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18 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Undrafted, as in a FA this year?  Or available to the 2018 draft?

If he goes into the draft, we would have to use our first pick in the 3rd or 4th.  Think he would still be there?

 

Wondering how much you watch this guy.  Great in the WJC.  2 games in USHL.

The reason I ask is one name that comes to mind...Justin Pogge.

Not being insulting, just don't know if he's worth spending a pick or contract on.

 

I'm not great with contracts, but I believe Flyerfan52 had the correct answer:  His situation would be best suited to a PTO.  I don't believe he'll be draft elligible.

 

Ah...so that age-old question...can we afford to take the risk of spending nothing?     (literally nothing, in the case of a PTO, with the potential for a minor league roster spot)

 

So when you go for a player like this, you might have a 10-15% chance of getting NHL quality out of it.   With Justin Pogge falling in that other 85%.

 

But, you cost is (next to) nothing.   And the ceiling is almost unlimited.  

 

so if you take a very low cost chance, you have 10-15% odds of success.  While if you don't, you have 0% chance (and will pay dearly through picks, players, and salary to cover the goalie position).

 

The idea is, if the net is a weakness, taking this 10-15% chance once or twice a year will add up to some pretty reasonable odds (over 50%, at little or no cost) over a 4-5 year period.   It means you have to let some failures go, and make tough decisions.   But the reward can be a difference maker.

 

Look at this list.  You will see a lot of Justin Pogges.   But you will also see many who were just Never given a chance, and you will also see a lot of NHL difference makers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IIHF_World_Under_20_Championship_Directorate_award_winners

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

I'm not great with contracts, but I believe Flyerfan52 had the correct answer:  His situation would be best suited to a PTO.  I don't believe he'll be draft elligible.

 

Ah...so that age-old question...can we afford to take the risk of spending nothing?     (literally nothing, in the case of a PTO, with the potential for a minor league roster spot)

 

My risk/reward was more centered around the use of a draft pick.  Rittich is proof that you can find gems elsewhere in the world and all it costs is a pick.  I would give up MacDonald's contract for a goalie with a reasonable chance of becomming a decent goalie.

 

Since we are not the only team looking overseas, I would assume it would have to be an ELC to get him here.  A PTO likely wouldn't do it.  As I said earlier, I would like to hear a bit about his scouting reports first, though.  Just looking at the WJC by itself isn't quite enough. 

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I am pretty sure Durny is draft eligible. His stats outside of the WJC are not good. I don't see the point, especially when we are already running out of nets for the goalies we already have.

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1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

My risk/reward was more centered around the use of a draft pick.  Rittich is proof that you can find gems elsewhere in the world and all it costs is a pick.  I would give up MacDonald's contract for a goalie with a reasonable chance of becomming a decent goalie.

 

Since we are not the only team looking overseas, I would assume it would have to be an ELC to get him here.  A PTO likely wouldn't do it.  As I said earlier, I would like to hear a bit about his scouting reports first, though.  Just looking at the WJC by itself isn't quite enough. 

 

So ....I stand corrected, yes, he is NHL draft elligible.    That doesn't mean he'll get drafted, though.    He would be an over-ager, so the PTO could still apply.   If somobody offers him an ELC out of the blue, great, but I have doubts about this.  For all the same reasons you have concerns with the Flames doing it.

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1 hour ago, JTech780 said:

I am pretty sure Durny is draft eligible. His stats outside of the WJC are not good. I don't see the point, especially when we are already running out of nets for the goalies we already have.

 

You're right....I looked into it, he is elligible.

 

With regards to his stats,....his stats are at least good if not great.   He is playing in a men's league against ex NHLers, except his particular team has all 18 year old defencemen.     The caliber he faces is somewhat between the AHL and NHL.   And his team is the "under 20" team which gets pounded by the rest of the league.

 

Put it this way: Tyler Parsons, our one shining hope, is almost a year older and, in the ECHL, which is easily One or Two calibers below.   And his team has decent defence.   And their save percentages are basically the same.

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4 hours ago, jjgallow said:

Put it this way: Tyler Parsons, our one shining hope, is almost a year older and, in the ECHL, which is easily One or Two calibers below.   And his team has decent defence.   And their save percentages are basically the same.

 

Parson is in the AHL.

 

I would say he isn;t our only hope.  Gillies is becoming more consistent.  Rittich is turning heads.   

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3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Parson is in the AHL.

 

I would say he isn;t our only hope.  Gillies is becoming more consistent.  Rittich is turning heads.   

 

It was an exaggeration

 

Perhaps a tad early to call Parsons an AHLer, based on that ...one...game....maybe we can revisit this in a couple weeks

 

Gillies needs to show another gear soon but of course, there is some hope there, yes.  Just as not as much as we had originally "hoped" for

 

Fair enough on Riitich.   But even if he turns out to be the next Kipper we will still need prospects coming up.  In basically all scenarios we will need this.

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19 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

It was an exaggeration

 

Perhaps a tad early to call Parsons an AHLer, based on that ...one...game....maybe we can revisit this in a couple weeks

 

Gillies needs to show another gear soon but of course, there is some hope there, yes.  Just as not as much as we had originally "hoped" for

 

Fair enough on Riitich.   But even if he turns out to be the next Kipper we will still need prospects coming up.  In basically all scenarios we will need this.

I quote from Fan960 today:

 

Gilles is top 10 in every AHL goalie catagory.  Gilles has most recently 2 back to back shutouts.  He also leads the AHl in shutouts...

 

What more do you guys need to know??? I think you can sleep well in knowing Gilles is doing fine lately(this season).

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37 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I quote from Fan960 today:

 

Gilles is top 10 in every AHL goalie catagory.  Gilles has most recently 2 back to back shutouts.  He also leads the AHl in shutouts...

 

What more do you guys need to know??? I think you can sleep well in knowing Gilles is doing fine lately(this season).

Most likely scenario in my mind is, Smith plays out his contract then retires. Then in 19/20 we run with a Rittich/Gillies tandem

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47 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I quote from Fan960 today:

 

Gilles is top 10 in every AHL goalie catagory.  Gilles has most recently 2 back to back shutouts.  He also leads the AHl in shutouts...

 

What more do you guys need to know??? I think you can sleep well in knowing Gilles is doing fine lately(this season).

 

Maybe I just had higher expectations for him.    I would like to see top 5 by the end of this year.   There was a time when he was extemely, extremely, highly rated.   I would like to see him reclaim that.

 

He is close but not there.     I think he has the ability to be the best goalie in the AHL.  I would settle for top 5.   

 

I'm certainly nowhere close to counting him out, I just think he can do more and needs to do more.

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21 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

It was an exaggeration

 

Perhaps a tad early to call Parsons an AHLer, based on that ...one...game....maybe we can revisit this in a couple weeks

 

Gillies needs to show another gear soon but of course, there is some hope there, yes.  Just as not as much as we had originally "hoped" for

 

Fair enough on Riitich.   But even if he turns out to be the next Kipper we will still need prospects coming up.  In basically all scenarios we will need this.

 

We will give Parsons a couple of weeks before calling him an AHLer (instead of one game)? How generous of us ;)

 

The Flames are getting top end goal tending in the NHL right now from both goalies, one of which is 25. Gilles has turned a corner and Parsons is still a top prospect. 

 

Bottom line with goalies is: 1) You measure their progress over years not weeks, and 2) Chances are your best starter is coming from somewhere you didn't expect. Sure there are exceptions to the rules, but they ARE exceptions. 

 

Given Smiths age we definitely need to find a long term option. I also agree adding a prospect or two won't hurt. But I like the goalies from top to bottom and I definitely think it is WAY to early to be coming to conclusions on Rittich, Parsons, or Gilles. 

 

 

 

 

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