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1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

He is a 30 year old NHL backup at very best on a league minimum two way contract as he drifts from team to team and his skills diminish.

 

We completely clogged up our development pipeline for two years for him, preventing Gillies, Parsons, from having a chance and for that matter preventing us from acquiring a legitimate prospect and developing them which is what we should have done.  It cost us two prospects that had value at the time, whatever you think of them now, and prevented us from getting the right prospect.

 

We appear to be doing the same with Wolf.   Forcing him to win the job from guys who have 2-4 years on him.   This isn't good asset management, sorry.  This isn't hedging our bet.   It is impatience.

 

And yes.  It's the most important position in the game, we need legitimate prospects.    Sometimes you get what you pay for.  There's a reason all these goalies we're acquiring are both free and too old to actually be prospects.

 

If the position was Center and we were loading the AHL up with older drifters, taking minutes away from Zary/Pelletier, people would be furious.

 

We think that's ok in net, we think that's ok on defence.   That's why we're in for a really rough ride.

 

I don't disagree with you on what Rittich is now, but he had some decent NHL season. He didn't clutter up the development system though. He played 43 games over two seasons in the AHL and played behind Gilles who played 78 AHL games over the same period. 

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44 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

What's Gillies doing now? How about Joni Ortio?lol

 

Ortio is one of the top goalies in the KHL and probably would be in the NHL with a different development experience.

 

Gillies was signed to the Blues, who as you know have a history of an actual development system for goalies.  He had immediately better success in his first 5 games with this organization, the rest we will see.

 

Ortio, at the age of 30, is probably past NHL redemption now although he has somewhat redeemed himself at least at the KHL level.
        Gillies could still have a good season this year and turn into a Bennett situation.  Unlikely but he's got a better shot now than he ever had with us  .

 

Hey..

 

Remember this?

 

 

You also nailed it in 2013:

 

You were exactly right about Ramo, about Berra, about MacDonald, about how the position is important, 

 

"weak" was how you described it then, and that was 2013, and you were right.

 

2021 we are doing the exact same thing.

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30 year old Ortio who never played well in the AHL or NHL (maxed out at 37 games) is the missed opportunity because he is in the KHL, but 29 year old Rittich with 134 games in the NHL (and counting) was wasted development? And your big move is to drag up a post from 2013 because someone was impressed with a showing? 

 

I hear you re the frustration of the Flames development record in net. But the reality is Gilles and Ortio had opportunities and didn't make it. They weren't the next Vasilevski except for ruined development caused by Rittich who had two 20 game seasons in the AHL. Ortio was never very good and Gilles had his development derailed by poorly timed injuries. 

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1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

Ortio is one of the top goalies in the KHL and probably would be in the NHL with a different development experience.

 

 

Low standards for KHL?

 

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10 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Low standards for KHL?

 

 

He still has the lowest save percentage for our AHL affiliate in the last 10 years, I think actually since Kipper.   All of these years and still unbeaten.

 

Higher than Riittich, Gillies, Ramo, etc.

 

I think by now I've got every reason to blame the deveopment system.   

 

But, if he wasn't good enough the solution wasn't to scrape the bottom of the barrell and find over-age bargain prospects.  Clearly.

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12 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

He still has the lowest save percentage for our AHL affiliate in the last 10 years, I think actually since Kipper.   All of these years and still unbeaten.

 

Higher than Riittich, Gillies, Ramo, etc.

 

I think by now I've got every reason to blame the deveopment system.   

 

But, if he wasn't good enough the solution wasn't to scrape the bottom of the barrell and find over-age bargain prospects.  Clearly.

 

You said KHL.

Now you are saying AHL?

Ortio had 926 and Rittich 925 and a couple had 946 and 950.

But there must be a certain number of games where you base that statement on.

Okay.  Ortio is the absolute best Sigalet ever coached. 

(sarcasm off)

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5 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

You said KHL.

Now you are saying AHL?

Ortio had 926 and Rittich 925 and a couple had 946 and 950.

But there must be a certain number of games where you base that statement on.

Okay.  Ortio is the absolute best Sigalet ever coached. 

(sarcasm off)

 

Ortio was also ~3-4 years younger than Rittich when he did it, and yes minimum games is pretty standard as you know, because if we're counting 2 game streaks well Ortio would win that too.

 

Sigalet is the elephant in the room.

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3 hours ago, kehatch said:

30 year old Ortio who never played well in the AHL or NHL (maxed out at 37 games) is the missed opportunity because he is in the KHL, but 29 year old Rittich with 134 games in the NHL (and counting) was wasted development? And your big move is to drag up a post from 2013 because someone was impressed with a showing? 

 

I hear you re the frustration of the Flames development record in net. But the reality is Gilles and Ortio had opportunities and didn't make it. They weren't the next Vasilevski except for ruined development caused by Rittich who had two 20 game seasons in the AHL. Ortio was never very good and Gilles had his development derailed by poorly timed injuries. 

 

that is not what I said.   People use Ortio against me because I supported him when most fans abandoned him.   And because it's one of the very few predictions of the Many predictions I've made on here that didn't pan out like I'd expected.    

 

Let's be honest, anyone on this thread who has ever supported any goalie in our development system since Kipper, has been proved "wrong".

 

In hindsight, you're just comparing one failure with another.   Both Ortio and Riitch were failed developments.   They both took up top development minutes and resources and we got very little back.  The difference is that Ortio had the potential for more, and Riitich came to us with his potential almost maxed out.

 

If even a single one of our prospects panned out and became a starter, then I would say I was probably wrong about Ortio.   That's not the case.   It doesn't mean I was right either.   IMHO it means I was wrong about our development system  (back then, I had only positive things to say about our development).  Ortio came to us with very strong skills, almost fully developed, and proceeded to regress almost immediately upon entering our system.  Fine.  Ok.

Then every other prospect did the exact same thing too, except for Riittich who was already  a professional veteran on arrival.

 

The general mood on here when you read this thread now is that we are all okay with the idea of none of our goalie prospects being anything more than support players as their career.    People are literally afraid to anticipate more than that now.    Me included.   But I'm not okay with it.

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So looking at goaltending, what I see as the depth based on Elite prospects would be 


NHL

Markstrom 

Vladar

 

AHL

Werner

Parsons

Wolf (could play overage in Junior)

Chechelev

 

USHL

Sergeyev

 

ECHL

Shortridge

Greenfield

 

Due to the crease congestion, I could see Wolf playing as overages in Junior, especially with last season being so short.

 

That still leaves 3 goalies fighting for 2 spots on the Heat or being loaned out. I would think we may see Parsons get loaned out from the start, or maybe after a few games to see if he can step up.

 

 I just have no real idea what they will do with the extra goalies.

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43 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

that is not what I said.   People use Ortio against me because I supported him when most fans abandoned him.   And because it's one of the very few predictions of the Many predictions I've made on here that didn't pan out like I'd expected.    

 

Let's be honest, anyone on this thread who has ever supported any goalie in our development system since Kipper, has been proved "wrong".

 

In hindsight, you're just comparing one failure with another.   Both Ortio and Riitch were failed developments.   They both took up top development minutes and resources and we got very little back.  The difference is that Ortio had the potential for more, and Riitich came to us with is potential almost maxed out.

 

If even a single one of our prospects panned out and became a starter, then I would say I was probably wrong about Ortio.   That's not the case.   It doesn't mean I was right either.   IMHO it means I was wrong about our development system  (back then, I had only positive things to say about our development).  Ortio came to us with very strong skills, almost fully developed, and proceeded to regress almost immediately upon entering our system.  Fine.  Ok.

Then every other prospect did the exact same thing too, except for Riittich who as already  a professional veteran on arrival.

 

The general mood on here when you read this thread now is that we are all okay with the idea of none of our goalie prospects being anything more than support players as their career.    People are literally afraid to anticipate more than that now.    Me included.   But I'm not okay with it.

 

Before drafting Vasilevskiy in the first round, the Lightning drafted 16 goalies the previous 12 years.  Of them one played more then 100 NHL games, and that was Kari Ramo. Vasilevskiy himself went on to play two seasons in the KHL, the first as a back-up and in the second he shared starts.  His following two seasons he bounced between the AHL and NHL, and finally got the net following a Ben Bishop injury in the 2016-17 season.  

 

I appreciate the Flames haven't been stellar at drafting and developing goalies.  But the suggestion that Rittich playing 43 games over two seasons in the AHL 'clogged up' the system or impacted Ortio's development is insane.  They didn't even play in the AHL at the same time.  The suggestion that Ortio screams a missed opportunity is also a little bonkers.  He had one strong year in the AHL in his D+5 season.  He was rewarded with 9 NHL starts.  The Flames gave him 6 then 22 NHL starts the following two seasons.  The net was his to take and he fell short.  Finally, the doom and gloom around the Flames is silly.  There are MANY NHL teams (see Tampa) that struggle in this area.  The odds just aren't good due to the delay in goalie development and the importance of the position.  Their failure to date doesn't exclude success tomorrow (again, see Tampa). 

 

The Flames have a number of good options in the pipeline right now.  That is good news. 

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3 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

Before drafting Vasilevskiy in the first round, the Lightning drafted 16 goalies the previous 12 years.  Of them one played more then 100 NHL games, and that was Kari Ramo. Vasilevskiy himself went on to play two seasons in the KHL, the first as a back-up and in the second he shared starts.  His following two seasons he bounced between the AHL and NHL, and finally got the net following a Ben Bishop injury in the 2016-17 season.  

 

I appreciate the Flames haven't been stellar at drafting and developing goalies.  But the suggestion that Rittich playing 43 games over two seasons in the NHL 'clogged up' the system or impacted Ortio's development is insane.  They didn't even play in the AHL at the same time.  The suggestion that Ortio screams a missed opportunity is also a little bonkers.  He had one strong year in the AHL in his D+5 season.  He was rewarded with 9 NHL starts.  The Flames gave him 6 then 22 NHL starts the following two seasons.  The net was his to take and he fell short.  Finally, the doom and gloom around the Flames is silly.  There are MANY NHL teams (see Tampa) that struggle in this area.  The odds just aren't good due to the delay in goalie development and the importance of the position.  Their failure to date doesn't exclude success tomorrow (again, see Tampa). 

 

The Flames have a number of good options in the pipeline right now.  That is good news. 

 

You're getting confused with what I was saying and mixing it up with what other people are saying. 

 

I did not bring up Ortio.  You are bringing him up, @conundrumed brought him up.   It's okay, it's human nature to change the topic when faced with facts against one's arguement.   And yeah, Ortio is a sore spot for me but you can't just tie him into an unrelated arguement and then ask me why I tied him into that arguement lol.

 

Let me know when you are done going off about Ortio who was by the way an excellent prospect at one time, and all here agreed.

 

Then we can discuss any number of goalies in our development system who went nowhere, including Riitich, and we can argue about how great they really were.  I guess.

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I was very upset when we gave up on LAURENT BROSSOIT I thought he was going to be the top goalie for this team he is still a work in progress I thought the same for Rittich then Parsons Now Wolf perhaps I should stop hoping these kids were the ones since every one to this point are still a work on progress or moved on to another country.

 

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In the history of the Flames, including Atlanta, they have only drafted 5 goalies who have played more than 100 games in the NHL, only 3 of whom did it for the Flames, the last one being Kidd in the 90s.
 

They drafted Anderson, but he didn’t sign and re-entered the draft. 

 

Krahn had potential to be an all star but was derailed by injuries, bad luck.


Broissoit could still hit 100 GP, but not with Calgary. Wolf is the next option as it appears Parsons fell to the same injury curse as Krahn.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

You're getting confused with what I was saying and mixing it up with what other people are saying. 

 

I did not bring up Ortio.  You are bringing him up, @conundrumed brought him up.   It's okay, it's human nature to change the topic when faced with facts against one's arguement.   And yeah, Ortio is a sore spot for me but you can't just tie him into an unrelated arguement and then ask me why I tied him into that arguement lol.

 

Let me know when you are done going off about Ortio who was by the way an excellent prospect at one time, and all here agreed.

 

Then we can discuss any number of goalies in our development system who went nowhere, including Riitich, and we can argue about how great they really were.  I guess.

 

The Flames haven't been successful drafting and developing goalies. No question, I am not disputing that. 

 

My point is that every team has their David Rittich's and other veteran goalies. And every team has their long list of Ortios and Brossoits and Gilles that didn't make it. Every team also has a dreadful hit percentage on drafted goalies. 

 

You mentioned the Blues as a team strong at developing goalies. That's fair, they have had three starters through their system in the last two decades or so (and a whole bunch of failed attempts as well).

 

Looking at them though all shared starts with 30 something AHL vets and all were in their mid 20s (or later) when they broke into the NHL. Binnington spent 6 seasons splitting starts. Jake Allen went 4 seasons doing that. Bishop spent 9 seasons. Further Bishop never cracked the Blues line up, Allen is average, and Binnington has crashed to earth after his magical playoff run. 

 

There isn't a secret recipe and there isn't one way to develop goalies. The Flames need to be better, absolutely. But their failures isn't because they are too old, or because they have taken shots on guys like Rittich/Ramo/Berra, or because there has been too much competition. 

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5 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

The Flames haven't been successful drafting and developing goalies. No question, I am not disputing that. 

 

My point is that every team has their David Rittich's and other veteran goalies. And every team has their long list of Ortios and Brossoits and Gilles that didn't make it. Every team also has a dreadful hit percentage on drafted goalies. 

 

You mentioned the Blues as a team strong at developing goalies. That's fair, they have had three starters through their system in the last two decades or so (and a whole bunch of failed attempts as well).

 

Looking at them though all shared starts with 30 something AHL vets and all were in their mid 20s (or later) when they broke into the NHL. Binnington spent 6 seasons splitting starts. Jake Allen went 4 seasons doing that. Bishop spent 9 seasons. Further Bishop never cracked the Blues line up, Allen is average, and Binnington has crashed to earth after his magical playoff run. 

 

There isn't a secret recipe and there isn't one way to develop goalies. The Flames need to be better, absolutely. But their failures isn't because they are too old, or because they have taken shots on guys like Rittich/Ramo/Berra, or because there has been too much competition. 

 

That's fair, 

 

But, some teams accept the reality that developing NHL starters is unlikey, and wait until they get lucky.

 

Other teams do something about it and win cups.

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Lets try and move onto something more positive.  I think there are some (gasp) reasons for optimism right now.  For a few reasons. 

 

Almost every team is bad at drafting and developing goalies

 

I looked at each NHL teams drafted goalies from 2005 through 2014 drafts.  This covers ten drafts over the cap era without getting into guys who are still developing.  I considered any goalie with at least 100 NHL starts as a success. 

 

image.thumb.png.63d5938ca9fcf221bdc9ed07f15ac227.png

 

 

207 goalies were drafted over those 10 years.  16% of them played 100 games or more.  Remove the career back-ups and your at 11%.  Remove the guys who broke out with another team and you are at 9%.   A third of the league went 10 drafts without getting an NHL goalie, just like Calgary (though Brossoit will likely break the 100 game mark, just not with Calgary).  

 

The point is, Calgary isn't unique in our lack of finding NHL goalies in the draft, and our struggles don't translate to a permanent curse.  Tampa drafted and developed the best goalie in the NHL.  They have drafted 28 goalies over the entire franchise and that was their only hit to date.  

 

We have a number of prospects worth paying attention to

 

We have had prospects to get excited about in the past. I get the 'fool me once' tone, but its been a bit since we have had two AAA prospects and prospects across multiple levels.

 

  • (NHL) Vlader was only moved due to to congestion in Boston's crease (sound familiar) and was moved versus losing him on waivers.  He looked great 4 of the 5 NHL games he started for last season (and 5 was a throw away).  His pro numbers are really good, and its tough to find many in the know who don't think this guy has NHL upside.  A lot of Boston fans are really upset they lost him.  
  • (AHL/Junior) Wolf's numbers are insane.  The Hockey Writers have him ranked as the 4 best goalie prospect in the NHL (one spot behind the guy who caused Vlader to be traded to Calgary), and that is pretty consistent across the league.  Most prospect rankings have Wolf as our fourth best prospect, behind our three first round picks.  If he wasn't a bit on the short side (for a goalie) he would be ranked higher.  I know that height is an issue, but he isn't that short.  Saros, Halak, Quick, Grubaur, etc are all similar height.  
  • (Others) Lets face it, the best goalies are often the ones we didn't expect.  Sergeyev is a great dark horse prospect.  He has passed every test handed to him, he just needs some tougher tests.  Chechelev has put up some good numbers in Russia and is making his way to NA.  Parsons was highly touted as a prospect before injury, but he rebounded well in the ECHL last season.  I keep hearing good things about Werner even though his resume doesn't really scream future NHLer.  I get that every team has these types of prospects, and most won't work out.  But the Flames have a lot of bullets in this gun significantly improving the chance at a hit.  

The point is we will have valid prospects at the NHL level, AHL level, and one representing each of the last three drafts.  Two of those prospects are highly ranked, with one of them listed as one of the best goalie prospects in the NHL.  Meanwhile, we have no need to rush any of them as we have a legitimate NHL starter in net.  

 

Don't worry, be happy .... 

 

I know enough not to overplay the goalie hand.  Its possible none of the guys above work out.  But I can't remember the last time Calgary was this flush in legitimate NHL players and prospect at the G position.  The history is a concern, but as I said above, that isn't unique to Calgary and some of the best goalies in the league were drafted and developed by teams who historically struggle doing that.  

 

I think goal tending prospects is an area of strength for the organization right now.  It certainly isn't inline with the general tone of this thread.  

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21 minutes ago, kehatch said:

Lets try and move onto something more positive.  I think there are some (gasp) reasons for optimism right now.  For a few reasons. 

 

Almost every team is bad at drafting and developing goalies

 

I looked at each NHL teams drafted goalies from 2005 through 2014 drafts.  This covers ten drafts over the cap era without getting into guys who are still developing.  I considered any goalie with at least 100 NHL starts as a success. 

 

image.thumb.png.63d5938ca9fcf221bdc9ed07f15ac227.png

 

 

207 goalies were drafted over those 10 years.  16% of them played 100 games or more.  Remove the career back-ups and your at 11%.  Remove the guys who broke out with another team and you are at 9%.   A third of the league went 10 drafts without getting an NHL goalie, just like Calgary (though Brossoit will likely break the 100 game mark, just not with Calgary).  

 

The point is, Calgary isn't unique in our lack of finding NHL goalies in the draft, and our struggles don't translate to a permanent curse.  Tampa drafted and developed the best goalie in the NHL.  They have drafted 28 goalies over the entire franchise and that was their only hit to date.  

 

We have a number of prospects worth paying attention to

 

We have had prospects to get excited about in the past. I get the 'fool me once' tone, but its been a bit since we have had two AAA prospects and prospects across multiple levels.

 

  • (NHL) Vlader was only moved due to to congestion in Boston's crease (sound familiar) and was moved versus losing him on waivers.  He looked great 4 of the 5 NHL games he started for last season (and 5 was a throw away).  His pro numbers are really good, and its tough to find many in the know who don't think this guy has NHL upside.  A lot of Boston fans are really upset they lost him.  
  • (AHL/Junior) Wolf's numbers are insane.  The Hockey Writers have him ranked as the 4 best goalie prospect in the NHL (one spot behind the guy who caused Vlader to be traded to Calgary), and that is pretty consistent across the league.  Most prospect rankings have Wolf as our fourth best prospect, behind our three first round picks.  If he wasn't a bit on the short side (for a goalie) he would be ranked higher.  I know that height is an issue, but he isn't that short.  Saros, Halak, Quick, Grubaur, etc are all similar height.  
  • (Others) Lets face it, the best goalies are often the ones we didn't expect.  Sergeyev is a great dark horse prospect.  He has passed every test handed to him, he just needs some tougher tests.  Chechelev has put up some good numbers in Russia and is making his way to NA.  Parsons was highly touted as a prospect before injury, but he rebounded well in the ECHL last season.  I keep hearing good things about Werner even though his resume doesn't really scream future NHLer.  I get that every team has these types of prospects, and most won't work out.  But the Flames have a lot of bullets in this gun significantly improving the chance at a hit.  

The point is we will have valid prospects at the NHL level, AHL level, and one representing each of the last three drafts.  Two of those prospects are highly ranked, with one of them listed as one of the best goalie prospects in the NHL.  Meanwhile, we have no need to rush any of them as we have a legitimate NHL starter in net.  

 

Don't worry, be happy .... 

 

I know enough not to overplay the goalie hand.  Its possible none of the guys above work out.  But I can't remember the last time Calgary was this flush in legitimate NHL players and prospect at the G position.  The history is a concern, but as I said above, that isn't unique to Calgary and some of the best goalies in the league were drafted and developed by teams who historically struggle doing that.  

 

I think goal tending prospects is an area of strength for the organization right now.  It certainly isn't inline with the general tone of this thread.  


this is a great post. Well researched and well said. 

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3 hours ago, kehatch said:

Lets try and move onto something more positive.  I think there are some (gasp) reasons for optimism right now.  For a few reasons. 

 

Almost every team is bad at drafting and developing goalies

 

I looked at each NHL teams drafted goalies from 2005 through 2014 drafts.  This covers ten drafts over the cap era without getting into guys who are still developing.  I considered any goalie with at least 100 NHL starts as a success. 

 

image.thumb.png.63d5938ca9fcf221bdc9ed07f15ac227.png

 

 

207 goalies were drafted over those 10 years.  16% of them played 100 games or more.  Remove the career back-ups and your at 11%.  Remove the guys who broke out with another team and you are at 9%.   A third of the league went 10 drafts without getting an NHL goalie, just like Calgary (though Brossoit will likely break the 100 game mark, just not with Calgary).  

 

The point is, Calgary isn't unique in our lack of finding NHL goalies in the draft, and our struggles don't translate to a permanent curse.  Tampa drafted and developed the best goalie in the NHL.  They have drafted 28 goalies over the entire franchise and that was their only hit to date.  

 

We have a number of prospects worth paying attention to

 

We have had prospects to get excited about in the past. I get the 'fool me once' tone, but its been a bit since we have had two AAA prospects and prospects across multiple levels.

 

  • (NHL) Vlader was only moved due to to congestion in Boston's crease (sound familiar) and was moved versus losing him on waivers.  He looked great 4 of the 5 NHL games he started for last season (and 5 was a throw away).  His pro numbers are really good, and its tough to find many in the know who don't think this guy has NHL upside.  A lot of Boston fans are really upset they lost him.  
  • (AHL/Junior) Wolf's numbers are insane.  The Hockey Writers have him ranked as the 4 best goalie prospect in the NHL (one spot behind the guy who caused Vlader to be traded to Calgary), and that is pretty consistent across the league.  Most prospect rankings have Wolf as our fourth best prospect, behind our three first round picks.  If he wasn't a bit on the short side (for a goalie) he would be ranked higher.  I know that height is an issue, but he isn't that short.  Saros, Halak, Quick, Grubaur, etc are all similar height.  
  • (Others) Lets face it, the best goalies are often the ones we didn't expect.  Sergeyev is a great dark horse prospect.  He has passed every test handed to him, he just needs some tougher tests.  Chechelev has put up some good numbers in Russia and is making his way to NA.  Parsons was highly touted as a prospect before injury, but he rebounded well in the ECHL last season.  I keep hearing good things about Werner even though his resume doesn't really scream future NHLer.  I get that every team has these types of prospects, and most won't work out.  But the Flames have a lot of bullets in this gun significantly improving the chance at a hit.  

The point is we will have valid prospects at the NHL level, AHL level, and one representing each of the last three drafts.  Two of those prospects are highly ranked, with one of them listed as one of the best goalie prospects in the NHL.  Meanwhile, we have no need to rush any of them as we have a legitimate NHL starter in net.  

 

Don't worry, be happy .... 

 

I know enough not to overplay the goalie hand.  Its possible none of the guys above work out.  But I can't remember the last time Calgary was this flush in legitimate NHL players and prospect at the G position.  The history is a concern, but as I said above, that isn't unique to Calgary and some of the best goalies in the league were drafted and developed by teams who historically struggle doing that.  

 

I think goal tending prospects is an area of strength for the organization right now.  It certainly isn't inline with the general tone of this thread.  

 

 

Thank you very much for taking the time to go through this, honestly, this is something I wish I had the time to do and very very rarely get anymore except maybe on a vacation.

 

You made a strong case in some areas to our point, others I think work against your case.     Regardless, it is valuable and quite frankly very interesting data.

 

The bad:     Simply put, Calgary is at the bottom of this list and that is expected.  Sure we should be positive.  Sure the context helps.
                   But we're at the bottom and there are reasons for that, and some of those reasons need more than positivity to fix.

                   Your list didn't only show that we're at the bottom.  Look at the teams we are with in that cluster.  They are both aweful and embarrassing.

                    It implies even more than that we are at the bottom.   It implies the consequences of being at the bottom and why this is such an important topic.

 

The good:   Sure lots of other teams struggle.
                    Vladar:  I like.  I think he has a very high ceiling.   Is Sigalet the guy to realize that ceiling?  Still questions.   But he is without a doubt a positive for us.

                    Wolf:  Agreed.  He is among the most skilled goalies in the world for his age, and I'm talking top 3-5.    With his size he is a gamble, but better than a lotto ticket.

                    The others:   I will give you Sergeev.  I think Sergeev is a particularly fascinating dark horse.  A lotto ticket any team would want.

                                         I will grant him that status for a year, if he has a great year this year he has the potential to become our top prospect, even toppling Wolf.

                                         *None of the others you mentioned are even the slightest bit interesting though, they are taking up space.

                                          I don't mean they won't impress us early.  They are older veterans that have many years on our prospects.

                                              They may impress early, they may take minutes away from prospect development, but in the end they will disappoint.

 

 

Discussion:   You ran the numbers, we came up worst in the NHL, you provided some context, and sure.  I agree.   Maybe we're not actually worst.    But we're nowhere, nowhere near best and that, for goaltending, is simply not acceptable if anyone wants to see a cup here.   Your data clearly reflects that.        

                   What I get from this data is about 10% of drafted goalies return value.  Maybe a little higher if you include career backups.

                   While that return value seems low, keep in mind that getting a starting goalie is probably the most valuable return you can get in hockey.

                   It is higher than a first line D, a first line Winger, and I will argue slightly better than a first-line C.

                   I think we would find that if we ran this for Centers, for instance, the chance of getting a first-line Center, out of drafted Centers, would also be well below 10%.

  

                  So, the way I read this data, I don't buy that drafting goalies is a waste of a pick, if done right.   In fact the return is very real, statistically.

                   I think if you isolated for goalies in the first round, you would also see the value there.

 

                   What I see with this data is cup winners and contenders, with some exceptions, taking goaltending seriously.

                   Yes Tampa only got it right once, but they Always took their goaltending seriously.    Look at what they went through to acquire Khabibulin.

                         Having anything less than a top 5 goalie was unacceptable to them, they did what it took and they have the cups to show for it.

 

                   What I see with the Flames is firstly, a below-average number of goalies drafted, and, let's keep in mind most of them were 6th or 7th overall.

                          I see zero success and we can take that back much further than you did (not that I blame you for not going further).

                          Of the goalies we drafted, they demonstrate an issue in both our drafting and development.

 

                   Yes, we have positives in Vladar, Wolf, Sergeev.

 

                   Yes, it is good we all recognize there's a problem.

 

                   Sure, me just bashing the system all offseason doesn't accomplish anything.   

 

                   That said, we've all got our hobbies.    

                    Vladar is promising, but I don't know that we have the system in place for him to reach his potential.  We need to work on that.

                    Wolf his high risk high reward.   He is great to have, but not big enough for us to say we have a plan.  He is someone worth developing.  We aren't good at that.

                    Sergeev is promising and worth following.   Again, at this stage high risk, high reward.  Not yet someone we can call a plan.

                    It's not enough.

                    And the Flames, it seems, agree.  They have responded by acquiring bucketloads of older veterans with Extremely slight chances of having any NHL value at all.   Again, look at your status 10% odds.   When odds are unusually low, is the best way to respond to that acquiring the players with the Lowest of those low odds, in bulk?   And throwing resources at them?   Quick math check, it's not.    It's mitigating the 10% odds with the highest odds players available and throwing resources at them.

                    

                    I am saying, loading up with outside chances isn't making it better.   

                    It's a bunch of lotto tickets and shows that they  are more concerned with coverage and 2021/2022 immediate needs than they are with development.

                    Their track record shows this has been their priority for a while.

 

                    Generally speaking, I look forward to when the word "rebuild" is not a dirty word on here, when it is a positive word.

                       And the very first step to that should be goaltending and the goaltender development system.

                       I believe it is possible for that to occur in a positive way, and in fact I think we will see it.

                    

 

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The Flames re-structured the goalie coaching staff back in December. Sigalet is now Director of goalie staff, basically overseeing from the top including drafting. LaBarbera is now NHL goalie coach with Speer being the AHL and prospect coach based in Stockton. Speer was formally head of US national hockey goalie development.

 

I think we have less to worry with Sigalet and development now.

 

 I would say we have some goalies to be excited about, but also need to be realistic about odds. I honestly think Parsons is essentially out of the picture for the Flames unless he all of a sudden shines in camp and to start the season.

 

 I would think that they are hedging their bets with one of Wolf, Chechelev or Sergeyev to develop into a starter in 3-4 seasons. None of them are ready to be back up to Markstrom so they grabbed Vladar while Werner likely gives AHL experience in net to keep pressure off of whoever comes in to play (looks like Chechelev). Wolf likely overage back in Junior, Parsons loaned out or traded. Sergeyev in USHL. 

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On 9/10/2021 at 4:57 PM, kehatch said:

 

Before drafting Vasilevskiy in the first round, the Lightning drafted 16 goalies the previous 12 years.  Of them one played more then 100 NHL games, and that was Kari Ramo. Vasilevskiy himself went on to play two seasons in the KHL, the first as a back-up and in the second he shared starts.  His following two seasons he bounced between the AHL and NHL, and finally got the net following a Ben Bishop injury in the 2016-17 season.  

 

I appreciate the Flames haven't been stellar at drafting and developing goalies.  But the suggestion that Rittich playing 43 games over two seasons in the AHL 'clogged up' the system or impacted Ortio's development is insane.  They didn't even play in the AHL at the same time.  The suggestion that Ortio screams a missed opportunity is also a little bonkers.  He had one strong year in the AHL in his D+5 season.  He was rewarded with 9 NHL starts.  The Flames gave him 6 then 22 NHL starts the following two seasons.  The net was his to take and he fell short.  Finally, the doom and gloom around the Flames is silly.  There are MANY NHL teams (see Tampa) that struggle in this area.  The odds just aren't good due to the delay in goalie development and the importance of the position.  Their failure to date doesn't exclude success tomorrow (again, see Tampa). 

 

The Flames have a number of good options in the pipeline right now.  That is good news. 

looking for the next Kipper is absolute insanity.. Kipper bacame special not because of development or anything except he was an exceptional person.. He did however.. constantly scream at the d men and yell at them not to clog the front of the net thus preventing him from  seeing and stopping the puck.. Sooooooo.. they in turn moved the opposition to the side boards and it has taken years for the Flames not to play in front of the net.. While we're on it.. What is sigalets claim to fame as a goalie coach anyhow??? 

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