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cccsberg

So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

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They flashed an NHL stat during yesterday's game.  The Flames lead the NHL in missed shots with a total of something like 1043 missed shots.  The next closest team was in the mid-900s.

 

First thing that I wondered was does Sean Monahan account for 500 of those?  The chances he gets, the wide open clean looks from the slot, etc, he could be a 50-goal scorer if he had better aim.  

 

But anyways, a thousand missed shots.  If even 10% of those hit then that's an extra 100 shots on goal and if 10% of that goes in, then that's 10 extra goals this season which could translate into 5 extra points in the standings.

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1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

I wouldn't say the chemistry is overblown because they are undeniably good together which is why I think you could almost put anyone with them and have a good line. The question I ask is where could Tkachuk do the most damage and top line RW is my answer. I know the skating issue will come up but I would at least like to see this attempted. This frees up Ferland to play LW with Jankowski and then let the competition for 3rd line RW begin.

 

Overblown in the sense that it has become blasphemy to even consider splitting them.

 

They are good together but they were also good before they got put together too and really they are both just really good/solid hockey players. Not like they are unproven a part from one another. 

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6 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Overblown in the sense that it has become blasphemy to even consider splitting them.

 

They are good together but they were also good before they got put together too and really they are both just really good/solid hockey players. Not like they are unproven a part from one another. 

I hear you on this one. I also understand the desire to stay with some continuity at least pairs for the forward lines. I just hope GG has some willingness to try a few different combinations. He seems to be doing just that of late here. I really do think a line of Bennett, Backlund and Frolik would be solid both D and O for us. I like what I am seeing out of Bennett right now, his compete level has improved a lot.

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35 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

They flashed an NHL stat during yesterday's game.  The Flames lead the NHL in missed shots with a total of something like 1043 missed shots.  The next closest team was in the mid-900s.

 

First thing that I wondered was does Sean Monahan account for 500 of those?  The chances he gets, the wide open clean looks from the slot, etc, he could be a 50-goal scorer if he had better aim.  

 

But anyways, a thousand missed shots.  If even 10% of those hit then that's an extra 100 shots on goal and if 10% of that goes in, then that's 10 extra goals this season which could translate into 5 extra points in the standings.

Thus explains where we are this season along with to many mistakes.

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I think perhaps we've cut off our nose to spite our face, as they say.

From the moment we traded down in the 2012 draft, we just seem to be making mistakes at the draft table.

Trading down to get a 2nd, and taking Sieloff, wow. I saw him prolly 6 times with the Spits the following year and thought I should apply for the job in that region.

Vasilevsky was ranked 23rd, I believe, and had a spectacular draft year. We needed solutions in net. Now he's a Vezina candidate.

Not so much on our scouts overall, but kind of. High picks traded away too much. All due to the win now mentality.

When I look at the Jets, I thought they would be this good even last year. Had a down season, didn't panic.

The Ducks and Nashville have done a fantastic job from within.

We're stuck in HAVING to go to FA because we spend high picks like free candy.

Hamilton, Elliott, Hamonic. I get that those are things you thought best, but it cost 7 picks in 2 rounds.

Now NYI have 2 shots in the lottery? They had plenty of reason to beat us last night, namely, the idiotic lottery.

What I see is compounding errors in judgment. Now we're at a point where I don't even see what a possible solution might be.

Few high round picks, not much bonafide talent in the A.

A few years back, we should have just been honest with ourselves and told the fan base we have a lot more building to do and not pretend each acquisition is an answer.

None have been.

We desperately need BB and BT to understand the importance of drafting, not throwing it all away to make a splash.

That's today's NHL, stop living in yesterdays.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I think perhaps we've cut off our nose to spite our face, as they say.

From the moment we traded down in the 2012 draft, we just seem to be making mistakes at the draft table.

Trading down to get a 2nd, and taking Sieloff, wow. I saw him prolly 6 times with the Spits the following year and thought I should apply for the job in that region.

Vasilevsky was ranked 23rd, I believe, and had a spectacular draft year. We needed solutions in net. Now he's a Vezina candidate.

Not so much on our scouts overall, but kind of. High picks traded away too much. All due to the win now mentality.

When I look at the Jets, I thought they would be this good even last year. Had a down season, didn't panic.

The Ducks and Nashville have done a fantastic job from within.

We're stuck in HAVING to go to FA because we spend high picks like free candy.

Hamilton, Elliott, Hamonic. I get that those are things you thought best, but it cost 7 picks in 2 rounds.

Now NYI have 2 shots in the lottery? They had plenty of reason to beat us last night, namely, the idiotic lottery.

What I see is compounding errors in judgment. Now we're at a point where I don't even see what a possible solution might be.

Few high round picks, not much bonafide talent in the A.

A few years back, we should have just been honest with ourselves and told the fan base we have a lot more building to do and not pretend each acquisition is an answer.

None have been.

We desperately need BB and BT to understand the importance of drafting, not throwing it all away to make a splash.

That's today's NHL, stop living in yesterdays.

 

 

 

Unfortunately right now the Flames are paying some poor drafting and trading too many picks from 2010-2014.  The lack of depth comes from so many misses and the fact that during a rebuild the Flames still traded a 2nd for Cammy, a 2nd for Butler/Byron, a 4th for TJ Galliardi, 3rd for Brandon Bolig, Took Seiloff, Wothersppon, McDonald and Hunter smith (Althought that draft is looking VERY Shallow).

 

Rebuilds are hard enough but Flames made it tougher with some really poor decisions and a really poor transition from Sutter to Feaster

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21 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Unfortunately right now the Flames are paying some poor drafting and trading too many picks from 2010-2014.  The lack of depth comes from so many misses and the fact that during a rebuild the Flames still traded a 2nd for Cammy, a 2nd for Butler/Byron, a 4th for TJ Galliardi, 3rd for Brandon Bolig, Took Seiloff, Wothersppon, McDonald and Hunter smith (Althought that draft is looking VERY Shallow).

 

Rebuilds are hard enough but Flames made it tougher with some really poor decisions and a really poor transition from Sutter to Feaster

What are your thoughts on this Phillips kid ? can he make it with his size or is he another Jr wonderkid ?

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26 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

What are your thoughts on this Phillips kid ? can he make it with his size or is he another Jr wonderkid ?

 

I don't see what I saw in Gaudreau no. I had a lot of doubts about Gaudreau, but the one thing you were always impressed with was his ability to pivot and shift with the puck. He's one of the quickest short areas skaters I've ever seen and his ability to do that while hang on to the puck is special. I've never seen the same in Phillips.

 

that being said the game has come to point where you can no longer bet against small players just because they are small. I have my doubt about Phillips but there is enough there to let him prove you wrong. 

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21 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Unfortunately right now the Flames are paying some poor drafting and trading too many picks from 2010-2014.  The lack of depth comes from so many misses and the fact that during a rebuild the Flames still traded a 2nd for Cammy, a 2nd for Butler/Byron, a 4th for TJ Galliardi, 3rd for Brandon Bolig, Took Seiloff, Wothersppon, McDonald and Hunter smith (Althought that draft is looking VERY Shallow).

 

Rebuilds are hard enough but Flames made it tougher with some really poor decisions and a really poor transition from Sutter to Feaster

That is the main reason I am reluctant to suggest major changes to our management team. The management styles of Sutter, Feaster, and Treliving were very disruptive.

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3 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

That is the main reason I am reluctant to suggest major changes to our management team. The management styles of Sutter, Feaster, and Treliving were very disruptive.

 

I think it's something people don't realize enough, changing a GM is a huge disruption to a franchise. You lose at least 2-3 seasons IMO just due to the difference in philosophy and it's biggest in the draft room which is the worst because you won't feel that for 3-5 years. 

 

You need to be 100% convinced a GM is done if you want to move on. Even if you are 50/50 you should keep him because the consequences aren't worth it. 

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Just now, cross16 said:

 

I think it's something people don't realize enough, changing a GM is a huge disruption to a franchise. You lose at least 2-3 seasons IMO just due to the difference in philosophy and it's biggest in the draft room which is the worst because you won't feel that for 3-5 years. 

 

You need to be 100% convinced a GM is done if you want to move on. Even if you are 50/50 you should keep him because the consequences aren't worth it. 

Treliving has made some good moves and a few weak ones. I think that I am 70/30 (in favour) of him being a good GM. If we make another change in GM, we may well suffer the consequences for years. 

 

I am not sure that hiring GG was a good move. It is difficult for a rookie coach to get the respect of his team. Until we accomplish something significant, he is likely going to struggle with trying to get respect even from a young team. Hartley didn't have that problem given his history. GG cannot be particularly tough on the team because that is his only way to get them to buy in. Maybe the team should have a serious meeting with GG, Trevliving, and Burke to explain the importance of playing hard or being sent to Stockton.

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12 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

Treliving has made some good moves and a few weak ones. I think that I am 70/30 (in favour) of him being a good GM. If we make another change in GM, we may well suffer the consequences for years. 

 

I am not sure that hiring GG was a good move. It is difficult for a rookie coach to get the respect of his team. Until we accomplish something significant, he is likely going to struggle with trying to get respect even from a young team. Hartley didn't have that problem given his history. GG cannot be particularly tough on the team because that is his only way to get them to buy in. Maybe the team should have a serious meeting with GG, Trevliving, and Burke to explain the importance of playing hard or being sent to Stockton.

This is the very reason I think you leave this together for another season. They did choose a young coach and they chose him for a reason which would be IMO to grow with this group. I also think many are mistaking GG's stubbornness with his attempt to instill discipline amongst his players to be true to the systems and style he wants played. This is what BT and BB hired him to do so they may stick with him. Are we seeing players that haven't bought in or are we seeing players not disciplined enough yet to carry out and execute ? This situation will create all kinds of inconsistencies as well. I asked this in another thread, who do you see out there NOT playing hard enough ?

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2 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

I don't see what I saw in Gaudreau no. I had a lot of doubts about Gaudreau, but the one thing you were always impressed with was his ability to pivot and shift with the puck. He's one of the quickest short areas skaters I've ever seen and his ability to do that while hang on to the puck is special. I've never seen the same in Phillips.

 

that being said the game has come to point where you can no longer bet against small players just because they are small. I have my doubt about Phillips but there is enough there to let him prove you wrong. 

 

I'm on the fence about Phillips.  He's one of those guys that seems to know where to go before the puck gets there.  I just don't know how anyone his size will do.  He's tiny compared to JH.  He needs to escape hit even more than JH.  But he goes to the dirty areas, so that is more difficult.  Stats-wise, he's the same player as Yamamoto.  I would have to see them play in the same game to better compare.  Either way, these small players have a huge adjustment to the pro game.

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As I was semi-sleeping the other night it occurred to me that one of the genius coaching moves from BH was breaking the season down into 7-game segments.  Not only did he clearly demonstrate a path to playoffs, he also focussed the team on short series that are exactly what the playoffs are all about.  In so doing he also built a team focussed on winning these series versus having big seasonal swings of ups and downs.  If we remember correctly, I recall the Flames were extremely successful the game after a loss and never had any significant losing streaks all year.  It fits that series mentality and provided a level-headed approach to a very long and difficult season.

 

The other thing I was recalling is what I consider the fundamental difference between this team and that was how we generated offence.  With BH we had a fast-break attack, generating a LOT off of the rush and the chaos resulting before the other team could set up.  That a fit the team to a T and was very successful.  Surely, teams like Anaheim eventually clued in and clogged up the  middle to stop the stretch pass and kept a D back defensively, but overall it was successful..  With GG its regroup and move forward en masse, set up and keep probing from the outside looking for a weakness.  Unfortunately the opposition generally has time to set-up and a lot of play is from the perimeter, and although we generate a lot of Corsi events I don't think the chances were anywhere near as dangerous.  Ultimately several players had career or near-career years so it did have its results but I can't help but think overall we either don't have the right guys for that offence or the necessary skill level isn't there for in-close give and go type plays.  

 

Since we aren't likely to find a monster skilled guy in Free Agency or via trade I'd suggest we need to move back to more speed and chaos with heavy forechecking pressure to be successful.  

 

As an aside, I'd be interested to know if anyone has looked back over every game summary and plotted out real versus "Corsi" wins as a follow-up on that discussion?  Something I may look at later, but I'm thinking even though we have made major improvements on Corsi and related Scoring Chance numbers they really have not resulted in actual wins and we need to seriously re-look at the whole "possession team" thing.... Yeah, I know, we're so "unlucky".....right.  I guess in another week or so we'll see BT's initial post-season response/firings? and go from there.

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13 minutes ago, cccsberg said:

As I was semi-sleeping the other night it occurred to me that one of the genius coaching moves from BH was breaking the season down into 7-game segments.  Not only did he clearly demonstrate a path to playoffs, he also focussed the team on short series that are exactly what the playoffs are all about.  In so doing he also built a team focussed on winning these series versus having big seasonal swings of ups and downs.  If we remember correctly, I recall the Flames were extremely successful the game after a loss and never had any significant losing streaks all year.  It fits that series mentality and provided a level-headed approach to a very long and difficult season.

 

The other thing I was recalling is what I consider the fundamental difference between this team and that was how we generated offence.  With BH we had a fast-break attack, generating a LOT off of the rush and the chaos resulting before the other team could set up.  That a fit the team to a T and was very successful.  Surely, teams like Anaheim eventually clued in and clogged up the  middle to stop the stretch pass and kept a D back defensively, but overall it was successful..  With GG its regroup and move forward en masse, set up and keep probing from the outside looking for a weakness.  Unfortunately the opposition generally has time to set-up and a lot of play is from the perimeter, and although we generate a lot of Corsi events I don't think the chances were anywhere near as dangerous.  Ultimately several players had career or near-career years so it did have its results but I can't help but think overall we either don't have the right guys for that offence or the necessary skill level isn't there for in-close give and go type plays.  

 

Since we aren't likely to find a monster skilled guy in Free Agency or via trade I'd suggest we need to move back to more speed and chaos with heavy forechecking pressure to be successful.  

 

As an aside, I'd be interested to know if anyone has looked back over every game summary and plotted out real versus "Corsi" wins as a follow-up on that discussion?  Something I may look at later, but I'm thinking even though we have made major improvements on Corsi and related Scoring Chance numbers they really have not resulted in actual wins and we need to seriously re-look at the whole "possession team" thing.... Yeah, I know, we're so "unlucky".....right.  I guess in another week or so we'll see BT's initial post-season response/firings? and go from there.

Slight correction

http://www.timescolonist.com/flames-prepare-for-pivotal-california-swing-before-all-star-break-1.1728452

35da304731bcabd2cef9566b5d538493.png

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1 minute ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Slight correction

35da304731bcabd2cef9566b5d538493.png

No, if its 5 game segments then 8pts/5-game segment=80% of total points, which no team is achieving.  8/14 pts per 7-game segment =mid to low-90's pts total and likely playoffs. The 7-game segments went the whole season except the final 5 games which was the last segment.

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8 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Slight correction

35da304731bcabd2cef9566b5d538493.png

 

 

I am quoting you, but replying to CCC as well. 

 

7 games work, but may get old. Are we a young enough team still that requires that?

 

personally, if we went 7 game segments, I’d start over after every 4 games in a segment won. So if it took us 5 to win 4, start over. It’s how it works in the playoffs. Then we can count how many series we were in. Some may take the full 7 games. Plus, if you win 4 early, it means you can take your foot off the gas and take a night off.

 

We have to teach the players that hate to lose attitude. 

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43 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

 

I am quoting you, but replying to CCC as well. 

 

7 games work, but may get old. Are we a young enough team still that requires that?

 

personally, if we went 7 game segments, I’d start over after every 4 games in a segment won. So if it took us 5 to win 4, start over. It’s how it works in the playoffs. Then we can count how many series we were in. Some may take the full 7 games. Plus, if you win 4 early, it means you can take your foot off the gas and take a night off.

 

We have to teach the players that hate to lose attitude. 

Bigest thing needed.

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A hate to lose attitude can be "taught" to more players on a team by influence...   and it can become contagious...

 

But it takes a certain kind of player(s) for this to happen...   and all successful teams have that component...

 

I'll put it like this...   Tkachuk is injured and out of the lineup, and the teams drive to win went to Satoshi Nakamoto...   Missing his tenacity and the style he plays the game tore a huge chunk out of the heart of the team...

 

It takes more than skill alone...   

 

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15 minutes ago, Carty said:

A hate to lose attitude can be "taught" to more players on a team by influence...   and it can become contagious...

 

But it takes a certain kind of player(s) for this to happen...   and all successful teams have that component...

 

I'll put it like this...   Tkachuk is injured and out of the lineup, and the teams drive to win went to Satoshi Nakamoto...   Missing his tenacity and the style he plays the game tore a huge chunk out of the heart of the team...

 

It takes more than skill alone...   

 

You are absolutely right that it takes more than skill alone and you are never going have 25 Tkachuks on your team. I will disagree with the "taught" part of your statement but do agree everyone likes winning and once it starts others are quick to follow. (contagious)

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2 hours ago, MAC331 said:

You are absolutely right that it takes more than skill alone and you are never going have 25 Tkachuks on your team. I will disagree with the "taught" part of your statement but do agree everyone likes winning and once it starts others are quick to follow. (contagious)

 

If you look at what is in question (in blue) in a little different way, you actually give the answer right afterwards (in red) if you think about it...

 

The attitude of "hating to lose" can't be taught with just words, or on a board...   It needs to be "taught" by example on the ice...   and that, is part of true leadership...

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11 minutes ago, Carty said:

 

If you look at what is in question (in blue) in a little different way, you actually give the answer right afterwards (in red) if you think about it...

 

The attitude of "hating to lose" can't be taught with just words, or on a board...   It needs to be "taught" by example on the ice...   and that, is part of true leadership...

OK some people/players are more intense than others when it comes to winning or losing. Leaders will emerge.

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So while we're waiting patiently for BP&BT to finalize their assistant coaches on the Flames' front, and the VGN to throttle the Caps on the NHL front, wasn't it interesting how Vegas and the refs handled the Wilson late hit in last night's game?  Is there something to learn here to be applied to the Flames?

 

To start, let's just say the hit WAS late, but otherwise fine, and ultimately the refs handled it ok.  However, the details are very interesting.  Apparently the refs didn't see the hit, as their lengthy huddle did not lead to a Wilson penalty, but rather they gave equivalent penalties to Wilson and Perron.  Unfortunately, Perron entered the ice after the hit, with Marchessault still on the ice, meaning it should have been a "Too Many Men" penalty, plus an Automatic 10-game suspension to Perron for coming off the bench and entering a fray.  Is this not correct?  Plus, the Perron scrap was with Ovechkin... what?  The end result concocted by the refs cooled things down appreciably which was fine, and they were able to do a "make-up" non-call later in the third period when Reaves made a clearcut cross-check to Carlson right in the slot and feet in front of the ref, milli-seconds before Reaves picked up a rebound and roofed it for the eventual winning goal.  So, all in all, justice was served, Marchessault is OK and Vegas got their revenge with a victory, aided by the sympathetic refs.

 

Now, think about standard events after such a hit.  Wouldn't the Flames, and fans be going right after the Caps trying to fight and even things out?  Probably so.  But really don't you have to admire the Knights for their composure and getting even by scoring, as well as realizing and utilizing the sympathy/embarrassment of the refs to their own benefit?  I'm thinking perhaps the flames need to do something, perhaps like the Jets did last season, in conjunction with the refs to help develop/re-establish a good rapport between them and the refs?  Also, a focus on getting even thru the scoreboard would be way better than goofing it up.  How will Bill Peters handle these things, and will the Flames need an enforcer?  

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14 minutes ago, cccsberg said:

So while we're waiting patiently for BP&BT to finalize their assistant coaches on the Flames' front, and the VGN to throttle the Caps on the NHL front, wasn't it interesting how Vegas and the refs handled the Wilson late hit in last night's game?  Is there something to learn here to be applied to the Flames?

 

To start, let's just say the hit WAS late, but otherwise fine, and ultimately the refs handled it ok.  However, the details are very interesting.  Apparently the refs didn't see the hit, as their lengthy huddle did not lead to a Wilson penalty, but rather they gave equivalent penalties to Wilson and Perron.  Unfortunately, Perron entered the ice after the hit, with Marchessault still on the ice, meaning it should have been a "Too Many Men" penalty, plus an Automatic 10-game suspension to Perron for coming off the bench and entering a fray.  Is this not correct?  Plus, the Perron scrap was with Ovechkin... what?  The end result concocted by the refs cooled things down appreciably which was fine, and they were able to do a "make-up" non-call later in the third period when Reaves made a clearcut cross-check to Carlson right in the slot and feet in front of the ref, milli-seconds before Reaves picked up a rebound and roofed it for the eventual winning goal.  So, all in all, justice was served, Marchessault is OK and Vegas got their revenge with a victory, aided by the sympathetic refs.

 

Now, think about standard events after such a hit.  Wouldn't the Flames, and fans be going right after the Caps trying to fight and even things out?  Probably so.  But really don't you have to admire the Knights for their composure and getting even by scoring, as well as realizing and utilizing the sympathy/embarrassment of the refs to their own benefit?  I'm thinking perhaps the flames need to do something, perhaps like the Jets did last season, in conjunction with the refs to help develop/re-establish a good rapport between them and the refs?  Also, a focus on getting even thru the scoreboard would be way better than goofing it up.  How will Bill Peters handle these things, and will the Flames need an enforcer?  

 

The refs didn't make a call on Wilson, but called a scrum between the two players after the fact.

Strange that Trotts didn't notice Perron wasn't on the ice, but Ovi did.  Or perhaps they ignored the pleas.

A late hit was missed.  Fine, that happens all the time.

Make-up non-call is more disturbing if that was the reason for it.  It was a scoring play.

 

Reaves wasn't on the ice and Wilson was penalized, so there wasn't an immediate response.

Had the two been out there at the same time, it would have happened.

Gerrard was perhaps justified in telling Reaves to cool it and not start up with Wilson later on.

 

Regular season and playoffs are so differently enforced that you can't judge the state of officiating on this series.

Every year is different.  Things don't normally carry over.  

I do think that guys like Johnny need to stop whining about missed calls and push back himself or ask someone to do it for him.

Let people know that if you hack my hands I will hack your calfs.  Or my buddy will put you into the boards or perhaps one of your stars.

 

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