling. Patrick Kane score 88 points along with the stanley cup winning goal in 2009-2010. His new contract had a cap hit of 6.3

Putting Gaudreau 1m or more above those lofty numbers is crazy. I stick by my original projection of 6.75m

That contract was in Dec. 2009, not after the season. They signed him, Toews and Keith to extensions at the same time.

That's now over 7 yrs ago and got 3 fewer UFA years than we're talking now, Kane is at 10.5 now, 7 yrs later.

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You guys are all assuming that JH is not going to accept a discount for the sake of the team. I could see BT saying to him same deal or a little less then GIO, which is a cap hit of 6.75, would 7 or 8 years at 6.5 for him really be an insult, I dont think so. If the team says to him look take a little less so we can have more flexibility for other players I dont think JH says no to that.

 

For the Kane comparable he also won a couple cups and a bunch of individual awards before getting 10.5 million, and look at chicago now. Im not saying I want JH to go, but I think he will take less then you all think to sign.

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I don't think we can compare him to Kane or Toews. Gaudreau hasn't done anything yet. We are seeing him get shut down as the season gets harder. I am not down on the kid, but it's just a fact. If he can show he can play through it and still get points then that's when we can say he deserves more.

He hasn't won cups. They won one playoff series. This year and for years to come he will get more attention, especially after the midway point of seasons where points in the standings get harder to come by....

Last year, he was new, sort of an unknown, sort of thought of, can he sustain his play? He is known now. Much like iginla, if you stop Gaudreau, you stop the Flames. But iginla was able to play through it most nights. Can Gaudreau? I am just saying this because it's when we will know his true worth. I suspect a 6.75-7.25/year deal. Higher goes to Stanley Cup Winners...

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You guys are all assuming that JH is not going to accept a discount for the sake of the team. I could see BT saying to him same deal or a little less then GIO, which is a cap hit of 6.75, would 7 or 8 years at 6.5 for him really be an insult, I dont think so. If the team says to him look take a little less so we can have more flexibility for other players I dont think JH says no to that.

For the Kane comparable he also won a couple cups and a bunch of individual awards before getting 10.5 million, and look at chicago now. Im not saying I want JH to go, but I think he will take less then you all think to sign.

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I'm looking at the same way, I think BT can still sell the rebuild to both Monny and JH. Not saying they both take huge discounts but I think we can get them signed at a bargain. Like everyone is saying this team hasn't achieved much yet other than a 2nd rd playoff exit. I don't see JH or Monny looking to handcuff the team with huge contacts . Plus you still have Brian Burke around to help push what BT is selling

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I'm looking at the same way, I think BT can still sell the rebuild to both Monny and JH. Not saying they both take huge discounts but I think we can get them signed at a bargain. Like everyone is saying this team hasn't achieved much yet other than a 2nd rd playoff exit. I don't see JH or Monny looking to handcuff the team with huge contacts . Plus you still have Brian Burke around to help push what BT is selling

Thats the way I look at it. Im assuming he will sell to them we are still building a contender, and them taking big contracts just doesnt help them build a contender. Im still think matching 8 year deals at 6.5 mill cap hit is sufficent to sign the two of them maybe even a little less, BT has shown that he can be a shrewd negotiator.

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You look at the players surrounding Gaudreau in the scoring race (excluding superstars with cup wins and players on extreme value contracts)

Blake wheeler 5.6

Joe pavelski 6

Taylor hall 6

Bergeron 6.875

Benn 5.25

Seguin 5.75

Karlsson 6.5

Sedin 7

Tarasenko 7.5

Avg = 6.275

Everyone is using the highest cap hit on the entire list as the only comparable. Now I understand he's young and the cap has inflated but to compete with these teams we need reasonable flexibility.

I can't see the cap hit going above Gio's 6.75. I think the only thing that remains to be seen is whether that buys free agency years of not.

 

I don't think anyone is using the highest cap hit as a comparable but simply, using the most recent contract as a comparable (Tarasenko). Since it's the most recent, it's the most relative.

 

Only thing we may be able to convince Gaudreau of is the CAD to USD exchange rate.  Sell him on the idea that paying him $6.5-mil USD is basically paying him $9.2-mil CAD.  Since he lives in Calgary now, then he will need to spend most of his money in CAD... 

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I don't think anyone is using the highest cap hit as a comparable but simply, using the most recent contract as a comparable (Tarasenko). Since it's the most recent, it's the most relative.

 

Only thing we may be able to convince Gaudreau of is the CAD to USD exchange rate.  Sell him on the idea that paying him $6.5-mil USD is basically paying him $9.2-mil CAD.  Since he lives in Calgary now, then he will need to spend most of his money in CAD... 

 

I can't tell if you are being funny or serious.  Good job if it was a joke.

 

So, you want him to take a crappy dollar discount?  

 

Unfortunately, BT will pay Johnny whatever his agent asks for, not likely less than $7m.  It's funny but he doesn't seem to have any endorsement deals.  At least Gio has dumb ATB commercials.

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I can't tell if you are being funny or serious.  Good job if it was a joke.

 

So, you want him to take a crappy dollar discount?  

 

Unfortunately, BT will pay Johnny whatever his agent asks for, not likely less than $7m.  It's funny but he doesn't seem to have any endorsement deals.  At least Gio has dumb ATB commercials.

I dont get why you are suggesting that JH wont take a discount when gio did. Youre assuming that he will get exactly what he asks for and thats that.

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I dont get why you are suggesting that JH wont take a discount when gio did. Youre assuming that he will get exactly what he asks for and thats that.

Gio will be 33 at the start of his deal.  He got a 6 year deal, taking him to age 38.  

 

What I was getting at was that BT won't be low-balling Johnny's agent. They will negotiate, but it's more likely to be term and yearly $$ that gets worked out.  BT wants as many years as he can get, while the agent would consider that if the $$ come up.  

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Trade deadline and Free agency moves along with JH play the rest of the season can change how they approach his contract. They definitely won't low ball his agent, BT and Burke even Craig Conroy likely know the majority of agents, those relationships dictate how much hardball the agent plays and I think these guys have a great reputation and rapport around the league. I think we may be surprised with the term and $ they end up locking up JH and Monny to

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I can't tell if you are being funny or serious.  Good job if it was a joke.

 

So, you want him to take a crappy dollar discount?  

 

Unfortunately, BT will pay Johnny whatever his agent asks for, not likely less than $7m.  It's funny but he doesn't seem to have any endorsement deals.  At least Gio has dumb ATB commercials.

 

If you read a few posts up, then you will see that I'm okay with Johnny signing for up to $7.5-mil.

 

I'm just presenting a potential way BT can approach JH to lower the final number.  We have seen professional athletes choose certain locations because the state/province has lower taxes.  Canada now offers more purchasing power per US Dollar.  Alberta has low taxes compared to other provinces.  If JH makes his home in Calgary and gets paid in USD, then JH may be okay making a lower USD number since it's quite a bit more in Canadian terms.

 

Or, JH can completely ignore that.  But just sayin

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You look at the players surrounding Gaudreau in the scoring race (excluding superstars with cup wins and players on extreme value contracts)

Blake wheeler 5.6 signed 13/14 Cap: 64.3 million. 8.7%

Joe pavelski 6 Signed 14/15. Cap: 69Million. 8.7%

Taylor hall 6 Signed 13/14. Cap: 64.3 Million 9.3%

Bergeron 6.875 Signed 14/15. Cap: 69 million. 9.9% (this is also a deal that back dives so not a great comparison)

Benn 5.25 signed 12/13. Cap: Lockout year so for argument sake i'll take the next year: 64Mill. 8.2%

Seguin 5.75 Signed 13/14. Cap: 64.3 Million. 8.9%

Karlsson 6.5 (dman. not a valid comparison)

Sedin 7 signed 14/15. Cap: 69Million. 10%

Tarasenko 7.5 signed 15/16 Cap: 71.4 Million. 10.5%

Avg = 6.275

Everyone is using the highest cap hit on the entire list as the only comparable. Now I understand he's young and the cap has inflated but to compete with these teams we need reasonable flexibility.

I can't see the cap hit going above Gio's 6.75. I think the only thing that remains to be seen is whether that buys free agency years of not.

 

Not everyone is using that no. the problem with the salary cap now is you are not comparing apples to apples when you simply look at cap hit you have to factor what % of the salary cap they were at the time to account for inflation. The avg number there is 9.25 % which would be a cap hit of basically 6.8M so 6.8 becomes your starting point as an average. but problem is the most recent comp of Tarasenko is probably going to push that higher. Thats why most people think you are looking closer to 7 mill plus, that number includes taking all of these comparables into account.

 

I think in order to get the cap hit down to 6.75Mill you'd have to go 5 years and I think that makes zero sense. for what an etra 500K a year you could maybe buy an extra 2-3 years i think you do that 10 times out of 10. i also really disagree with this notion that they can exceed Gio's contract becuaes you are not comparing apples to apples. the only reason Gio's contract isn't over 7 million is the term includes a few yeras that are likely going to be at the end of this career, where Johnny's next contract is going to take him through a good chunk of his prime years. totally different ball game

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After Bennett's performance against the Cats, Johnny has some company for "most dynamic player" on the Flames.  As happy as Johnny is for Sam's game, he will no doubt want to turn it up a notch.  Being the NHL 1st Star for December, I am sure Johnny wants to follow it up with a repeat in January.  He has to look over his shoulder, since Sam had 5 goals in 2 games this month.  

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After Bennett's performance against the Cats, Johnny has some company for "most dynamic player" on the Flames.  As happy as Johnny is for Sam's game, he will no doubt want to turn it up a notch.  Being the NHL 1st Star for December, I am sure Johnny wants to follow it up with a repeat in January.  He has to look over his shoulder, since Sam had 5 goals in 2 games this month.  

 

 

IMO, 3 years from not its very likely that the Flames best player is Sam Bennett and not Gaudreau. Thats not disrespecting Johnny at all its just I think Bennett has that much upside and having them on the same team to push each other should be real fun to watch. 

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IMO, 3 years from not its very likely that the Flames best player is Sam Bennett and not Gaudreau. Thats not disrespecting Johnny at all its just I think Bennett has that much upside and having them on the same team to push each other should be real fun to watch. 

 

I agree that they will push each other.  Both want to be difference makes.  Both have the drive to get there.  It's very hard to tell whether Sam will surpass Johnny.  Sam has size and elite tools going for him, while Johnny has sublime skills.  Put them on the same line in 3 years time and you have likely a Toews/Kane pairing.  Right now, Johnny is just a small forward on a meh team scoring at a top 5 NHL level.  If he (ever) adds weight to his toolbox, he could be a perennial 40 goal player (he's halfway there now).

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Johnny doesn't need to add weight. At least not that much. Maybe a little more would help, but as long as it doesn't hider his speed. He is shifty and hard to hit. He has a little bit if push back once In Awhile, but that's not his game, nor is size or bulking up.

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Johnny doesn't need to add weight. At least not that much. Maybe a little more would help, but as long as it doesn't hider his speed. He is shifty and hard to hit. He has a little bit if push back once In Awhile, but that's not his game, nor is size or bulking up.

He is not likely to ever be that big, but he will add weight.  He could top out at around Patty Kane or St.Louis weight, mostly added to his legs and core.

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