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jjgallow

Prospect: Martin Posposil 2018 4th Round pick

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This is a resurrection of a prospect thread lost to the archives.

 

Do we have something here?   Early signs show, maybe.

 

To me, the next question is, are we dealing with a support player in the NHL or can he potentially be more?

 

IMHO, if this is a support player, he could just make the NHL this season given his abilities on the off wing.

 

If he can be more though, I would almost suggest letting him marinate in the AHL for another season.   This looks to be the season where he becomes a top scorer in the AHL.   If so, I'd like to see it.   If he adds a bit more muscle on, he's got the frame to translate that to the NHL.

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16 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

This is a resurrection of a prospect thread lost to the archives.

 

Do we have something here?   Early signs show, maybe.

 

To me, the next question is, are we dealing with a support player in the NHL or can he potentially be more?

 

IMHO, if this is a support player, he could just make the NHL this season given his abilities on the off wing.

 

If he can be more though, I would almost suggest letting him marinate in the AHL for another season.   This looks to be the season where he becomes a top scorer in the AHL.   If so, I'd like to see it.   If he adds a bit more muscle on, he's got the frame to translate that to the NHL.


I hope  that guys like him, Zary and Pelletier can play in the AHL this year. It’ll be good to see them grow together as a part of the next wave of players. I wonder if that’s what hurts guys like Shinkuruk or some of our other prospects, that they don’t have similar talent  to push them and to play with. Baertschi could have used a few years to marinate but we announced he was the next Iginla and gave him keys to the city after 3 goals. He became entitled and it hindered his development. But I wonder if we didn’t give him that 3 game stint and allowed him to grow, what would have been. But in my view, we need to have that depth in the farm of talent to build others up.

 

It must be hard to develop when you’re one of the only decent players on the team. 
 

but with Zary, Pelletier, Ruzicka, and Phillips, pospocil will have the opportunities to grow and play with like-talented players. So hope this means our pool is improving. Be nice if they can grow together… 

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16 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

This is a resurrection of a prospect thread lost to the archives.

 

Do we have something here?   Early signs show, maybe.

 

To me, the next question is, are we dealing with a support player in the NHL or can he potentially be more?

 

IMHO, if this is a support player, he could just make the NHL this season given his abilities on the off wing.

 

If he can be more though, I would almost suggest letting him marinate in the AHL for another season.   This looks to be the season where he becomes a top scorer in the AHL.   If so, I'd like to see it.   If he adds a bit more muscle on, he's got the frame to translate that to the NHL.

 

Perhaps he is a Hathaway type.  

Same grit.

I doubt he becomes a top scorer in the AHL, but he should do well there.

He was finding his mark when derailed by a douchebag.

As long as he walks the line between grit and goon, I am fine.

Don't want to see him fighting in the AHL.

 

It's going to be an interesting AHL season.

Some guys like Zary, Pelletier and Zav may look better than we expect.

Zav reminds me a bit of Mangiapane.

Just a feeling, perhaps not justified.

Has to find his scoring in pro.

 

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37 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Perhaps he is a Hathaway type.  

Same grit.

I doubt he becomes a top scorer in the AHL, but he should do well there.

He was finding his mark when derailed by a douchebag.

As long as he walks the line between grit and goon, I am fine.

Don't want to see him fighting in the AHL.

 

It's going to be an interesting AHL season.

Some guys like Zary, Pelletier and Zav may look better than we expect.

Zav reminds me a bit of Mangiapane.

Just a feeling, perhaps not justified.

Has to find his scoring in pro.

 

 

hmm.

 

I agree on the same grit and intangibles.  

 

But, Posposil is already almost a PPG player in the AHL, from the age of 20... I think we can safely project that he will exceed this if he gets a full AHL season in.

 

Those years from age 18-23 you get that rapid improvement, so in that sense his trajectory interests me.  Hathaway never came anywhere close to offensive production in the AHL, until much later in his career.

 

I'd like to see more.   But my final conclusion will be a bit contrarian.     If I come out of this pre-season agreeing with you that he's a Hathaway, I will vote that he gets promoted to the NHL to fullfill his destiny.   He can make the translation with his size.

 

But if he keeps up these multi-goal games, then, there is a chance he can be more.  In that case, I'd want him to see a full season and playoffs in the AHL.   Grooming him for first or 2nd line minutes and roles.   I am not super excited about that scenario because those are really the minutes I want to see Francis with.   But the two of them relatively evenly sharing lines 1 and 2, could be ok.

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51 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

hmm.

 

I agree on the same grit and intangibles.  

 

But, Posposil is already almost a PPG player in the AHL, from the age of 20... I think we can safely project that he will exceed this if he gets a full AHL season in.

 

Those years from age 18-23 you get that rapid improvement, so in that sense his trajectory interests me.  Hathaway never came anywhere close to offensive production in the AHL, until much later in his career.

 

I'd like to see more.   But my final conclusion will be a bit contrarian.     If I come out of this pre-season agreeing with you that he's a Hathaway, I will vote that he gets promoted to the NHL to fullfill his destiny.   He can make the translation with his size.

 

But if he keeps up these multi-goal games, then, there is a chance he can be more.  In that case, I'd want him to see a full season and playoffs in the AHL.   Grooming him for first or 2nd line minutes and roles.   I am not super excited about that scenario because those are really the minutes I want to see Francis with.   But the two of them relatively evenly sharing lines 1 and 2, could be ok.

 

I look at AHL success as a bit of a red herring.

Mangiapane was about 20-21 when he joined the AHL and was not a P/GP player.

Pos had a very limited season where he was just below being a P/GP player.

I am very leery in suggesting that a deft AHL'er will be a 2nd line player in the NHL.

 

Hathaway became a role player, much like Bennett did here.

It's dependent on the skill level, the work ethic and the opportunity that he can play into.

Ruzicka is easily a more skilled prospect.

May not get there in the NHL.

 

My point is that AHL success and early showing there means little.

How they look in camp and when an injury comes up determines their NHL fate.

So many AHL tweeners.

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31 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I look at AHL success as a bit of a red herring.

Mangiapane was about 20-21 when he joined the AHL and was not a P/GP player.

Pos had a very limited season where he was just below being a P/GP player.

I am very leery in suggesting that a deft AHL'er will be a 2nd line player in the NHL.

 

Hathaway became a role player, much like Bennett did here.

It's dependent on the skill level, the work ethic and the opportunity that he can play into.

Ruzicka is easily a more skilled prospect.

May not get there in the NHL.

 

My point is that AHL success and early showing there means little.

How they look in camp and when an injury comes up determines their NHL fate.

So many AHL tweeners.

 

Agreed with a lot of this, but, with that in mind, it's not all random.   Instead of saying "means very little", I might say "is complex and and only one factor in the evaluation".

 

So Mangiapane was super tiny, not unlike Francis, and also we had some first rounders who were given more of the minutes to back then.  

 

Posposil has the size and skills that I believe will translate fairly well between AHL and NHL.   What he can do in the AHL will translate better for him than a much smaller player.      I am Not totally sold on him yet, actually never gave him a second thought until recently.    But, to your point, Pospisal was also stuck behind some players in the AHL and did reasonably well in a very limited showing last year.  Better than Mangiapane.

 

So, yes, Mangiapane is a great player, I'm still not convinced he's a core player, and I am Very sure that it is possible to produce a player better than Mangiapane, all due respect to him.   

 

Maybe all this is meaningless.   Or, maybe, Pospisil's ceiling is a bit higher than we thought.    He is, rightfully, outperforming Mangiapane at the same age, showing a high improvement curve, and he has the size to translate it.

 

I'm not prepared to annoint Pospisil at this stage, not entirely disagreeing with you.    But I am interested.   It is not entirely outside the realm of possibility that he's...simply...better than Mangiapane at the same age and has improved to a level we didn't really expect.   Yet to be confirmed.    And if so, he's still not out of the woods because Mangiapane showed rapid improvement over his next 4 years.     IF Pospisil were to do the same, Maybe,,,he could actually become a better player than Mangiapane.

 

Or maybe I'm full of poo.    But, in that case, we should just promote him and get him started in a role.

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I don't think I am really sure of what Pos is.  I knew what Mangiapane was coming in and knew that he would be a gamer in the NHL.

Pos had a ton of points in the USHL, but not many goals.

As a player, he was know for being brutal.

Not the mark I am looking for as a primary thing, but it is an attribute.

Want to see what he is away from the goonery.

 

Is he really better than Mangiapane at an earlier age?

Bigger - yes.

21 points in 40 games as a 20 to 21 year old

Mangiapane had 41 in 66 games as a 1st year pro (20-21 years old).

Stayed one extra season as a 19/20 year old due to birthdate.

 

Look, all I am saying is that he has skill and could improve on that part.

Not big enough to be a power forward.

Don't want him to be.

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I see a lot of Ferland in Posposil, in that both have good skill/skating for their size but both can play a physical game if they want to. I did like Ferland more at the same age, I think he was the better skater and puck handler, but I am equally intrigued by Posposil as I was Ferland.  

 

I do struggle to see Posposil reaching a top 6 role though as I see the situation lining up pretty similar to how Ferland's did in the sense of finding a role. Like Ferland I don't think I see the type of shot or vision that will let him grow into a top 6 role, I see more of that middle 6 or bottom 6 player who can be really effective at both playing the game 5 on 5 but brining a physical element. While his numbers at the AHL were very encouraging, I watched most of his games and he isn't creating the majority of his offence, it's coming from finishing the play. Not to knock him for that, it's just I don't see the Mang comp nor do I see that type of upside in his game. 

 

so for me, he is the type of player where finding a role for will be important but having said all of this coming off a major knee injury he 100% should be in the AHL. Too soon, and too limited time in the AHL to try and cast him in a role right now he can still write his own path. 

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21 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I see a lot of Ferland in Posposil, in that both have good skill/skating for their size but both can play a physical game if they want to. I did like Ferland more at the same age, I think he was the better skater and puck handler, but I am equally intrigued by Posposil as I was Ferland.  

 

I do struggle to see Posposil reaching a top 6 role though as I see the situation lining up pretty similar to how Ferland's did in the sense of finding a role. Like Ferland I don't think I see the type of shot or vision that will let him grow into a top 6 role, I see more of that middle 6 or bottom 6 player who can be really effective at both playing the game 5 on 5 but brining a physical element. While his numbers at the AHL were very encouraging, I watched most of his games and he isn't creating the majority of his offence, it's coming from finishing the play. Not to knock him for that, it's just I don't see the Mang comp nor do I see that type of upside in his game. 

 

so for me, he is the type of player where finding a role for will be important but having said all of this coming off a major knee injury he 100% should be in the AHL. Too soon, and too limited time in the AHL to try and cast him in a role right now he can still write his own path. 

 

I didn't know about the knee injury.   In that case, AHL yes.    He has one big thing going for him that Ferland didn't, he seems to have the RW fake mastered a little better.     Well another year in the AHL will be interesting, he will be given an opportunity in more important roles.    A little frustrating in the sense that I wanted Francis to be given all those minutes but there are still ample development minutes to go around, it's not like we're awash with options on RW.

 

I do find, guys like this which don't immediately show top 6 potential....but maybe just flashes of it, if they are to have any success at all coming close to that, it's by spending a bit more time in the AHL.   True of both Ferland and Mangiapane and many others.    So I take it back.   Clear AHL candidate.

 

Now that I've said that, it has all but assured he will start with the Flames lol.

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