After a few days for things to settle in I'm going to make what I will Attempt to be me final and more level headed comments on what was a disappointing draft to me, and why.
I have no issues with Terry and his assessment.
What I have issues with, is when Terry says "this is not a skill guy", and the Flames are like "well we're only trusting players evaluated by Terry so let's take him"
Which is literally what happened.
I will also do my best to support said players as a fan, and I have no issues with them. I didn't dislike anyone they drafted, and that's good. They also didn't draft off the board, and that's good. But, they didn't draft BPA, not anywhere close and this will hurt them.
It was clear from who they picked, that they did not have an entire list of the draft. Which imho, you need in 2021, because things Never go as planned. They drafted in a way that suggests they had a small short-list of players ranked roughly around each their picks. Which means they can never upgrade, because they don't have rankings above those picks. They can only downgrade, when enough players on their short list remain available. That would all be fine, if drafts went like the book. They don't. Multiple times, Highly talented players dropped below their rankings to the Flames. Every single time (except in the 7th round), the Flames passed on said players. Because they never ranked them, I believe. The 7th round is the Only round where they just went by national rankings and took the BPA. And Button said as much after the draft, that they only considered national rankings in the 7th round.
Again I have no issues with these scouts, but I do have an issue that the Flames draft as if it were 1980 and elite NHL compatible hockey players could only be found from a few select locations in the world. Canada, Sweden, and...well, that's it outside of the first round. And preferably specific areas in Canada and Sweden. It's unfortunate because after the international experience of the Calgary Olympics the Flames were really ground breakers in taking players from other parts of the world. But it was an unfinished experiment that they abandoned. Anyway, in 2021 it is hurting them in a bad bad way and also how I see the world it's not very Canadian of us. We lost on some incredible talent because we did not have a network of scouts capable of reporting on them. And Button's comments confirm this, half they players they drafted they did so because one way or another they happened to see the player a couple times. Multiple teams (such as Tampa, and before them the Red Wings) have evolved past this kind of drafting. Teams that can't, are being hurt.
I was happy with their 7th round pick, but the draft is by definition a gamble. When you pick safe players with low ceilings, you are the first to lose that gamble. This is not a consolation prize based sport. Goaltending is the most important position in the game, and at the draft we treat it like the least important. The results are evident in our goaltending on the Flames. Anyway, more of my thoughts on positional drafting below:
I need to learn my manners like you lol. Start off with a compliment. End with a compliment.
Facts...in the middle. lol. I'll need some practice but I'll get there.
So, Goaltending is a part of this too. Defence is a part of it. RHS is a part of it. Let's just call it positional value. The Flames drafted almost entirely at the lowest positional value in hockey (LW). Yes, part of it is that there are more of them, but if you have your valuations adjusted appropriately, then there shouldn't be.
The Flames have not adjusted appropriately.
This is a contentious issue for me because I am a huge believer in BPA. Which means if you think a LW is even slightly more valuable than a RW or RHS D, technically, you take the LW. But, this ONLY works if you have some adjustment factor in there. A RW is always going to be ~25% more valuable than an equivalent LW. As an example. A RHSD, maybe 30%. A goalie, maybe 35%, but also maybe 20% more risk.
The Flames aren't doing any of that. They came into this draft with box-like thinking and drafts aren't kind to box thinkers. They had no intentions of drafting a goalie until the 7th round. This is a really bad idea because drafting by position makes BPA impossible. And sure enough we missed out on Wallstedt and Cossa and others. Is it because we didn't like Wallstedt? I highly doubt it. My guess is we decided he wasn't available and never even interviewed him. Ok, so we're not the only team with this issue. I've come to terms with that. But that doesn't change my expectations for the Flames. I don't think they intended to draft LHS and LW as much as they did. IMHO that goes back to two issues:
1. Highly limited regional drafting, as discussed above
2. Incorrectly adjusted positional valuations
Simply put, if you watched how the Flames drafted it would seem like LHS and LW was the most valuable in the game. This is a direct function of them drafting from an artificially limited sample size, and then not adjusting properly for positional values. Had they put the effort into ranking all the players, and sure maybe with a Very small reject list, then they would always have the ability to choose between very similarly skilled LHS and RHS players, D, etc. But we limited ourselves to the shallow end and we got the leftovers of that small pool.