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Brad Treliving - GM Tracking & Evaluation

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To me anything 3 years or less is a disaster. You are saving money at a time when you are not a contender only to spend more when you are?

Makes no sense to me. I know the response is going yk be well they can then sign guys in Ufa that can help now and make them a contender but do you really think those players are going k sign short term deals?

Anything less than 5 years is a recipe for disaster IMO.

I believe 8 years is the best, but the Cap controls all, and if it remains flat for several years (even 1) it is going to wreak havoc on a lot of teams.  The one thing that short contracts do is give you a much better view on the Cap and its implications for a team.  Look at Montreal with PK, going LT has hampered them once the Cap flattened out versus what they were presuming when the deal was signed. 

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I believe 8 years is the best, but the Cap controls all, and if it remains flat for several years (even 1) it is going to wreak havoc on a lot of teams.  The one thing that short contracts do is give you a much better view on the Cap and its implications for a team.  Look at Montreal with PK, going LT has hampered them once the Cap flattened out versus what they were presuming when the deal was signed. 

 

This is why I think the NHL has gone too high with their star's contracts. Sure they deserve the money in a perfect world, but they also could price out any middle tier players thus making the NHL less entertaining. 

I just don't believe the revenue structure in the NHL is able to sustain the prices of the higher calibre players. 

 

This is my view:

 

Sure Kane, Toews, Crosby deserve the 10m, I guess... They've won cups and are the top of their games. 

I really think they should only go to 8.

 

This is why Subban doesn't deserve 9m. He hasn't done anything to warrant that contract. 

I think he is a 7.5 guy. And that's where the next tier down should be.

 

I think that the Gaudreaus and Monahans should be around 5.5. I get the argument that they don't have a team built yet so they don't really have a  chance of making the playoffs... But they're not at the level yet to get you success. That's when they should be bumped up to 7.5M, when we're a consistent playoff team. When we're winning cups. 

That's in a perfect world though.

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This is why I think the NHL has gone too high with their star's contracts. Sure they deserve the money in a perfect world, but they also could price out any middle tier players thus making the NHL less entertaining. 

I just don't believe the revenue structure in the NHL is able to sustain the prices of the higher calibre players. 

 

This is my view:

 

Sure Kane, Toews, Crosby deserve the 10m, I guess... They've won cups and are the top of their games. 

I really think they should only go to 8.

 

This is why Subban doesn't deserve 9m. He hasn't done anything to warrant that contract. 

I think he is a 7.5 guy. And that's where the next tier down should be.

 

I think that the Gaudreaus and Monahans should be around 5.5. I get the argument that they don't have a team built yet so they don't really have a  chance of making the playoffs... But they're not at the level yet to get you success. That's when they should be bumped up to 7.5M, when we're a consistent playoff team. When we're winning cups. 

That's in a perfect world though.

 

It's not the revenue as much as it was the cap structure of the CBA.  Years ago, players were making a ton.  Crosby signed for 8.7m for 12 years.  He was making 12m in year 1 and will be down to 3m in year 12.  The cap balances out what you can do in that case now.

 

What I am getting at is the cap eliminated the New York Yankees of hockey, where the rich teams paid double of poor teams.  The star players still deserve and are getting the top salaries.  The cap is squeezing out the middle guys.  Blame it on the stars if you like, but the reality is that the owners want more of the revenue.  Fans pay to see the top players, not the MOR players.

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I like the middle guys even more than the stars. A lot of the time they're harder workers and drive the team. But that's another conversation.

Not when you have Lupal and co on the second line though... But ya. :)

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IMO, the term on both of these guys is a no-brainer.  8 years.  Monahan and JH (especially Johnny) put bums in seats and they are the franchise going forward.  Even if it's $8 million for JH, they have to do it.  I'm not sure what's taking so long with this but I'm starting to get worried.  Although BT doesn't seem to be a guy who rushes anything.

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BT will get it done, I could even see a reasonable bargain with JH $ 7-7.5M range and Monny $6.5-7M. The goalie is the big puzzle, it would be nice to keep 2 of our 3 2nd Rd picks to acquire a goalie, maybe package one with a D prospect. If we can somehow drop salary and pick up a RW like Okposo our 1st and and 2nd lines are set at RW with Frolik in there. New coach and a ton of contracts to negotiate...their doing things quietly behind the scenes and it won't surprise me if we hear multiple announcements

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Searched for a thread on Treliving's moves and didn't find one. 

 

Treliving became the Flames 7th GM on April 28th, 2014. This was also the day Peter Maher announced his retirement - definitely a date to mark the emergence of the new Flames.

 

This thread is to track, evaluate and discuss his moves since being hired. BT has largely inherited a ideal GM situation but this team does not have his long-term mark on it yet. It will as time goes on. His moves so far are:  

 

Trades

 

March 2, 2015 - trades Sven Baertschi to the Canucks for a 2nd (2015) 

March 1, 2015 - trades Curtis Glencross to the Capitals for a 2nd (2015) and a 3rd (2015)

Jan 9, 2015 - trades Corban Knight to the Panthers for Drew Shore

June 28, 2014 - trades 2014 3rd to the Blackhawks for Brandon Bollig

 

*** June 19, 2015 - trades 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks to the Bruins for Dougie Hamilton *** (This may be one of the best trades in Flames history) 

July 1, 2015 - trades rights to Max Reinhart to the Preds for a conditional 4th round pick.

 

2014 Draft for BT

 

Sam Bennet (4th)

Mason McDonald (34th)

Hunter Smith (54th)

Brandon Hickey (64th)

Ollas Mattsson (175th)

Austin Carrol (184th)

 

2015 Draft for BT

 

Rasmus Andersson (53rd overall)

Oliver Kylington (60th overall)

Pavel Karnaukhov (136 overall)

Andrew Mangiapane (166 overall) 

Riley Bruce (196 overall) 

 

Signings / Waivers:

 

2014

 

Mason Raymond - 3yrs @ 3.15

Jonas Hiller - 2yrs @ 4.5

Deryk Engelland - 3yrs @ 2.9 

Devon Setoguchi - 1yr @ 1.75

Kris Russell - 2 years @ 2.6 million 

Joe Colburne - 2 yrs 1.275

Joni Ortio  - 2 yrs @ 600K

T.J Brodie - 5 yrs @ 4.65

Potter - 1 yr @ 700K

Diaz - 1yr @ 750K 

David Schlemko  (waivers)

 

( Coach Hartley to a multi-year deal )

 

2015

 

Mikael Backlund - 3 years @ 3.75

Michael Frolik - 5 years @ 4.3 

Dougie Hamilton - 6 years @ 5.75

Karri Ramo - 1 year @ 3.8

Lance Bouma - 3 years @ 2.2

Josh Jooris - 1 year @ 975K

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Fills out his management ranks (keeps Craig Conroy and promotes to Assistant GM, hires Brad Pascall as Assistant GM and hires Troy Crowder in player developement) - Fires Troy Ward and Robbie Ftorek (Heat's coaches) and fires Flames Goalie coach Clint Malarchuk / hires Jordan Sigalet as Goalie coach. Hires Ryan Huska as new coach of the Heat / Adirondack Flames

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Off-season is usually the busiest time for a GM and I will continue to track BT's significant moves as time goes on.

Wish BT would of taken the first rated goalie that year ( Thatcher Demko). Mason faces a lot of shots in the Q but Demkos stats with Boston college is stellar.

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I apologize for my actions on this thread a week ago. Got into the beers and posted angry threads towards BT. I like the guy he's a good GM. Sorry if I made anyone feel uncomfortable. I was warned by the Mods. We're all having insightful thoughts towards our team. Thought I had to say something.

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BT will get it done, I could even see a reasonable bargain with JH $ 7-7.5M range and Monny $6.5-7M. The goalie is the big puzzle, it would be nice to keep 2 of our 3 2nd Rd picks to acquire a goalie, maybe package one with a D prospect. If we can somehow drop salary and pick up a RW like Okposo our 1st and and 2nd lines are set at RW with Frolik in there. New coach and a ton of contracts to negotiate...their doing things quietly behind the scenes and it won't surprise me if we hear multiple announcements

The oilers gave their big boys extensions even before they produced at an NHL level. JG and SM have produced so I'm my mind they deserve what RNH got and Hall. They're our big guns.

The oilers gave their big boys extensions even before they produced at an NHL level. JG and SM have produced so I'm my mind they deserve what RNH got and Hall. They're our big guns.

You're right goalie is a huge puzzle.

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5 years to me is not a bridge deal. A bridge deal is 2-3 years once you start talking 5 years or more you are in long term territory. 5 years is a very long time in pro sports IMO.

I think 5 years is a reasonable contract length and I'd be fine discussing 5 years for both but tricky thing is you arnt buying many UFA years so more risk to the flames and what do you get in return? How much are you gojng to save by going 5 years versus 6 or 7? If it's only a mill or less on AAv is it worth it?

I very much doubt the flames will go less then on 5 years with either. Really does not make sense to do so IMO. They may not go 7 or 8 years so if that's what you mean I agree but less then 5 I do not see it. I think they want to lock up their core and give it a shot for at least 4-5 seasons and they'll value that security more than saving a few bucks. I don't believe you get ahead by underpaying your stars, pay your starts and then surrounding them by underpaid talent.

Can BT not tier a partial bridge within a 8 year deal ? the situation may evolve where BT cannot unload any of these players we have all discussed. All were within this rebuild taking a full 3 years which included this next season. Perhaps finding takers for the redundancy is what is holding up the finalization of these 3 contracts.

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This is why I think the NHL has gone too high with their star's contracts. Sure they deserve the money in a perfect world, but they also could price out any middle tier players thus making the NHL less entertaining. 

I just don't believe the revenue structure in the NHL is able to sustain the prices of the higher calibre players. 

 

This is my view:

 

Sure Kane, Toews, Crosby deserve the 10m, I guess... They've won cups and are the top of their games. 

I really think they should only go to 8.

 5

This is why Subban doesn't deserve 9m. He hasn't done anything to warrant that contract. 

I think he is a 7.5 guy. And that's where the next tier down should be.

 

I think that the Gaudreaus and Monahans should be around 5.5. I get the argument that they don't have a team built yet so they don't really have a  chance of making the playoffs... But they're not at the level yet to get you success. That's when they should be bumped up to 7.5M, when we're a consistent playoff team. When we're winning cups. 

That's in a perfect world though.

This is wherw im coming from as well. As always the owners arw their own worst enemies.

Reality is that BT will be forced to give 2 high cost high term contracts. Relatively, 8x6M will be a steal.

The Halls, Tarasenkos, and Subbans have basically destroyed the system. Yes, I get that the goal was to save future money, but it really doesnt.

Ideally? J&M should get 2-3 year 4M deals.but this wont happen. That rewards their ELC achievements and places them with huge raises.

Id like to see a GM take a stand and do it right. Many will call that insult, but is it?? I wont blame BT for doing the expected, but point I was trying to get at earlier is hes in a perfect position to do it. He has no threat of a Johnny offer sheet. Hes fighting an agent and the system, not johnny. Of what ive seen of his mom and dad, theyd tell him to sign a 4mill bridge and like it.

But, as mentioned before, so long as owners keep selling out on these deals there is no leverage

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This is wherw im coming from as well. As always the owners arw their own worst enemies.

Reality is that BT will be forced to give 2 high cost high term contracts. Relatively, 8x6M will be a steal.

The Halls, Tarasenkos, and Subbans have basically destroyed the system. Yes, I get that the goal was to save future money, but it really doesnt.

Ideally? J&M should get 2-3 year 4M deals.but this wont happen. That rewards their ELC achievements and places them with huge raises.

Id like to see a GM take a stand and do it right. Many will call that insult, but is it?? I wont blame BT for doing the expected, but point I was trying to get at earlier is hes in a perfect position to do it. He has no threat of a Johnny offer sheet. Hes fighting an agent and the system, not johnny. Of what ive seen of his mom and dad, theyd tell him to sign a 4mill bridge and like it.

But, as mentioned before, so long as owners keep selling out on these deals there is no leverage

Hard to say where all this will end until the talent level comes up throughout the league and the players themselves demand better pay levels all around. Sooner or later you run out of where to trade players to for cap reasons.

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Hard to say where all this will end until the talent level comes up throughout the league and the players themselves demand better pay levels all around. Sooner or later you run out of where to trade players to for cap reasons.

I dont think it will ever get fixed, it will just continue to cycle from CBA to CBA.like I mentioned before I think we need a football style system. Franchse tags, non guaranteed deals. I can see the next cba addressing ELC exit contracts

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I dont think it will ever get fixed, it will just continue to cycle from CBA to CBA.like I mentioned before I think we need a football style system. Franchse tags, non guaranteed deals. I can see the next cba addressing ELC exit contracts

Non-guaranteed (performance-based) contracts would go a long ways to fixing these many contract issues, as well as keeping guys motivated every year. Personally I don't like the Franchise tags, why needed?

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Non-guaranteed (performance-based) contracts would go a long ways to fixing these many contract issues, as well as keeping guys motivated every year. Personally I don't like the Franchise tags, why needed?

It gives you some protection over your elite UFA players. The way it works in the NFL for example, if you franchise tag a player, hes guaranteed a one year deal at an average of the top paid players at his position, but it also puts pressure on both sides to work out a long term deal. Yes the player hates it, but it ultimately benefits both sides.

I dont see either of those things getting approved in a cba tho...what could fly, is an exceptional tag..where one player is deemed exempt from the cap calculation.

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This is wherw im coming from as well. As always the owners arw their own worst enemies.

Reality is that BT will be forced to give 2 high cost high term contracts. Relatively, 8x6M will be a steal.

The Halls, Tarasenkos, and Subbans have basically destroyed the system. Yes, I get that the goal was to save future money, but it really doesnt.

Ideally? J&M should get 2-3 year 4M deals.but this wont happen. That rewards their ELC achievements and places them with huge raises.

Id like to see a GM take a stand and do it right. Many will call that insult, but is it?? I wont blame BT for doing the expected, but point I was trying to get at earlier is hes in a perfect position to do it. He has no threat of a Johnny offer sheet. Hes fighting an agent and the system, not johnny. Of what ive seen of his mom and dad, theyd tell him to sign a 4mill bridge and like it.

But, as mentioned before, so long as owners keep selling out on these deals there is no leverage

 

You do recall that MTL used a bridge deal on Subban.  His performance during those years ended up pricing himself that high in the next deal.  And the blame really has to go to owners that throw out these crazy deals.  Suter, Parise, Malkin, Crosby, Ovi....These were deals that allowed the owners to pay over 10m to a player, but used a backdiving contract to keep the cap lower.

 

The stars are earning the money, as they are the ones that fans pay extra for (merchandizing, etc).  The GM's are the ones creating the cap problems on their teams by overpaying for middling talent.  

 

Johnny Hockey was top 10 in league scoring in his 2nd year.  Let that sink in.  Do you think he deserves less than Kopitar got in his 2nd contract?

 

It gives you some protection over your elite UFA players. The way it works in the NFL for example, if you franchise tag a player, hes guaranteed a one year deal at an average of the top paid players at his position, but it also puts pressure on both sides to work out a long term deal. Yes the player hates it, but it ultimately benefits both sides.

I dont see either of those things getting approved in a cba tho...what could fly, is an exceptional tag..where one player is deemed exempt from the cap calculation.

 

I doubt there will be any mass changes to the CBA the next time around.  The NHLPA and NHL would never be able to agree to anything radical.  

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You do recall that MTL used a bridge deal on Subban.  His performance during those years ended up pricing himself that high in the next deal.  And the blame really has to go to owners that throw out these crazy deals.  Suter, Parise, Malkin, Crosby, Ovi....These were deals that allowed the owners to pay over 10m to a player, but used a backdiving contract to keep the cap lower.

 

The stars are earning the money, as they are the ones that fans pay extra for (merchandizing, etc).  The GM's are the ones creating the cap problems on their teams by overpaying for middling talent.  

 

Johnny Hockey was top 10 in league scoring in his 2nd year.  Let that sink in.  Do you think he deserves less than Kopitar got in his 2nd contract?

 

 

I doubt there will be any mass changes to the CBA the next time around.  The NHLPA and NHL would never be able to agree to anything radical.  

 

 

oh , Ive never blamed the players, cant blame them at all for wanting what appears to be comparable market value.What i'm saying is they need to stop creating the com parables.

Tarasenko did not deserve the contract he got. If you use Kane and Toews as the benchmarks (which  i still feel is too high , but it is what it is ).. they led their team to a Stanley Cup before they signed that , they had performed at a high level for 8 YEARS  before they got paid that .

How is Tarasenko even in the same realm?  no way Subban is worth 9 M. I love Johnny, but he is in his 2nd full season and he has been top 10 in scoring ONCE, how is he worth 75- 80% of a Kane and Toews?

I fully expect Johnny to hit that level , but no .. they havent earned a contract in that realm .. but again .. the owners set the comparables, and becasue of that , they are in the discussion .. I dont blame Johnny a bit for wanting what Tarasenko gets.. or for what Forsberg will get ..  but until onwers/ managers stop creating it for themselves, it is what it is 

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oh , Ive never blamed the players, cant blame them at all for wanting what appears to be comparable market value.What i'm saying is they need to stop creating the com parables.

Tarasenko did not deserve the contract he got. If you use Kane and Toews as the benchmarks (which  i still feel is too high , but it is what it is ).. they led their team to a Stanley Cup before they signed that , they had performed at a high level for 8 YEARS  before they got paid that .

How is Tarasenko even in the same realm?  no way Subban is worth 9 M. I love Johnny, but he is in his 2nd full season and he has been top 10 in scoring ONCE, how is he worth 75- 80% of a Kane and Toews?

I fully expect Johnny to hit that level , but no .. they havent earned a contract in that realm .. but again .. the owners set the comparables, and becasue of that , they are in the discussion .. I dont blame Johnny a bit for wanting what Tarasenko gets.. or for what Forsberg will get ..  but until onwers/ managers stop creating it for themselves, it is what it is 

 

If you look at their 2nd contract, you see what the market should be for Johnny and Monahan.  The career numbers for both are similar to what Johnny and Mony produced.  Toews and Kane got $6.3m over 5 years.  Now, project $6.3m from 2010 to 2016 dollars.  If you consider the results to be anywhere similar to Toews and Kane, then a 5 year deal at $6.75-7m is reasonable.

Buying years of UFA is what bumps it up a bit more.  Tarasenko's deal is far more desirable when you buy those years.

 

Inflation, future value of 2010 dollars, and buying UFA years all account for deals in the range of $6-7.5m.  Using a bridge deal bumps up the future cost of resigning these players.

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If you look at their 2nd contract, you see what the market should be for Johnny and Monahan.  The career numbers for both are similar to what Johnny and Mony produced.  Toews and Kane got $6.3m over 5 years.  Now, project $6.3m from 2010 to 2016 dollars.  If you consider the results to be anywhere similar to Toews and Kane, then a 5 year deal at $6.75-7m is reasonable.

Buying years of UFA is what bumps it up a bit more.  Tarasenko's deal is far more desirable when you buy those years.

 

Inflation, future value of 2010 dollars, and buying UFA years all account for deals in the range of $6-7.5m.  Using a bridge deal bumps up the future cost of resigning these players.

 

 

again , Im not denying what the comparables are..im saying the values are too high. basically the teams and players both gamble.. the team tries to give more than the player is worth now, in the hopes of paying less than their value later .

Im saying the system needs to change, 99% of the clauses in the CBA are there to save the owners from themselves--  no longer can overhyped rookies get top $ contracts.. that's great.. now we have to protect against second contracts.

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If you look at their 2nd contract, you see what the market should be for Johnny and Monahan.  The career numbers for both are similar to what Johnny and Mony produced.  Toews and Kane got $6.3m over 5 years.  Now, project $6.3m from 2010 to 2016 dollars.  If you consider the results to be anywhere similar to Toews and Kane, then a 5 year deal at $6.75-7m is reasonable.

Buying years of UFA is what bumps it up a bit more.  Tarasenko's deal is far more desirable when you buy those years.

 

Inflation, future value of 2010 dollars, and buying UFA years all account for deals in the range of $6-7.5m.  Using a bridge deal bumps up the future cost of resigning these players.

 

And your numbers, which I agree with, don't even take into account the marketability of Johnny Hockey.  Every kid in Calgary and in other cities are getting on the Johnny Hockey bandwagon.  The Flames would be wise to get him signed to 8 years right now and not mess around with bridge contracts.

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again , Im not denying what the comparables are..im saying the values are too high. basically the teams and players both gamble.. the team tries to give more than the player is worth now, in the hopes of paying less than their value later .

Im saying the system needs to change, 99% of the clauses in the CBA are there to save the owners from themselves--  no longer can overhyped rookies get top $ contracts.. that's great.. now we have to protect against second contracts.

 

Tell that to the other major league sports.  Bautista makes 14m a year.  What do pro soccer players make?  NBA stars like Lebron made 23m.  Since the salaries are tied to revenue, the top players will make the top money.  Why should Kane make the same as Troy Brouwer?  He doesn't.

 

If you want to fix the cap system for the 2nd tier players, you have to go back to the owners and ask them to give up more revenue.

Why should a player that fills the seats have to take less to pay the support players?  It's not his problem.  Players do take hometown discounts in their 3rd contract, to stay where they are, but you have to give them security then, like a NMC or NTC.  That created problems when Iggy was at the end of his stay.  

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Tell that to the other major league sports.  Bautista makes 14m a year.  What do pro soccer players make?  NBA stars like Lebron made 23m.  Since the salaries are tied to revenue, the top players will make the top money.  Why should Kane make the same as Troy Brouwer?  He doesn't.

 

If you want to fix the cap system for the 2nd tier players, you have to go back to the owners and ask them to give up more revenue.

Why should a player that fills the seats have to take less to pay the support players?  It's not his problem.  Players do take hometown discounts in their 3rd contract, to stay where they are, but you have to give them security then, like a NMC or NTC.  That created problems when Iggy was at the end of his stay.  

When our revenues are that of MLB then Im sure we'll have a $178 Million Salary cap as well--

 

And im not saying they should restrict the Kane's and Brouwers, those players are on their 3rd or later contracts.

It's the 2nd contracts that have become the new enemy.. 2 years from now , McDavid will likely get a 10 Million contract , why should he get the same as Kane?  he shouldn't., unless he's led them to a cup or 2 by then 

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It should be noted that Brodie and Hamilton for example are on "mid-tier" level contracts but we should be fine with that because they are young and have potential to elevate their game to an elite level while still being paid mid-tier. We should be okay with a team full of young budding stars making mid-tier money who can play like stars.  What we shouldn't be okay with are veterans, 30-years and at their peak, making mid-tier money with no potential to elevate their game into star status.  There should really be no room for Wideman, Engellend, Stajan, etc who, don't get me wrong, are good players in their own right but just don't fit into the cap world for teams serious about making a run for the Cup.

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When our revenues are that of MLB then Im sure we'll have a $178 Million Salary cap as well--

 

And im not saying they should restrict the Kane's and Brouwers, those players are on their 3rd or later contracts.

It's the 2nd contracts that have become the new enemy.. 2 years from now , McDavid will likely get a 10 Million contract , why should he get the same as Kane?  he shouldn't., unless he's led them to a cup or 2 by then 

 

In the current CBA, you can only sign your own players to 8 years, while you used to be able to go longer.  The advantage of the longer term is buying up years of UFA.  Do you want to be in a situation where your top players will end their 2nd contract and go into UFA status?  Underpay them and they won't re-sign with you and take the UFA market route instead.  

 

Tampa signed Stamkos to 5 years.  They have to overpay just to keep him because of that.  They could have opted to buy more years.  McDavid will get whatever.  If he earns the big bucks, he will get 8 years at whatever.  Even for a bum team, he sells.  What that translates to in salary is anybody's guess.  

 

Let's be realistic here.  If Kane was on his 2nd contract today, he would get paid.  The problem is that the cap isn't keeping up with player salaries.  Bouma going to arbitration was potentially a one or two year deal at $2m+. Overpaying for that level of player is harder on the cap than paying a star.  Engelland getting $2.9m.  Wideman getting $5.25m.  Stajan getting $3.1m.  Raymond getting $3.2m.  Smid getting $3.6m.  There are your problem areas; paying too much for depth.  

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I don't think you can compare leagues because the other leagues generate more money. For the longest time in basketball, players got paid for what they did, and that came in endorsement deals. Jordan only made about $3M/year, but over $100M in endorsements.

I would still like to put a price on performance bonuses. Every player gets a base salary, but then that's difficult to judge and back in the day MLB pitchers would be sat in order to not get their bonuses...

Tough to call.

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