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Pyromancer

2018-19 Playoff Wild Card Projection

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1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

Flames in 5.

 

59 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I agree.  Who cares about the AVS.  We are a much better team.

 

I think we win in 6.

I predict:

 

Lose one, win 3, lose one, win 1.

Win 1, Lose 1, win 2, lose 1, win 1.

Lose 1, win 2, lose 1, win 2.

Lose1, win 1, lose 1, win 3. 

 

4-2 vs Avs

4-2 vs Vegas

4-2 Vs Blues

4-2 Vs Bruins

 

 

 

 

 

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The one thing I hope is that we continue the years trend of bouncing back. We lose then go on a streak. We haven’t gone on a lot of long losing streaks. But we lose a game or two then win 2-4 games.

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Imagine being BOS, you have to go through,

 

#6 TOR, #1 TBL, #4 WSH, #2 CGY

 

BOS might even finish second overall.

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10 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

Imagine being BOS, you have to go through,

 

#6 TOR, #1 TBL, #4 WSH, #2 CGY

 

BOS might even finish second overall.

It's kinda one of those things. I don't even care who we start with. There's so much parity that thinking any matchup will be easier is foolhardy. imho

There aren't any free rides in the playoffs.

Like Kipper14 was saying, the AVs have had to play playoff hockey just to get in. Ditto the Canes and CBJ.

There's no such thing as easy match-ups. Anything can happen.

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Wow, poor CBJ, taking it to the Rangers after one but Georgiev keeping it at zeroes. Couple 10 bellers.

He's up to not allowing a goal in about his last 85 shots now. Shots were about 15-6 Columbus.

2 pts for Columbus will eliminate MTL.

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Tortorella vs TB would be an interesting storyline.  I just don't think CLB is fast enough to handle TB.  CAR had a better chance.  

 

Only way CLB wins is if they can play dirty but that's not Torts style.  

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1 hour ago, CheersMan said:

I see the Stars are diving for the Flames.

I’d imagine the avs will do the same...they’d prefer us over Wpg/Nsh

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20 minutes ago, rickross said:

I’d imagine the avs will do the same...they’d prefer us over Wpg/Nsh

I don't know about that, they have had more success against those teams than us.  The only thing difference is we've only played Varly this year.  I'd be more worried about St Loo tbh.

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1 hour ago, rickross said:

I’d imagine the avs will do the same...they’d prefer us over Wpg/Nsh

Why would either of those teams rather play the 2nd overall?  Avs are 0-3 against the Flames, 2-2 vs the Preds and  3-2 vs the Jets.    The stars are 3-0 vs the Flames, 2-3 vs the Preds, and 3-1 vs the Jets. (Ok the Stars one makes sense)

                                                       

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18 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

Why would either of those teams rather play the 2nd overall?  Avs are 0-3 against the Flames, 2-2 vs the Preds and  3-2 vs the Jets.    The stars are 3-0 vs the Flames, 2-3 vs the Preds, and 3-1 vs the Jets. (Ok the Stars one makes sense)

                                                       

Playoff hockey. Yes they had better success against those other teams but the Jets/Preds/Blues are better built for the crash and bang of the playoffs. 7 games series are different too, what happened in the regular season no longer matters. Avs would wear down physically quicker in those matchups, it’s more skill/speed series vs the Flames which is more their style of game imo

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1 hour ago, sak22 said:

I don't know about that, they have had more success against those teams than us.  The only thing difference is we've only played Varly this year.  I'd be more worried about St Loo tbh.

Get what your saying but I don’t believe the regular season applies come playoff time. It’s a different animal, success against a team in the regular season doesn’t guarantee success in the post season. 

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EDM can do noth to worsen their standings today.

They can be passed by NYR.

How sad is it that they can't even place higher than the Ducks or Nucks?

Even FLA and PHI placed higher.

 

Time to crater their hopes for Drai getting 50.

What a joke of a team.

Two 100+ point players and they can't even hit 80 points.

Less than 50% win ratio, even with the Bettman Loser points.

 

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The Eastern Conference

 

Final 2018-19

d38fe010e5acd2ec48e143c5841a7e17.png12183

 

US Thanksgiving

5a6663d1cb56fe2c7a917a2c4a10ee00.png

 

The US Thanksgiving theory about teams that are in a playoff spot likely making the playoffs at the season end has a weak correlation.

5 of 8 made the show with NYR, BUF, and MTL failing..

I would think to be statistically significant at least 7 would need to make the cut.

The WC cutoff estimate of 97 pts at US Thanksgiving ended up fairly accurate with the the end of the 2018-19 season cutoff at 98 pts.

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The Western Conference

 

Final 2018-19

38acc38a88e627e6acf3490d081c570c.png

 

US Thanksgiving

07c5f24c684d534b5408952af0d5e16a.png

 

The US Thanksgiving theory is slightly stronger in the West with 6 of 8 teams masking the post-season with ANA & MIN missing out.

As stated in the previous post, I think even 6 of 8 isn't a strong statistical correlation for the US Thanksgiving theory.

The WC cutoff estimate of 89 pts at US Thanksgiving ended up fairly accurate with the the end of the 2018-19 season cutoff at 90 pts.

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The Burn

 

5ae6c834796893c2162a82f80cab1870.png

74bc9a3517ef2282d4fea0b7664e8b53.png

2795c031a85c66432c1e933d65d1d4c9.png

 

The Habs get the shaft.

Perhaps the wildcards should be picked out of the 4 best teams of either conference remaining after the top 3 in each division are set.

 

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Pyromancer said:

The Burn

 

5ae6c834796893c2162a82f80cab1870.png

74bc9a3517ef2282d4fea0b7664e8b53.png

2795c031a85c66432c1e933d65d1d4c9.png

 

The Habs get the shaft.

Perhaps the wildcards should be picked out of the 4 best teams of either conference remaining after the top 3 in each division are set.

 

Thanks for doing these again this season Pyro!  

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Glass ½ Full or Glass ½ Empty

 

What would be the proper way to look at the wildcard cutoff in retrospect after the end of the regular season?

 

In the East, the seemingly accepted WC2 cutoff was the BJs with 98 pts with 45 ROW.

On the other hand, the BJ's could have played down to the next best record of the Habs at 96 pts with 41 ROW.

WC Cutoff 98 or 96 pts?

 

In the West, the WC2 cutoff was the Avalanche at 90 pts with 36 ROW.

The Avalanche could have also played down to the Coyotes at 86 pts with 33 ROW.

WC Cutoff 90 pts or 86 pts?

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18 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

Thanks for doing these again this season Pyro!  

Thanks Peeps :)

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9 hours ago, Pyromancer said:

Glass ½ Full or Glass ½ Empty

 

What would be the proper way to look at the wildcard cutoff in retrospect after the end of the regular season?

 

In the East, the seemingly accepted WC2 cutoff was the BJs with 98 pts with 45 ROW.

On the other hand, the BJ's could have played down to the next best record of the Habs at 96 pts with 41 ROW.

WC Cutoff 98 or 96 pts?

 

In the West, the WC2 cutoff was the Avalanche at 90 pts with 36 ROW.

The Avalanche could have also played down to the Coyotes at 86 pts with 33 ROW.

WC Cutoff 90 pts or 86 pts?

 

Yes, it's a bizarre world.

Maybe a bit better than the top 4 in each division, but we still would not play the Oilers this season.

If they did 1 vs 16, we would be playing Dallas and TBL playing VGK.

Toronto would face Nashville.

 

BTW, thanks for keeping us all up to date on the stats.

It gave us a better feel for how close or far the competition was away from us.

I think SJS and WPG looked and started freaking out.

How to limp into the playoffs.

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