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Thebrewcrew

2020 Calgary Flames NHL Draft

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7 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

I am not a huge fan of Zary or Mercer, neither have that high of a ceiling. I think they end up more as bottom 6 players than top 6.

Who do you like in the 15-20 range?

 

I think Mercer and Zary are guys the Flames would like, either rightly or wrongly, because neither from what I've seen and read have a ton of issues regarding motor and intensity. That seems to have been BT's mandate as of late. Last year they passed on Suzuki over Pelletier and I would argue Suzuki is more talented but Pelletier brings a more consistent effort.

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16 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Who do you like in the 15-20 range?

 

I think Mercer and Zary are guys the Flames would like, either rightly or wrongly, because neither from what I've seen and read have a ton of issues regarding motor and intensity. That seems to have been BT's mandate as of late. Last year they passed on Suzuki over Pelletier and I would argue Suzuki is more talented but Pelletier brings a more consistent effort.

 

Both of them are average skaters at best and they don't have a real dynamic quality. I would argue that Pelletier is more skilled and a better skater than either Zary or Mercer.

 

I would trade back myself, I think you can equal talent at 25 as you can at 15. I am a fan of Hendrix Lapierre and Justin Barron. If we stick where we are at I hope a guy like Dylan Holloway falls, Jarvis or Quinn would be ok as well.

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5 hours ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

Ok so that may work but why the rush when doing it after the league either cuts short or actually finishes is so much easier? factor in there will be some trades/deals that will hinge on what the new cap will be but that still needs to be worked out.

 

Another thing is, the Trade Deadline has technically passed for this season.  So there shouldn't be trades allowed anymore right?  The time to decide to "go for it" vs "tank for a higher pick" has passed.  Giving teams another chance to make trades to stack their roster for a playoff run feels wrong.

 

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1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

 

I don't think Schneider will be on the board when the Flames pick, as I think there's an argument to be made he could be the 2nd best D in the draft, and the fact he's a RHS, mobile D with good size will entice teams.

 

Are you saying teams reach for RHS while leaving teams who draft BPA with LHS LW/LD?

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1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Are you saying teams reach for RHS while leaving teams who draft BPA with LHS LW/LD?

Haha, yes

 

41 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

Both of them are average skaters at best and they don't have a real dynamic quality. I would argue that Pelletier is more skilled and a better skater than either Zary or Mercer.

 

I would trade back myself, I think you can equal talent at 25 as you can at 15. I am a fan of Hendrix Lapierre and Justin Barron. If we stick where we are at I hope a guy like Dylan Holloway falls, Jarvis or Quinn would be ok as well.

I like Quinn and Lapierre as well. Lapierre is risky with his history of head injury, I think he will end up going to a team like NYR that has multiple 1sts, little bit of insurance in case his injury problems continue. It feels like there's no way Quinn should be on the board at 16th, but last year Caufield slid , so it's very possible

 

I wouldn't mind a trade back, hopefully get a 2nd, or a 3rd and have a full compliment of picks for the first time in a while

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18 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Are you saying teams reach for RHS while leaving teams who draft BPA with LHS LW/LD?

 

So...the whole RHS vs LHS shot thing for BPA:

 

What is "Best Player".......maybe it's actually not the best wording in my mind, or at least how I think of it.

 

I think of "Most Valuable".   So...maybe I'm not a BPA evangelist after all haha.

 

If there's identical twins available with identical skills and talents and records and one is a LHS and one is a RHS,

 

The RHS will be the more valuable player and that is who you draft imho.

 

So:  Does position and handedness factor into it?  Yes, yes it does.   It's just not the Most important factor.    Drafting a position because your current roster has a need there is folly.    Factoring in that the entire NHL is weak in a particular position (such as RHS) imho is part of the calculation of "most valuable".

 

I haven't studied this year's draft well enough to have strong opinions yet.    But years with high-ranking goalies are interesting to me.    Goalie, imho, is the most valuable position in the game.   Even though we've recently seen a lot of parity there.   The next generational goalie will change that.    On the other hand, first round goalies have had a reputation for flopping.  I attribute this to rushing them, and also the fact that there is a very small sample size.   Many/most of the best goalies in the NHL were first-round goalies so when you look at it from that angle it is different.

 

Then there is the "rebuild" factor.  Sigh.   I contradict myself here slightly.   It takes into consideration your roster.  But, not your current roster.    If we took the leap of faith that we are llikely to rebuild in the next 3 years  (and oh...we ARE)....   a goalie does make sense because they take the longest to develop and are likely the most crucial piece to build around.

 

So Askarov, who some are calling the first "generational goalie" we've seen in a long time, peaks my interest.    And we know goalies can fall lower in the first round.

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31 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

So Askarov, who some are calling the first "generational goalie" we've seen in a long time, peaks my interest.    And we know goalies can fall lower in the first round.

 

I thought Spencer Knight was the best goalie we've seen in the last 10 years?  Never heard of Askarov but if he's elite, then we should target him. 

 

Generally speaking, I would not draft a goalie in the first round because they are late bloomers and semi-voodoo.  I would use the 2nd round pick to target a goalie.  Seems lots of NHL starting goalies were either 2nd or 3rd round picks.

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36 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

So:  Does position and handedness factor into it?  Yes, yes it does.   It's just not the Most important factor.    Drafting a position because your current roster has a need there is folly.    Factoring in that the entire NHL is weak in a particular position (such as RHS) imho is part of the calculation of "most valuable".

 

It's kind of like drafting LH pitchers in baseball.  If you don't draft and develop them yourself, boy it's freaking expensive to acquire one through trade and UFA.

 

And if you do have excess, man it's so easy to get value for them in a trade.  Teams lining up to get them.

 

In the NHL, that big RHS RD who can play top pair is probably the hottest commodity on the market.  And also RHS C who can play top 6 because faceoffs.

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2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

I thought Spencer Knight was the best goalie we've seen in the last 10 years?  Never heard of Askarov but if he's elite, then we should target him. 

 

Generally speaking, I would not draft a goalie in the first round because they are late bloomers and semi-voodoo.  I would use the 2nd round pick to target a goalie.  Seems lots of NHL starting goalies were either 2nd or 3rd round picks.

 

I hear your on those first rounders.  It's so true when they're 18.   But, my favourite thing...looking at cup-winners, does show that first-round goalies do get it done.  The next generational goalie does stand a very high chance of going in the first round, you have to take that big risk if you really want them.

 

So, Askarov versus Spencer Knight...this is my take on the scouts, I don't claim to know enough about the situation yet:

 

Askarov is conservatively a step above Spencer even at his most hyped point, and a step above really any goaltending prospect we've seen since Carey Price.   He's Slated to go top 10 but you never know with goalies.  Within the confines of Russia, for his age, there is no comparison.  There has historically never been a Russian goalie this good at his age.

 

Addressing the slight sarcasm/cynicism in your question:  Yes it's warranted.  Always.   But just like we should be cynical, we should also know as much about him as possible imho.

 

The difference between an Askarov and a Spencer, is that Spencer is ranked high because of his positioning, butterfly style, consistency.   These are all important things but they are "insurance" factors.   They offer a high probability that he will make it to the NHL.   They offer no kind of guarantee that he will be generational.

 

Askarov is ranked high purely out of skill, and his ability to seemingly play at a higher level under pressure.  His ability to make impossible saves.   And make 3,4 impossible saves in a row.  Such things offer no guarantee that he will make the NHL.   They do present the Possibility of him being a generational goaltender, however.    Which, imho, is more important than "making the cut".   And something the NHL has not seen in over a decade.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/new-goaltenders-led-by-yaroslav-askarov/

 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

The difference between an Askarov and a Spencer, is that Spencer is ranked high because of his positioning, butterfly style, consistency.   These are all important things but they are "insurance" factors.   They offer a high probability that he will make it to the NHL.   They offer no kind of guarantee that he will be generational.

 

And, a rare full-right goalie, too! 

 

Love. 

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I like Askarov way more than Spencer Knight . 
 

Spencer Knight is an extremely similar prospect  style wise to Gillies. I find Knight relies heavily on his size. College goalies are always a tough study, because they face less rubber than a CHL goalie and in general NCAA teams play with better structure than CHL teams. Knight may well turn out to be a stud, but you have just seen way too many stud college goalies not pan out.


In terms of recent top goalie prospects, in terms of consensus ranking the last handful of years, I would go 

 

Vasilevskiy

Askarov 
Samsonov

 

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21 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I like Askarov way more than Spencer Knight . 
 

Spencer Knight is an extremely similar prospect  style wise to Gillies. I find Knight relies heavily on his size. College goalies are always a tough study, because they face less rubber than a CHL goalie and in general NCAA teams play with better structure than CHL teams. Knight may well turn out to be a stud, but you have just seen way too many stud college goalies not pan out.


In terms of recent top goalie prospects, in terms of consensus ranking the last handful of years, I would go 

 

Vasilevskiy

Askarov 
Samsonov

 

 

Interesting so do we have a chance at him on the 15-range?

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3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I hear your on those first rounders.  It's so true when they're 18.   But, my favourite thing...looking at cup-winners, does show that first-round goalies do get it done.  The next generational goalie does stand a very high chance of going in the first round, you have to take that big risk if you really want them.

 

So, Askarov versus Spencer Knight...this is my take on the scouts, I don't claim to know enough about the situation yet:

 

Askarov is conservatively a step above Spencer even at his most hyped point, and a step above really any goaltending prospect we've seen since Carey Price.   He's Slated to go top 10 but you never know with goalies.  Within the confines of Russia, for his age, there is no comparison.  There has historically never been a Russian goalie this good at his age.

 

Addressing the slight sarcasm/cynicism in your question:  Yes it's warranted.  Always.   But just like we should be cynical, we should also know as much about him as possible imho.

 

The difference between an Askarov and a Spencer, is that Spencer is ranked high because of his positioning, butterfly style, consistency.   These are all important things but they are "insurance" factors.   They offer a high probability that he will make it to the NHL.   They offer no kind of guarantee that he will be generational.

 

Askarov is ranked high purely out of skill, and his ability to seemingly play at a higher level under pressure.  His ability to make impossible saves.   And make 3,4 impossible saves in a row.  Such things offer no guarantee that he will make the NHL.   They do present the Possibility of him being a generational goaltender, however.    Which, imho, is more important than "making the cut".   And something the NHL has not seen in over a decade.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/new-goaltenders-led-by-yaroslav-askarov/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks good.

 

Plus this year, it seems the prospect pool is full of undersized skills guys when we are in need of size.  If Askarov is available then we should pick him.

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55 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Interesting so do we have a chance at him on the 15-range?

I think he goes in the 10-15 range. If the board remains unchanged it would be

9. CHI

10. NJ

11. MIN

12. WPG

13. NYR

14. FLA

15. CBJ

16 CGY

 

Columbus, Florida, and New York aren't picking him and probably not Minnesota, I think they are committed to adding more skill under the direction of Guerin. That leaves you with NJ and CHI. I would also throw Ottawa in the mix as they have a TON of picks and they could trade up to pick him (4 2nd's). NJ with 3 1sts would also be a major threat to pick him

 

It will be interesting, I would love for him to fall to the Flames, but realistically I think he's off the board before 16. If I was to do a mock I would probably go with him to CHI at 9th at the moment

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This fella does some pretty good work on draft prospects, would definitely recommend. Draft dynasty on youtube

 

Jarvis is awful dynamic. When he gets going he looks like the Mcdavid of the WHL the way he can carve up the opposition.

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5 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

This fella does some pretty good work on draft prospects, would definitely recommend. Draft dynasty on youtube

 

Jarvis is awful dynamic. When he gets going he looks like the Mcdavid of the WHL the way he can carve up the opposition.

 

Hmm that's a pretty "meh" highlight package.  A very slow and methodical player.  I'm reading he's comparable to Tyler Johnson and I do see the similarities.  Or a cross of Derek Ryan and Markus Granlund as Flames players.

 

Obviously, this assessment is based off the highlight package alone but I feel Dillon Dube looked much better at the same age.

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If Jack Quinn falls to us, I feel like its a no brainer.  Gunler will be there and I think he would be a great add.  Both these players are goal scorers, something our team really lacks.

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6 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Hmm that's a pretty "meh" highlight package.  A very slow and methodical player.  I'm reading he's comparable to Tyler Johnson and I do see the similarities.  Or a cross of Derek Ryan and Markus Granlund as Flames players.

 

Obviously, this assessment is based off the highlight package alone but I feel Dillon Dube looked much better at the same age.

It’s a tough one because he led his team in scoring by 28 points. Dube had 66 points in his draft year, he wasn’t “the guy” but he also had more around him than Jarvis does. 
 

Yamamoto could be the best comparison overall in terms of size and production. Jarvis is bigger and a better skater than Yamamoto though. 
 

1 hour ago, Sobieit said:

If Jack Quinn falls to us, I feel like its a no brainer.  Gunler will be there and I think he would be a great add.  Both these players are goal scorers, something our team really lacks.

Both of them have a real chance to be there at 16. Especially since, Askarov will be gone and most likely 3 D in the top 15. 

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I am a big fan of Jarvis and I thikn the Flames will like him too. He checks a lot of boxes for what they look for in a player. i probably have him rated right around the middle of the 1st round so he may not be a slam dunk selection but close. For me he has one of the higher ceiling of a player i'm seeing outside the top 10. I get a lot of Dubricant vibes from Jarvis. He'll get knocked during the process because he doesn't fit the exact prototype of what most want in smaller players. He doesn't have the dynamic speed but he is always around it offensively and becausee of how much room there is now in today's game I think his game translate well. If he can get just a bit faster, which i think he can, he's got Nylander like upside. 

 

I loved Dube in his draft year and I think he was a steal for the Flames but I would rank Jarvis higher. Watching Dube's highlights I can see why he would be impressive but again for a smaller frame player he had that speed you look for. Jarvis doesn't, but for me Jarvis is the better finisher and is much more advanced in terms of a Hockey IQ than Dube was. That's not putting down Dube, that's me praising Jarvis. 

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41 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I am a big fan of Jarvis and I thikn the Flames will like him too. He checks a lot of boxes for what they look for in a player. i probably have him rated right around the middle of the 1st round so he may not be a slam dunk selection but close. For me he has one of the higher ceiling of a player i'm seeing outside the top 10. I get a lot of Dubricant vibes from Jarvis. He'll get knocked during the process because he doesn't fit the exact prototype of what most want in smaller players. He doesn't have the dynamic speed but he is always around it offensively and becausee of how much room there is now in today's game I think his game translate well. If he can get just a bit faster, which i think he can, he's got Nylander like upside. 

 

I loved Dube in his draft year and I think he was a steal for the Flames but I would rank Jarvis higher. Watching Dube's highlights I can see why he would be impressive but again for a smaller frame player he had that speed you look for. Jarvis doesn't, but for me Jarvis is the better finisher and is much more advanced in terms of a Hockey IQ than Dube was. That's not putting down Dube, that's me praising Jarvis. 

 

 

Would you put him in the Buffalo's Reinhart category then? Smart, not fast, but good IQ and skill.

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1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

It’s a tough one because he led his team in scoring by 28 points. Dube had 66 points in his draft year, he wasn’t “the guy” but he also had more around him than Jarvis does. 
 

Yamamoto could be the best comparison overall in terms of size and production. Jarvis is bigger and a better skater than Yamamoto though. 
 

Both of them have a real chance to be there at 16. Especially since, Askarov will be gone and most likely 3 D in the top 15. 

 

For me, I want to have a guy that has good speed. Since he's smaller, it's just a retread of a lot of the picks they've made lately. I know it's not true, but the feel is they get a small guy in the first few rounds every year now. I'd rather they pick a D if they go a smaller forward this year. Are there any D guys that have upside in that area of the draft? 

 

I'd like a nice flashy player, but it's beginning to look like our lines are made up of 1-2thirds small players. I wonder how we rank in terms of size in the league? Just for once I'd like them to find some size, skill and motor... 

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16 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

For me, I want to have a guy that has good speed. Since he's smaller, it's just a retread of a lot of the picks they've made lately. I know it's not true, but the feel is they get a small guy in the first few rounds every year now. I'd rather they pick a D if they go a smaller forward this year. Are there any D guys that have upside in that area of the draft? 

 

I'd like a nice flashy player, but it's beginning to look like our lines are made up of 1-2thirds small players. I wonder how we rank in terms of size in the league? Just for once I'd like them to find some size, skill and motor... 

The problem with picking outside of the top 5 is every player has warts. Ideally every player you draft is of the build of Ryan Getzlaf. But those players are so rare, which is why Byfield will probably go 2nd, even if Stutzle and Rossi may be just as good as him. 

 

I don't worry so much about height, I think it's a little overblown by us as Flames fans since Gaudreau is the best offensive player the Flames have and he is very thin. Mangiapane is also "undersized" at 5'10". It all comes down to how the player plays IMO. Mangiapane plays likes he's 6'2', we had Colborne who played like he was 5'7". The height is great, all things being equal but it doesn't mean much if they don't use it or if they can't play the game

 

The Flames drafting has improved as Treliving has settled in but there's a couple of examples to remember

2014 54th overall pick Flames select Hunter Smith 6'7" the Flames drafted for size. I get that it was a Burke pick, but it's still a 2nd round pick wasted

One pick later Anaheim selected "undersized" Brandon Montour, 3 picks later Christian Dvorak was picked.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

For me, I want to have a guy that has good speed. Since he's smaller, it's just a retread of a lot of the picks they've made lately. I know it's not true, but the feel is they get a small guy in the first few rounds every year now. I'd rather they pick a D if they go a smaller forward this year. Are there any D guys that have upside in that area of the draft? 

 

I'd like a nice flashy player, but it's beginning to look like our lines are made up of 1-2thirds small players. I wonder how we rank in terms of size in the league? Just for once I'd like them to find some size, skill and motor... 

 

They are in the bottom 3rd in height and weight.

 

While it seems easy, finding a player who has some flash, size, skill and a motor you basically need a top 10 pick now. Getting those players outside of that range is possible but not probable. And as thebrewcrew mentions in many occasions if you draft players for those metrics and they bust the really bust (as in they are out of the league). 

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41 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The problem with picking outside of the top 5 is every player has warts. Ideally every player you draft is of the build of Ryan Getzlaf...

 

I've said it before, but you poked a sore spot for me. I know that '03 was can't miss, and Dion was pretty good for a few years in Calgary... but how in the hell did they not pick Getzlaf? I mean, it's not like they didn't know he was there. It's not like he had, and continues to have ties to the city. It's not like Neon Dion was ranked higher. And it's not like they didn't need a center to play with that superstar right winger or anything. 

 

For all of the terrible things that everyone has to say about Craig Button, I'd betcha that if he had his job for just a few more months, he'd've drafted Getzlaf. 

 

Love. 

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4 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

The problem with picking outside of the top 5 is every player has warts. Ideally every player you draft is of the build of Ryan Getzlaf. But those players are so rare, which is why Byfield will probably go 2nd, even if Stutzle and Rossi may be just as good as him. 

 

I don't worry so much about height, I think it's a little overblown by us as Flames fans since Gaudreau is the best offensive player the Flames have and he is very thin. Mangiapane is also "undersized" at 5'10". It all comes down to how the player plays IMO. Mangiapane plays likes he's 6'2', we had Colborne who played like he was 5'7". The height is great, all things being equal but it doesn't mean much if they don't use it or if they can't play the game

 

The Flames drafting has improved as Treliving has settled in but there's a couple of examples to remember

2014 54th overall pick Flames select Hunter Smith 6'7" the Flames drafted for size. I get that it was a Burke pick, but it's still a 2nd round pick wasted

One pick later Anaheim selected "undersized" Brandon Montour, 3 picks later Christian Dvorak was picked.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For me, it's having more smaller guys that's the problem. Although, by the time the Flames' pick reaches the NHL Gaudreau could very well be gone by then. I don't mind smaller players. I only mind when lines are built by a lot of them, or there are more than usual on the whole team. It could be easy to wear them down in a playoff series as teams tend to lean on smaller players more, and it's like skating for two people. The Avs weren't super physical, but I think they leaned on the smaller players as much as they could which I thinks tiresome. They definitely closed the gaps. 

 

Ya, I remember the picks from then. I think it is the scouting that seems inept at finding a bigger skilled guy. They're doing a really good job of picking out small skill. I think when a guy is super skilled and fast and small, it's easier to stand out. This is where JJ might have a point about drafting 19 or 20 year olds instead. The older players would be playing against older players for longer and the NHLers might start to stand out more. I think the Flames have done well, but at the same time a lot of the NHLers they're drafting aren't guys that are pushing them over the edge. 

 

Yes we got

 

Tkachuk - (fell to us because Vancouver took Juelevi instead) No Brainer and no need to scout. 

Gaudreau - (he'd go first round nowadays, back then it was a gamble and he helped change that, if he was drafted this year, would we be able to draft him?)

Monahan - (high first rounder, no brainer and Carolina picked Lindholm before him, we may have ended up with Lindholm instead but still no brainer)

Backlund - (First Rounder and took a long time to reach his potential, but a good pick)

Mangiapane -  (A really good pick, but is undersized, plays bigger and holds his own, but probably a 3rd liner and would do well to add some depth scoring, or should be a regular on the PP)

Dube - Good pick, good player, has a lot of upside potential, smaller. 

Bennett - Bust, but how can you not pick him? A good motor, good skill, but his hockey IQ is taking awhile to develop. 

 

I guess they've done a decent job. My biggest concern is not finding a top 6 outside of the top 7 of a draft. You can argue Mangiapane and Dube are trending that way. Mang is basically there. But I guess I mean a game-breaker, bonafide guy. For me, Gaudreau doesn't count, he's an anomaly and in any other circumstance, he'd have gone top 5. Not at the time of course. Drafting has gotten better but still keeping the Flames average. 

 

 

 

On another note...

 

 

Listening to the Fan960, Chris Johnston was talking about the possibility of compensatory picks and how they'll deal with conditions that can't be met. He said a possibility could be giving the Flames a 3rd rounder, but Edmonton doesn't need to give up theirs. They will just add a 3rd round pick in the draft and give it to the Flames. I wonder where they'd put it? Would it be right after the Edmonton pick, or at the end of the 3rd rounder?

 

 

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