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  2. Tank has a huge amount of risk, so it's mostly a cap dump for them. I could do without taking a full cap hit, but so be it. Tkachuk + Monahan = $13.35m today and $14m+ in the future. Kyrou + Eichel + Tank = $19.5 (Kyrou on 2 year bridge deal). $17.5m is a bit easier to swallow. Still tough. Short term is really the issue. Gaudreau's next deal, and waiting for Lucic's deal to end. Pipe dream for sure. Without Tarasenko, we would still need a Kyrou or similar.
  3. I think the close to home thing gets a little overblown. Reality is its not that big of a deal to a lot of players, and many would actually prefer being away. I don't know Monahan but what I can gather from his 8 years in Calgary is that he isn't about the celebrity of being a professional athlete I could very well see him as a guy to put every Canadian city on his no list and being content living in the southern U.S where he can just focus on playing hockey and live a more private life.
  4. Hey hey! I’m liking that suggestion TD if St. Loo will go for it. I’m not sure you can get both Tarasenko and Kyrou for Monahan alone, so asking them to eat $2m salary on top seems like a lot to me - but what do I know? If they’ll do it, go for it. But only if we’re getting Eichel as well. Will our cap work with Kyrou + Eichel + Tarasenko minus Monahan? We’d be pretty scary with Eichel and Tarasenko.
  5. Today
  6. travel_dude

    UFA 2021

    I'm not in favor of Gus. I believe Zadorov played top minutes last year, so there is some expected missteps. I would prefer we add an offensive D-man to balance out th D.
  7. Yesterday
  8. I don't know how available Monahan really is. I think the Flames would love to upgrade Monahan, but just trading him leaves you Lindholm, Backlund, then really nobody down the middle. I do think that if the Flames manage to get Eichel, and Monahan isn't in the trade, you will see Monahan moved shortly after. I don't see Monahan/Tkachuk both going out if there is a trade for Eichel. Buffalo apparently isn't looking for players, and would prefer to get futures. Realistically they will probably need to take someone back to make the salary work, but I don't see them taking on two big contracts. I also think that is too much going out considering the injury risk and media circus.
  9. kehatch

    UFA 2021

    I don't think Gustafsson is the answer. He had 0 PP goals last season despite getting over 2-min per night, and his defensive game isn't strong enough for a team that is going to have to win 2 to 1 a lot of nights. I would love to see the Flames bring on another D that can play both 5 on 5 and on the PP, but I don't think we can afford a PP specialist. Especially one that hasn't been scoring in a couple of seasons. I don't think Zadorov has questionable defense though. He was on a bad Chicago team and he is still young, so he had the occasionally bad shift. But overall I think he is a defensively focused and capable player. I could be wrong though.
  10. kehatch

    Goaltending

    Also to be fair, three of those goalies were drafted in the top 5. Any player drafted in the top 5 has a good chance of turning into an NHL player. There are also not often goalies in any draft year that justify a high pick like that. When they are in the draft, they get picked and often turn out. I don't think its a mystery. The higher you draft the better chance you have of getting the best player. That is true of all positions. Goalies are a bit of a mystery come draft day since they generally take longer to develop and they are impacted so much by the team in front of them. That lack of confidence causes many teams to avoid high picks on goalies. But getting the first goalie in the draft (regardless of pick number) means you had your pick of the bunch.
  11. travel_dude

    UFA 2021

    As a PP QB he makes sense, but I worry about his ability to defend. He's not as bad as Kylington, but still an adventure. Is that what we want to complete the transition from Gio? Zadorov and Gustafsson both a little questionable on defense?
  12. Monahan + Tkachuk is a big offer. I wouldn't do that myself, though I get the reasons. Here's a weird offer, stepping away from the Eichel deal for a minute. Monahan for Tarasenko ($2m retained) + Kyrou or Thomas. This brings us a RW and C, and works well combined with an Eichel trade. It resets the core. STL does this to move on from Tank; cost of doing business. Monahan gets them a top 6 C at a reasonable age. Monahan waives easily (if not already a listd team). Gaudreau-Eichel-Thomas/Kyrou Coleman-Lindholm-Tarasenko Mangiapane-Backlund-Dube Lucic-Lewis-Pitlick Tarasenko could be top line, but I would prefer to build a younger group. Mangiapane continues to be a top 6 threat, but stays at or below his potential seeding. This is clearly a win now or in the next 2-3 years. MOnahan for Tarasenko a bit in the wrong sirection, but he still has a few years of prime left. The real prize is Kyrou or Thomas; future stars.
  13. Ottawa and VGK are looking for the C position allegedly. Bruce Garioch (of Ottawa) has reported many times about Monahan being available. Personally, I’m surprised something hasn’t materialized between us and Ott for Monahan since he’s not only an ontario boy, but he played for the Ottawa 67’s. He’s a known commodity there and a player the fan base knows well. But - that tells me that either Ottawa isn’t interested in Monahan, Melnyk isn’t interested in his salary (even though it’s a pretty good bargain), Ottawa isn’t interested in meeting our asking price, or we’ve been working another trade with Monahan involved. When I look at Buffalo’s roster and see how far from the cap floor they are and the fact they’re trading away a C in Eichel that makes $10m per season, I don’t see a scenario where “futures only” is a solution for them. Saying that, they’re not going to give Eichel away for spare parts making too much money - Skinner’s contract nullifies any kind of thinking like that - but, getting a C in return (Monahan) surely would be at least of interest to Buffalo. They need to fill that position that Eichel is going to leave vacant. It’s not a choice. Perhaps Mony won’t waive to go to Buffalo, though, I don’t think it would be as cut and dry as that given the proximity to family and Ontario and the Eastern timezone. Furthermore, he has been demoted to line 2 and separated from Johnny with Sutter’s arrival, so perhaps opportunity to regain his form and #1 C position would be somewhat of interest. Mony alone doesn’t make a trade happen of course, but my gut tells me that if we’re involved in any trade with Buffalo, Mony is a piece being discussed. Spitballing here - what if Mony and Chucky were involved in the trade? That, in my eyes, would significantly reduce the additional pieces required for an Eichel trade. It’s steep for sure, but does Monahan re-sign with us in 2 years playing as 2C? Chucky, as much as I like everything about him (his moxie, tenacity, future captain potential) there’s something about his game that doesn’t scream elite to me and he’s going to command $7-$9m per year? we also saw what happens when he loses his game… If there’s a way to keep Chucky you do it, if not, you say goodbye to a potential future captain to get a current-day captain, and get to keep more in the prospect pool to help fill out the team in years to come. Edit - I’d also be looking at including Kylington in that trade to Buff. They’re looking for D as well and he’s young and has potential. I’m a bit miffed that he hasn’t gotten a fair shake with us (not surprised tho - re: Bennett) but cut bait with the poor kid and give him a shot elsewhere. So, Mony + Kyller + 1 of Chucky *or* some variation of lottery protected 1st round picks / prospects.
  14. travel_dude

    UFA 2021

    An interesting look at Ryan Murray: https://flamesnation.ca/2021/08/01/2021-flames-ufa-targets-ryan-murray/
  15. jjgallow

    Goaltending

    Just this yes, and thank you kehatch I appreciate that. This is really what I was trying to show. And I do actually believe goalie scouting is improving (it gets easier when the NHL pretty much made it impossible for normal size goalies to compete). A couple things to note: The list above goes as recent as 2020. 1. Jake Oettinger, Spencer Knight are both JUST starting of find their strides in big big ways, Askarov likely next year or the year after. Between the three it's fair to assume more cups may be on the way, and that all three will soon reach or are already at elite status. 2. Of those 3 goalies who won cups, that accounts for....5 Stanley cups, if my memory services me correctly? Roughly 25% of all cups in this time. From just one of 7 rounds plus undrafted. So, the thing is it's time consuming to go through all the rounds but I think we can safely say from this, and thank you @rocketdoctor, that no other drafting round will come anywhere close to producing this many starters or this many Stanley Cups. We know this because nearly all goalies are drafted in later rounds, plus the remaining 75% divided by 6 rounds plus undrafted. I would guess you need to draft something like 5-10 goalies in later rounds to get the same odds as in the first round. Basically the Flames could have made up for passing on Wallstedt by using all of their remaining picks on goalies, lol. In conclusion: Drafting goalies in the first round is risky, but so is drafting forwards and defencemen. Drafting is risky. Sure, goalies are slightly riskier but it also comes with greater potential reward. Drafting goalies in later rounds is even riskier, should a team's objective be the highest percentage chance of winning a cup. The old wives tale that goalies are risky in the first round, is technically true, but also true in every other round. That risk is met with having the best chance at finding a cup winning goalie, as well as a starter, in that first round.
  16. true, thats just curb appeal.. TBH I'm glad its not some big behemoth in the middle of the neighborhood
  17. MP5029

    UFA 2021

    Gustafson on a 1-2 year deal at around 2 mil per would be reasonable…max 3 years at 2.5 after that it’s not worth it whatsoever…even 3x2.5 is getting questionable
  18. kehatch

    Goaltending

    Good data. But to be fair, 4 out of 11 picks translating to starting goalies (3 elite) is very good.
  19. kehatch

    Goaltending

    Starting goalies with a SC since the cap was introduced, draft position included: Vasilevskiy (19) Binnington (88) Holtby (93) Fleury (1) Murray (83) Crawford (52) Quick (72) Thomas (217) Niemi (Undrafted) Osgood (54) Giguere (13) Ward (25) A third of them are first round picks, with half of them selected in the first two rounds. Drafting a goalie in the first or second round certainly helps, but it isn't essential. More notable to me is that nearly every goalie on the list was drafted and developed by the team they won the cup on.
  20. Hmm really? Recent years goalies taken in round 1 2020 - Askarov 11th 2019 - Knight 13th 2018 - None 2017 - Jake Oetteinger 26th 2016 - None 2015 - Samsonov 22nd 2014 - None 2013 - None 2012 - Vasilevskey 19th Subban 24th 2011 - None 2010 - Campbell 11th 2009 - none 2008 - Pickard 18th 2007 - none 2006 - Bernier 2005 - Price 5th 2004 - Montoya 6th 2003 - Fleury 1st 2002 - Lehoten 2nd 2001 - Leclaire 8th 2000 - DiPietro 1st 3 goalies won Stanley cups in that list and Bernier did not play a game as a back up to Quick. Of the 15 goalies listed Elite Fleury Vasilevsky Price Good Lehoten Okay Bernier Campbell Meh DiPietro Leclarie Montoya Pickard Subban Too early Knight Askarov Oettinger Samsonov 3 eltie goalies taken in the 1st round in the last 21 years!! The other 29 teams are obviously doing something just as wrong as the Flames are.
  21. The Flames had a couple of players take step a step forward last season, signed Mackay, had a strong 21 draft, and didn't really see anyone depart / take a step back / etc. It was a short season so I take it for what it is. But guys like Phillips, Mackay, Zary, Wolf, Coronato, etc are worth getting excited for. I also think we have a few guys like Ruzika, Pelletier, Poirier, etc who have a really good chance of playing.
  22. cross16

    UFA 2021

    I’m thinking less than what he got last year, which was 1 year 3mill AAV.
  23. Zary, Valimaki, and Coronato are what show up as potential starts in that model and drive the Flames higher. They also have a lot of depth that again show up well as expected NHLers I’m that model. 6 is high for me too, that’s just a model that looks at projecting probabilities for nhlers based on their production in different leagues. However I do think the Flames are in the top half of the league with their prospect pool. It’s much deeper than fans give them credit for imo
  24. cross16

    UFA 2021

    I wonder if the Flames would take a look at Erik Gustafsson again. He was a good fit here and their PP was dynamite with him. I know they didn’t re sign him last year but it didn’t really make sense to with the makeup of their d. Makes a lot more sense this year.
  25. It wouldn't be the first time I was surprised by a return, and given the flat cap, desire to move Eichel west, injury risk, and media circus this is primed for a surprise. But I don't see that getting it done. Buffalo doesn't need Backlund, and the rest doesn't get it done. I expect your looking at Tkachuk, a solid prospect, and a first. Maybe we can change Tkachuk to Monahan if Buffalo can flip him for futures.
  26. dube/pelletier/backlund and brad Treliving for Eichel/ some random position player that we are short on and Kevin Adams
  27. Last week
  28. jjgallow

    UFA 2021

    I won't be negative forever, at least I don't think. Everything happens in cycles and our time will come.
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