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MILAN LUCIC

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3 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

If it were this easy don't you think Flames would have done it? Are you prepared to lose Dube or a 1st round pick over it?

 

This talk about Lucic's contract being buyout proof needs to stop as it is not true, Neal's is actually the rougher buyout. Cost you almost 12 million in cash and 6 years of 2million of dead cap hit.

 

Lucic cost you 3mill in cash to buyout and 3 years of 4.8 mill, 3.5 mill and 4.8 mill of dead cap and then 3 years of only 500k of dead cap. It's a sunk cost but the sunk cost was there with Neal so once you realize that it's the easier deal to actually buyout. 

 

I don't like giving him as many opportunities as ward does but I have not minded Lucic's game this year at all. Playing his role above avg IMO. The contract will always suck but again this is a sunk cost that the Flames simply were not getting rid of so at least the Flames found a way to get a useful player out of it. 

The only caveat I would add though is that the cap savings on two of those three years is less than a league minimum contract.  So if you were to buy him out, presumably you add another player to the roster to take his place, and even if that player makes league minimum you still wind up paying more in total cap expenditures than just letting the guy play.

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1 hour ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said:

That's alot of complicated math for the average Oilers fan.  Maybe thats why they still think they got the land slide deal.

 

In fairness to them the contract was sold by the media as buyout proof. So unless you go and do the calculation it is easy to fall into that trap, i was there for some time too. 

 

You also have to be OK with a lot of dead cap space but if you can avoid that sunk cost fallacy it becomes an easy deal to consider buying out IMO. Certainly it's an easier pitch to ownership. 

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19 minutes ago, ABC923 said:

The only caveat I would add though is that the cap savings on two of those three years is less than a league minimum contract.  So if you were to buy him out, presumably you add another player to the roster to take his place, and even if that player makes league minimum you still wind up paying more in total cap expenditures than just letting the guy play.

 

Which is a good and fair point. I will add that I think it's unlikely the Flames would pursue a buyout this soon. I could maybe foresee it next summer, pre expansion draft, but we'll see. 

 

I just think there is more flexibility then people think or that was first reported and there is flexibility to move on from Lucic if the Flames were motivated to and IMO there is more flexibility to do so then with Neal. Mainly due to the buyout cost. 

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I don't think we see a Lucic buyout for another full season.  Having 4 vs 6 years of cap penalty is a big deal.

 

What i'm more wondering is a Michael Stone situation where maybe we buyout Lucic and then re-sign him to league minimum.

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24 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

I don't think we see a Lucic buyout for another full season.  Having 4 vs 6 years of cap penalty is a big deal.

 

Than after next season, his modified NTC kicks in (list of 8 teams he can be traded to) and then the following season (list of 10 teams he can be traded to)...

 

Might have to retain a bit of salary, but it could be an option...

 

24 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

What i'm more wondering is a Michael Stone situation where maybe we buyout Lucic and then re-sign him to league minimum.

 

Could also be an option...

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, cross16 said:

This talk about Lucic's contract being buyout proof needs to stop as it is not true, Neal's is actually the rougher buyout. Cost you almost 12 million in cash and 6 years of 2million of dead cap hit.

 

Lucic cost you 3mill in cash to buyout and 3 years of 4.8 mill, 3.5 mill and 4.8 mill of dead cap and then 3 years of only 500k of dead cap. It's a sunk cost but the sunk cost was there with Neal so once you realize that it's the easier deal to actually buyout. 

 

I don't like giving him as many opportunities as ward does but I have not minded Lucic's game this year at all. Playing his role above avg IMO. The contract will always suck but again this is a sunk cost that the Flames simply were not getting rid of

 

Agreed, that's the way I have looked at it since the trade as well...

 

4 hours ago, cross16 said:

at least the Flames found a way to get a useful player out of it. 

 

That's the thing...   and if I recall correctly, it's got to be getting close to 2 months since Neal has scored, and if he is not putting up points, he's pretty much useless...

 

At least Looch can fill a role, and it's a role that the Flames needed to address...

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2 hours ago, Carty said:

 

Agreed, that's the way I have looked at it since the trade as well...

 

 

That's the thing...   and if I recall correctly, it's got to be getting close to 2 months since Neal has scored, and if he is not putting up points, he's pretty much useless...

 

At least Looch can fill a role, and it's a role that the Flames needed to address...

 

Since Nov 1st:

 

5 on 5

Neal - 2 Goals 5 points

Lucic - 1 Goal 6 points

 

All situations:

Neal 8 goals 16 points

Lucic 5 goals 10 points

 

And Lucic is the better defensive player by quite a bit. Took some time but the trade has certainly developed into what it always was IMO. Problem for a problem with a small upgrade to an area that each time needed. 

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1 hour ago, Carty said:

 

Agreed, that's the way I have looked at it since the trade as well...

 

 

That's the thing...   and if I recall correctly, it's got to be getting close to 2 months since Neal has scored, and if he is not putting up points, he's pretty much useless...

 

At least Looch can fill a role, and it's a role that the Flames needed to address...

 

Neal has been injured for a few games now and looks to be no closer to starting,

He's not hurting the Oilers right now.

:) 

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54 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

Interesting , although i have loved his play of late .. this tells me we may not have this contract long term after all

 

https://flamesnation.ca/2020/02/16/milan-lucic-considered-quitting-in-november/

Sounds like the problems he was having early on (Peters) seem to be gone.  Goes to show what a defined role can do for a players confidence.

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I have to admit, Lucic has been playing much better the last couple of weeks.  He seems a lot more engaged.  Probably not worth the salary, but he is working as hard as anyone else on the team.  Leading by example.  

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On 2/16/2020 at 11:16 AM, phoenix66 said:

Interesting , although i have loved his play of late .. this tells me we may not have this contract long term after all

 

https://flamesnation.ca/2020/02/16/milan-lucic-considered-quitting-in-november/

 

I mean I don't know Lucic but count me as skeptical this is true. Feels like a pretty media drive thing to say, i'm sure he was frustrated but out right quit? I remain skeptical. 

 

My takeaway is it does just re affirm that things were not good around this team to start the year. Bit of a toxic culture it appears and while there are many things to dislike about the Flames game they do seem to be a fairly positive team with a close nit group. Nice to see Lucic feed off that and I also agree he's been pretty good lately. 

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11 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

I mean I don't know Lucic but count me as skeptical this is true. Feels like a pretty media drive thing to say, i'm sure he was frustrated but out right quit? I remain skeptical. 

 

My takeaway is it does just re affirm that things were not good around this team to start the year. Bit of a toxic culture it appears and while there are many things to dislike about the Flames game they do seem to be a fairly positive team with a close nit group. Nice to see Lucic feed off that and I also agree he's been pretty good lately. 

may have been heat of the moment , but i was watching the after hours interview myself, and he definitely did say that 

he does strike me as a proud guy, if he ever hits the point where he feels the game has really passed him by,and hes no longer contributing and "having fun" as he put it ,  I could see him retiring as opposed to riding out the paycheck

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12 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

may have been heat of the moment , but i was watching the after hours interview myself, and he definitely did say that 

he does strike me as a proud guy, if he ever hits the point where he feels the game has really passed him by,and hes no longer contributing and "having fun" as he put it ,  I could see him retiring as opposed to riding out the paycheck

 

yes I do know he said it i'm just not sure how real it is. Feels like something you say when you know you are being interviewed that is a bit of a hyperbole. I just didn't view it as a serious comment. 

 

Doesn't really matter, i'm just skeptical he's going to retire at any point with the contract he has. 

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On 2/16/2020 at 11:16 AM, phoenix66 said:

Interesting , although i have loved his play of late .. this tells me we may not have this contract long term after all

 

https://flamesnation.ca/2020/02/16/milan-lucic-considered-quitting-in-november/

 

Damn it, we fired Peters too soon.  He could've helped us clear $5.25-mil of deadspace.

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14 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

yes I do know he said it i'm just not sure how real it is. Feels like something you say when you know you are being interviewed that is a bit of a hyperbole. I just didn't view it as a serious comment. 

 

Doesn't really matter, i'm just skeptical he's going to retire at any point with the contract he has. 

 

18 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

may have been heat of the moment , but i was watching the after hours interview myself, and he definitely did say that 

he does strike me as a proud guy, if he ever hits the point where he feels the game has really passed him by,and hes no longer contributing and "having fun" as he put it ,  I could see him retiring as opposed to riding out the paycheck

 

I wonder how many times I've wanted to quit my jobs because it can be challenging sometimes. I'd want to quit as well if it were me. I don't think that benching players helps. I think it's actually hard on their morale and it's probably what has contributed to Bennett, Jankowski and other's slow starts. Playing scared of losing time makes you play safe. Sometimes safe makes mistakes because you're too cautious. 

 

I wonder if there's not enough freedom for some of these guys. Bennett is a guy with more talent/skill than we see (I think). The same goes for Jankowski who has had between 15-20 goals in his first two seasons. 

You don't score when you're stapled to the bench. When you do get on, I bet you can go go go, but then if you're benched for a mistake, then you become lethargic and not try to make mistakes.

 

I don't remember who I was listening to this year, but they attributed some success to getting minutes despite making mistakes. If they're not free to make mistakes, how are they learning. For me, when I make one, I feel Satoshi Nakamototier than anyone else on the bench. I am the first to say, I made the mistake. Be better, self.... 

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James Neal: Corsi: 51.1%, O-zone Starts: 75.4%, Expected Goals%: 51.65, Actual Goals Percent: 38.8%

Milan Lucic: Corsi: 49.9%, O-zone starts: 50.4%, Expected Goals%: 50.5, Actual Goals Percent: 51.8%

 

I know it's incomplete, but these fancy stats tell us:

a) Neal is extremely sheltered with a huge skew toward offensive zone starts, Lucic is almost 50-50.

b) With Neal on the ice, the Oilers are leaking goals at 5v5, Lucic is holding his own.

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1 hour ago, ABC923 said:

James Neal: Corsi: 51.1%, O-zone Starts: 75.4%, Expected Goals%: 51.65, Actual Goals Percent: 38.8%

Milan Lucic: Corsi: 49.9%, O-zone starts: 50.4%, Expected Goals%: 50.5, Actual Goals Percent: 51.8%

 

I know it's incomplete, but these fancy stats tell us:

a) Neal is extremely sheltered with a huge skew toward offensive zone starts, Lucic is almost 50-50.

b) With Neal on the ice, the Oilers are leaking goals at 5v5, Lucic is holding his own.

 

Unless Neal scores a PP goal, he is a drain on his line.

Play him with McD, and that line doesn't score 5v5.

Same with playing him on Draisaitl's line.

They are winning because Yamamoto doesn;t negatively affect Draisaitl.

As soon as Neal is healthy, the Oilers will start losing more than they win.

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James Neal returning to the lineup tonight. Needs 2 goals, and Lucic less than 5, for the Flames to get that 3rd round pick. 

 

Neal was goalless in 8 straight and has only scored in 3 of his last 24 games dating back to November 23rd. 

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36 minutes ago, cross16 said:

James Neal returning to the lineup tonight. Needs 2 goals, and Lucic less than 5, for the Flames to get that 3rd round pick. 

 

Neal was goalless in 8 straight and has only scored in 3 of his last 24 games dating back to November 23rd. 

 

 

Let's hope he gets some PP time!

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2 hours ago, cross16 said:

James Neal returning to the lineup tonight. Needs 2 goals, and Lucic less than 5, for the Flames to get that 3rd round pick. 

 

Neal was goalless in 8 straight and has only scored in 3 of his last 24 games dating back to November 23rd. 

 

He was basically replace even before he injured his foot.

Wonder how he will like 3rd line with Khaira?

He will probably get top PP time, but they did as good or better with him not on the roster.

 

Realistically, he should be able to get 2 goals in 16 games.

We hope.

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On 3/3/2020 at 3:08 PM, travel_dude said:

 

He was basically replace even before he injured his foot.

Wonder how he will like 3rd line with Khaira?

He will probably get top PP time, but they did as good or better with him not on the roster.

 

Realistically, he should be able to get 2 goals in 16 games.

We hope.

I’m beginning to doubt he will score 2 more.  Seems to have reverted completely back to 2019 Neal, and is on the fourth line now.

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6 hours ago, ABC923 said:

I’m beginning to doubt he will score 2 more.  Seems to have reverted completely back to 2019 Neal, and is on the fourth line now.

 

He went from top line with McD last game to 4th line with Khaira and Chaisson this game.

I was surprised to see him showing some grit, but really he was just playing dirty.

He's completely useless.

They are going to buy him out next season.

Too slow for the NHL.

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I'm happy to see Lucic playing with confidence.

He was one of the better stories of tonight's game.

Will be very usefull in the playoffs.

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8 hours ago, travel_dude said:

I'm happy to see Lucic playing with confidence.

He was one of the better stories of tonight's game.

Will be very usefull in the playoffs.


Agreed. It was one of those nights where I feel he took the team on his back and said “follow me”. Got the party started for us for sure. 

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