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Pyromancer

2018-19 Playoff Wild Card Projection

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35 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

^^^^
Some observations:

STL has come from the brink to being a solid chance for the WC.  Is that level of play sustainable?  They don't need a great record to get in, but wow what a turnaround.

Battle in the West between MIN, COL, ARI, CHI, and DAL.  Only two will make it.  COL, CHI and ARI heating up.  Kane with 20 game scoring streak? Wow.

Oilers haven;t figured it out that they are done?  Nobody being traded?  Not even Poolparty?  Chaisson?  

Ducks are done, but always have you thinking they might get in.  Hope not.

VAN falling back to earth.  

The whole team seems to be playing alot better but I dont think Biddington (sp?) can carry them too far on his own.

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On 2019-01-20 at 6:36 AM, rocketdoctor said:

Wow 87 points still for a wild card.  Surely that's got to edge up to 94/95.

 

This makes such lovely reading this year.  Thanks Pyro for doing this each season.

87 pts!? Such low hanging fruit..actually that fruit is so low it’s now on the ground and rotting. What’s even crazier are just how many mediocre teams are struggling out West this year. Bit of a missed opportunity for playoff starved teams like the Coyotes and Avs. Oilers aren’t starved for playoffs...they’re allergic to them!

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22 minutes ago, rickross said:

87 pts!? Such low hanging fruit..actually that fruit is so low it’s now on the ground and rotting. What’s even crazier are just how many mediocre teams are struggling out West this year. Bit of a missed opportunity for playoff starved teams like the Coyotes and Avs. Oilers aren’t starved for playoffs...they’re allergic to them!

 

85 now.  Was 83.  May get to 87 again.

That is so low compared to other years.

Last year we had 84 points and were 20th in the league.

The year before we were 94 and tiied in points for WC spots.

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The low-hanging playoff fruit is progressively getting harder to reach.

Now 86 pts.

A Pacific WC looks less & less likely.....

 

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9 hours ago, Pyromancer said:

The low-hanging playoff fruit is progressively getting harder to reach.

Now 86 pts.

A Pacific WC looks less & less likely.....

 

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So many teams fates will be decided on those final 2 games of the year. What a difference it makes being at the top of the division..you don’t look at the standings the same that’s for sure. What a slow grind it’ll be for these WC teams in the west. It’ll make for a busy off season with so many mediocre teams battling it out this year. 

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34 minutes ago, rickross said:

So many teams fates will be decided on those final 2 games of the year. What a difference it makes being at the top of the division..you don’t look at the standings the same that’s for sure. What a slow grind it’ll be for these WC teams in the west. It’ll make for a busy off season with so many mediocre teams battling it out this year. 

 

The East is a tough slog.  PITTS lost 2 top D last night.  CAR s rolling, but can they bring it home.  MTL still in it.

In the West, Minny has given up.  They look like they are going to fall out quickly.  ARI, COL and CHI could overtake DAL and bump them out.

First round matchups in Central are tough.  WPG either plays 2nd WC or #3 in the division.  That could be a problem.

I hope that the Sharks and Knights meet in the 1st round.  Beat each other up.

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I would sooner play Col rather than Dallas first round. The Flames just seem to either play better or have better luck against the Avs. Plus if you just shut down their top line theyre hopeless. The big factor with Dallas is Bishop. When hes hot he can steal games or even a series from you.

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14 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I would sooner play Col rather than Dallas first round. The Flames just seem to either play better or have better luck against the Avs. Plus if you just shut down their top line theyre hopeless. The big factor with Dallas is Bishop. When hes hot he can steal games or even a series from you.

Dallas has owned us this year so I’d take the Avs at this point as well. I’d almost want the Flames to take on the toughest opponent in rd 1. It’ll set the pace and get them better prepared for rd 2 should they advance. 

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17 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

I would sooner play Col rather than Dallas first round. The Flames just seem to either play better or have better luck against the Avs. Plus if you just shut down their top line theyre hopeless. The big factor with Dallas is Bishop. When hes hot he can steal games or even a series from you.

 

Plus it seems hard to contain Benn. He scored almost every game against us..

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1 minute ago, robrob74 said:

 

Plus it seems hard to contain Benn. He scored almost every game against us..

 

Yes, and he's allowed to trip the goalie as long as the goalie has a split second to regain his footing.

Benn is a beast.

Not interested in being stuck playing them in round 1.

They will be fortunate to make the playoffs, but will not advance.

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Another team showing a lot of pink.

Detroit looks doomed as their max attainable pt total is 93. Even with running the table that likely won't cut it in the East.

 

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Even with the Oilers taking 5 of 6 points n their last 3 games, they still need to win at a rate better than 4/6 over the remainder of the season to possibly make a WC spot.

All of the Central Division, even CHI has as better chance of making it than the Oilers.

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With STL coming on strong, won't be long before they overtake the Central Division. Jets vs Preds first round, Ha Baby!:D

Chevy in Winnipeg sits on his hands for 10 yrs then he makes 6 trades at the TDL? Don't Panic Chevy.:lol:

What about the Jackets? If they miss the cut, oh boy. :blink:

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Well....look at that! :)

We are sitting at the projected West wildcard cutoff of 87 points.

Still 19 games left to enshrine ourselves as the West's regular season champions.

The team that hits the WC2 spot [our probable 1st round opponent] is still up in the air.

 

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I really appreciate the work you have done assembling this chart Pyro. It really gives a good sense of how things are progressing.

 

Does anyone have a link to, or the skills to make a chart for actual points to see when each team is officially mathematically eliminated? Just as an example, with 19 games remaining, Ottawa COULD still pick up 38 points, however unlikely, meaning they still have a shot at 87 points this season. LA COULD still hit 91 points. 

 

As it gets down to the more nitty gritty end, it's nice to see when teams are likely to clinch or be eliminated completely from the dance. I do not have the time or expertise to provide the regular updates, so if anyone has a link or could do it, that would be awesome.

 

Point differential for Ottawa to be out is currently 13 points. Carolina / Pittsburgh need to get or Ottawa to miss 13 points (6.5 games) to officially knock Ottawa out of Playoffs.  L.A. is at 24 points (12 games) with 19 to go.

 

Also, how long for the Flames to officially clinch a playoff spot. If we use Dallas as the measuring stick, Most possible points remaining at highest current point to still get playoffs, they could mathematically still hit 105. This means Flames have 18 points (9 games) differential to clinch a playoff spot with 19 games remaining and 31 points (15.5 games) to clinch both division and conference.

 

Tampa needs 25 points (12.5 games) to clinch the league, 21 points (10.5 games) to clinch their conference and division.

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We doomed the Devils to probable non-playoff purgatory by removing any possibility they could reach the current East WC cutoff at 96 pts. [94 pts max]

 

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7 hours ago, Pyromancer said:

We doomed the Devils to probable non-playoff purgatory by removing any possibility they could reach the current East WC cutoff at 96 pts. [94 pts max]

 

A moment of silence for the Devils...……..

Next!

A mere 18pts in our final 18 games should seal 1st in the West for us.

Home ice looks to be a lock.

I expect we will finish better though.

Line em up, knock em down. 

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Slow night. 2 whole games.

Oil still have their faint-hope clause activated & their parade route is still provisional. :lol:

Starting to think about where I might want to set up my lawn chair in downtown Cow! B)

 

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