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Jakob Pelletier - 2019 1st round pick

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6 minutes ago, robrob74 said:


 

I see that. I just feel that there are other teams with different philosophies, like the Blues, who draft a certain way, Or the Jets. Philly has a strategy as well. Some teams have varying success to drafting bigger. 
 

I don’t agree with Hathaway. If he was as replaceable as you claim, the Flames would’ve done it this year. They replaced him with Reider. I’d have preferred Hathaway. I don’t mind if they drafted players like him either, but also happy if they find him in free agency. 
 

don’t get me wrong, I hope Pelletier becomes a top 6 player and fills out like a bulky, speedy low Center of gravity player who ends up like Theo or Gallagher. I think Theo would be my all time favourite player so small isn’t something I think can deter a players ability. My problem is when the roster is made up of a lot of smaller players. Dichotomy much?

 

Hathaway was getting a raise here or elsewhere.

He'll be around 32 by the time this deal expires.

You can't pay that much for grit when you also have Lucic and Bennett and Tkachuk. 

 

Every team has it's own set of standards for drafting players.

The scouts make the case for the BPA's.

Often you miss out on the guy you want by a single spot.

I haven't seen that may gems that we missed out on.

We picked Valimaki over Thomas, who may be more than a 3rd liner.

Missed out in the McDavid year on Aho, but got Ras.

 

How a team drafts is often a reflection on the team.

Slower, grinding teams prefer grinding forwards.

Fast teams prefer skilled, smaller ones.

 

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The interesting thing is if you are putting the Blues up as the template to follow you are proving BrewCrew's point. The Blues don't really draft for size (especially when you take out Petrangelo at 4th overall) and most of the players on their team that they've drafted are more skilled than sized. They went to the free agent market or trades to get players like Sundqvist, Thornburn and Schenn to make their team tough.  If you look at their drafts you won't find a fixation on size. Obviously them finding Paryenko helps too and thta was a great pick, but it's not like the Flames haven't tired to find guys like that either. 

 

I'm with Brewcrew, the flames don't focus on smaller players they focus on skilled players but the problem being when you are drafting high in the draft it's harder to find players who are both big and skilled. They've rolled the dice on guys like Ruzicka, Posposil, trying to get the combination but it isn't easy. 

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17 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

There are exceptions of course.

Mangiapane was kept to low minutes last year and was super efficient at scoring.

He earned his way onto the 2nd line this year.

Dube is sort of following that mold.

 

While the Flames model may not be great for some of the players we have brought in, I think you have to ask yourself how much of it is the players themselves.  Little guys like Gaudreau, Mangiapane and Dube have always been playing in the shadow of big kids.  They have that competetive drive to be the best player on the ice.  Huge chip.  That is my belief why Gaudreau and Mangiapane have become good to great players,  They had to skate faster, deke better and shoot more accurate to make up for the lack of relative strength.

 

Bigger guys like say Lavoie have been the biggest kids on the team.  They have not had to train as hard or learn the finer skills to get ahead.  When they get to the pro leagues, that means more than just a hard shot or being big.  When I look at the failed prospects, I see an alarming trend.  As soon as they hit the AHL, they regress and never seem to gain any traction.  Most or all go on to nothing careers.  Klimchuk is a perfect example.

 

It's the reason why I have great respect for players like Phillips who are the size of a players kid brother.  They find a way.  Pelletier is cut from that cloth.  He may not pan out, but I suspect he will be something closer to Mangiapane than Nemisz.. It's also why I see great potential in Zavgorodny.  

 

I would agree, it's not black and white.  I'd also like to add that perhaps things improved in that regard under Ward (ie., Mangiapane).   I personally believe in Ward and I don't think he's ever gotten enough credit.   He's just gradually risen to the top because of...well..competence.

 

In terms of our development system, the more of these guys we have the better.  I don't care how big our development system is...if it's all skill, that's great.   Because I do believe the NHL, in general, undervalues smaller players and I support taking advantage of that in the draft.

 

The idea, however, that you can just make an entire team of these players.....is a bit of an issue.   It's just not doable, you do need to trade some off and the Flames have struggled there.

 

Here's the thing.  Mangiapane is a 6th round pick success story.    If Pelletier turns out like him, and I'm thinking that's near his upside....it is....harder.....to call that a success story in the first round.   I'm not going to call it a failure.   But there are loads of these talented guys in every round, so to take them in first they have to be Really special and I just didn't personally see it with Pelletier.  I'm happy to be proven wrong and I hope he does well.

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6 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I would agree, it's not black and white.  I'd also like to add that perhaps things improved in that regard under Ward (ie., Mangiapane).   I personally believe in Ward and I don't think he's ever gotten enough credit.   He's just gradually risen to the top because of...well..competence.

 

In terms of our development system, the more of these guys we have the better.  I don't care how big our development system is...if it's all skill, that's great.   Because I do believe the NHL, in general, undervalues smaller players and I support taking advantage of that in the draft.

 

The idea, however, that you can just make an entire team of these players.....is a bit of an issue.   It's just not doable, you do need to trade some off and the Flames have struggled there.

 

Here's the thing.  Mangiapane is a 6th round pick success story.    If Pelletier turns out like him, and I'm thinking that's near his upside....it is....harder.....to call that a success story in the first round.   I'm not going to call it a failure.   But there are loads of these talented guys in every round, so to take them in first they have to be Really special and I just didn't personally see it with Pelletier.  I'm happy to be proven wrong and I hope he does well.

 

Gaudreau vs Monahan.

Both are success stories.

Maybe Monahan is not a top C in the league, but he is good player.

 

Pelletier vs Mangiapane.

Hard to call a late 1st to be anything other than success if he reaches 2nd line in the NHL.

All the signs were there for Mangiapane to be that player if he could translate it to the NHL.

The same signs are there for Zavgorodny and Phillips.

 

The big difficulty is fitting them in a position to succeed.

 

I guess to be fair, you have to look at the 2019 draft on the whole.  Who among the top 31 players drafted do you see as being really special?  Maybe a small handful, none of which were even available when we were picking.  McMichael was about the best late round player available, but we will never know if he was going to get called.  Of those "special" players, do any of them have a higher potential than Pelletier?  Maybe a smaller list.

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On 7/2/2020 at 8:06 PM, jjgallow said:

 

You're more optimistic than me but sometimes that's not a bad thing lol

 

I've had a couple years more experience under my belt now so I feel like I've mellowed out a lot more with regards to player evaluation. A few years ago my ND lists were closer to real NHL lists in length, now I find I'm a lot more forgiving. Plus I'm a Flames homer, so doubly so for our guys!

 

Having seen a ton of kids now, we can pretend all we want about drafting but the reality is no one ever really knows. The guys who clearly have the talent and clearly have the drive will always go top 10, but the rest of the kids are a complete guess. Some of them figure it out and will pass guys who had shown their stuff earlier and were drafted high as a result, some never will. All we can do is throw a dart at something we like and hope for the best. We're all just hoping the kids we like are 60-40 success rates rather than 50-50, because so much of development comes down to opportunity, organization, etc. It's very very difficult to separate bad drafting and scouting versus bad luck and bad development, and a guy who would've succeeded in one spot can easily fail elsewhere and vice versa. There's never a black and white answer and the people that pretend there is are both wrong and full of ****.

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